Post by Handsome Pete on Nov 9, 2021 18:54:13 GMT -5
With the announcement of a forthcoming Tournament of Champions, I thought it might be fun to refresh everyone on the 16 6.0 champions we've had, evaluate how they stack up, and highlight any stats or trends of note. To do so, I pulled information about the teams, and compared the team stats among each other, as well as among all the teams of 6.0.
Meet the Teams
Here are the 16 teams, along with their regular season and post-season records, Ortg and Drtg and SRS. I sorted the list by SRS because that was my best guess as to how they might be seeded. As you can see, the Sixers, Knicks and Lakers title teams all make up the top 6 SRS, which seems about right, and it matches the fracs and W-L records pretty closely as well.
If the tournament is seeded by SRS, that would mean our expected 1st round matchups would be:
- 13 Lakers vs. 07 Suns
- 03 Sixers vs. 11 Bobcats
- 14 Knicks vs. 06 Chaps
- 02 Sixers vs. 08 Amigos
- 10 Knicks vs. 12 Grizzlies
- 15 Lakers vs. 01 Grizzlies
- 00 Mavs vs. 09 Hawks
- 04 Chaps vs. 05 Nets
Some takeaways from looking at the offensive statistics:
- The raw offensive stats are pretty much all skewed to favor more recent teams. This makes sense as our leaguewide pace and efficiency has grown so much since creation (20s does a great job illustrating that here)
- One stat that hasn't improved is Steals per game. This also makes sense, as turnovers decreased and we can reasonably infer that leaguewide handling has gotten a bit better since creation, meaning even if steal ratings are higher, we aren't seeing as many steals. However, SPG is trending up with the most recent champs, so this may be changing again
- BPG has increased dramatically with the Lakers and Knicks titles. No champion has yet to crack the top 10 in BPG, and the 04-08 Timberwolves own the top 5 slots all to themselves. But if you take out the Kenny George teams (04-08 TWolves and 09 Cougars) the next 13 best shot blocking teams have all been from 3011 or later. So blocks are definitely on the rise but we've only had a couple true gamechangers that skew some of these team rankings
- If you're looking for a stat with the most predictive value for championship teams, the best predictors appear to be Pts/TSA and Reb%. Nothing earthshattering about that, but 5 of the top 6 and 8 of the top 15 Reb% teams have won the title (sorry to the '03 Cougars, who rank #1 all-time but have no ring to show for it). For Pts/TSA, we see 4 of the top 6 and 6 of the top 15 (my '14 Lakers have the unfortunate distinction of #1 Pts/TSA of all time, and no ring either).
- The Knicks are the only outside-oriented team to win a title, and their worst 3Pr is nearly double the next closest championship team (the '12 Grizzlies). Despite that, the '10 team only ranks #15 overall in 3pr.
Some takeaways from looking at the defensive statistics:
- For the same reasons offensive output has been steadily better throughout, we see that all of the early teams rate way better in all of the defensive counting stats categories. I am willing to bet that today's teams will not have much problem with these early defenses, as they're a product of the pace and talent level of the league in early 6.0 compared to the shoot-out fest we have now (PEW PEW PEW)
- A defensive stat with some interesting implications is oPts/TSA. As we've seen, it's one of the most correlated stats to championship-caliber teams, and we see a familiar pattern through 3009. Pts/TSA slowly increasing. However, with the Knicks/Lakers teams, we see some pretty big drops back to levels not seen with a champion since 3004. These are also the teams with the highest BPG, so I don't think it's a coincidence. Breaking news, shot blocking really improves team defense.
- oFTr increased over the first four years but has leveled off in the .330 range. However, we can see that the oFT% has consistently increased from around .690% (nice) to .788% last season. Another sign of the increased skill level since creation, as FT% is purely driven by jump shot rating. So teams have a lot higher jump shot ratings on the whole than they did in early 6.0.
- We've seen some of the better FG% against the past few seasons. That's the big reason why those Pts/TSA have fallen despite FTAs, FT%, and 3PA have all increased.
Predictions
Assuming the SRS ratings determine seeding and we have the playoff bracket from above, I wanted to add some thoughts on these potential matchups.
- 13 Lakers vs. 07 Suns
[li]03 Sixers vs. 11 Bobcats[/li]
The 03 Sixers were stacked with depth and scoring at every position. The 11 Bobcats didn't feel like as much of a fluke at the time, but rate pretty low compared to other champions in most categories, especially on defense. The Bobcats's biggest strength is rebounding %, but the 03 Sixers have the 2nd best rebound rate of all time. Would that rebounding hold up against a more recent team, or was it a sign that most teams played much worse rebounders in 03 than in 11? The Bobcats would be fretting about the matchups on the wings, where Old Man Estes and Jared Dudley would have to keep up with prime Dale Ellis and a still elite Antonella Riva. On the plus side, Estes, Dudley and Tayshaun Prince would feast on the boards. The Sixers would have some concerns around slowing down the Bobcats inside, and would have to hope Walter Magnifico doesn't get into foul trouble or they lose all shotblocking presence they have.
Prediction: 03 Sixers in 6
[li]14 Knicks vs. 06 Chaps[/li]
The ghost of CP3 tells Kyrie Irving to beware the Point Greek. In all seriousness, the 14 Knicks are probably my favorite to win the whole thing, thanks not just to the incendiary Kyrie Irving but also what I think is top to bottom one of the deepest teams we've seen in league history. This team is a matchup nightmare, with insane outside scorers and a couple dominant two-way bigs. There is rebounding up and down the roster and every big blocks shots. Meanwhile, the 06 Chaps were the sequel that wasn't quite as good as the original. Granger is a scoring dynamo and we've seen Papaloukas abuse one multi-time MVP throughout the playoffs, so I think they've got a puncher's chance here. But unfortunately this is a huge mismatch on the glass, and I'm not sure the Chaps have the ability to score with the Knicks or win ugly.
Prediction: 14 Knicks in 4
[li]02 Sixers vs. 08 Amigos[/li]
A spicy matchup here between Bankz's first title team and BK's second. The '02 Sixers were not quite the same juggernaut as 03 (despite winning one more game), as younger players like Shawn Kemp Jr. hadn't yet reached their final form. But this is still a formidable team and one of the few early-season champions that I think has a legitimate chance to go deep in this tourney. It also looks like several Sixers players were midseason acquisitions so the team stats might not fully reflect the quality of this team in the playoffs. The 08 Amigos brashly switched from the weak and mewling Eastern Conference to the rugged and tough Western Conference, and were rewarded with a grueling path that sharpened them and made them great. Like the 06 Chaps, this is a less formidable version of the previous title-winning core, who excelled in all of the same areas but did everything a little worse. The Netsmigos core had one true star in Doug Wrenn, but made up for the lack of star power with quality depth and a well-balanced roster. Unlike most of these other matchups, we got a decent taste of what this might look like in 3007, when the Sixers and Nets squared off in the Eastern Conference semis. The Nets team was similar to this roster but the Sixers squad had Martell Webster and Marc Gasol. The series still went 7 games.
Prediction: 08 Amigos in 7
[li]10 Knicks vs. 12 Grizzlies[/li]
A more contemporary matchup, we see the Kyrie-Embiid combo's first title team come up against the Grizzlies 2nd title-winning team. Interestingly, the Grizzlies were the Knicks opponent in the 3010 finals, with most of the core already present that would go on to win two seasons later. The matchup went 4-2 in the Knicks favor, giving Kyrie and Embiid their first ring. The 3010 Knicks are more of a traditional outside-oriented team, driven of course by Kyrie and Embiid. Caron Butler was in his rookie season but had a lot of growth left to do, so the Knicks relied heavily on Chenky Baby and Dave Jamerson to provide the scoring punch. Chenky fell off not too long after this, but for that 3010 season was as good a two-way guard that we've seen in 6.0. The 3012 Grizzlies were somewhat of a surprise coming out of the West, as the Lakers dominated the fracs, but they steamrolled through the playoffs, dropping only 1 game in each playoff series. The wing tandem of Tobias Harris and Michael Beasley was top notch, and Terry Porter had a breakthrough sophomore campaign. The strength of the Grizz relative to other champion teams was in their rebounding, which is fortunate because that's one of the biggest weak spots for the Knicks. I think this version of the Grizzlies fares better than the 3010 one and topples the Knicks in another big upset.
Prediction: 12 Grizzlies in 6
[li]15 Lakers vs. 01 Grizzlies[/li]
The most recent champion draws the 2nd earliest title winning team in what is unfortunately going to be a bloodbath. Maybe I will be proven wrong, but I think these early title teams not named the Sixers are at a HUGE disadvantage. The talent and depth just isn't comparable. Joshua Smith and Jarvis Lang were efficient scorers but didn't bring much else to the table, while the Lakers have bigs like Mikan and JBC who are giving you defense, rebounding, and ball security on top of scoring at close to the same level. And I don't see any way guys like Jason Capel and Lenny Cooke are going to slow down primo wing scorers like Dominique Wilkins and Dajuan Wagner. That's not to say the Grizzlies weren't a well built team, but it's almost unfair to have to match up against a team whose backups are better than most of the Grizzlies starters.
Prediction: 15 Lakers in 4
[li]00 Mavs vs. 09 Hawks[/li]
Like the previous series, this is a mismatch on paper, although I think the Mavs stars would fair better than the Grizzlies. Moala is forever a legend whose single-season WS in 3000 will never be topped. He's the only multi-MVP not named Paul or Irving and, along with his opponent Antonio Gates, the only non-PG to win the award. The Mavs also have Papaloukas at his offensive height. Big Bob Kurland put up some great rebounding numbers despite his B- display grade, and was one of our first great two-way players. But lets be real, the Hawks should be plenty capable of shutting this team down. Gates was still putting up an insane 25-10-6 stat line on great efficiency, and DC and Hibbert are more than capable of neutralizing the strength of the Mavs front court. Theo should lay waste to Diante Garrett/Brian Roberts, but the Mavs have to try to slow down Gates, Rodney McCray and TJ Warren with Ramunas Siskauskas (who?), Ryan Appleby (who?!?), and Scotty Thurman (WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?!??!). Another big time mismatch and an easy victory for the Hawks.
Prediction: 09 Hawks in 5
[li]04 Chaps vs. 05 Nets[/li]
Finally, the marquee matchup of the first round. Brother against brother, Chap against Net. It's a slobberknocker of a hootenanny of a shindig between the BK-led 05 Nets and the Chap-led 04 Chaps. Both of these cores are very similar to the ones mentioned earlier. The Nets had a dominant romp through the 05 postseason, losing only 4 games en route to the title. Ervin Johnson and Doug Wrenn both came on board this year, while old head Dimitris Diamantidis got paid $22.75 M to put up a statline of 8.8/5.8/2.1. All jokes aside, this Nets team was a killer on the glass and had contributors up and down the roster. The 04 Chaps were led by the familiar names of Papaloukas, Meeks, and Breshers. Danny Granger was Danny Greener, showing promise in his rookie season but not matching the scoring output you might expect. The acquisitions of Mike O'Koren and James Blackmon Jr. helped graduate the Chaps from darkhorse to favorite in the West, and Theo got his first taste of embarrassing Chris Paul in the Western Conference finals. With these teams basically contemporaries, I have more confidence the comparison between their team stats is meaningful. What we see is that the Nets have a big advantage on the boards, while the Chaps take better care of the basketball. The Nets appear to have a much stronger defense, even more significant since they were the later team. But I like the Chaps to pull the upset thanks to Theo once more.
Prediction: 04 Chaps in 7[/ul]
I don't want to bore you with breakouts for the hypothetical following rounds, so I'll just finish out the tournament bracket here with my predictions:
2nd Round
13 Lakers vs. 04 Chaps - 13 Lakers in 6
03 Sixers vs. 09 Hawks - 09 Hawks in 7
14 Knicks vs. 15 Lakers - 14 Knicks in 6
08 Amigos vs. 12 Grizzlies - 12 Grizzlies in 6
Semi-Finals
13 Lakers vs 12 Grizzlies - 13 Lakers in 5
09 Hawks vs 14 Knicks - 14 Knicks in 6
Finals
13 Lakers vs 14 Knicks - 14 Knicks in 7[/font]
