|
|
Post by Dirt on Jan 26, 2021 11:26:40 GMT -5
Not sure voting me makes sense at this point. I'm an obvious ally to the town. I havent tried to confuse anyone.
|
|
jhb
New Member
Posts: 1,349
Likes: 396
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by jhb on Jan 26, 2021 11:26:58 GMT -5
I'm going to vote for Bankz
I think he's the likely framing target if he isn't mafia night 1 based on his day 1 actions, but I've also thought he was mafia since early in the game so I'm going to hope he wasn't framed because he is the mafia.
|
|
jhb
New Member
Posts: 1,349
Likes: 396
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by jhb on Jan 26, 2021 11:28:02 GMT -5
What percentage chance do you guys think Bankz was framed on day 1? I think Tim probably underestimated the framing possibility, but I'm kind of amazed that Skrouse wants to remove Bankz from consideration entirely. That's very suspicious. If it was me in the mafia, that's probably who I would've chosen since he was a heavy day 1 flipper and broke the OT tie. I think it's more likely he was just mafia based on the totality of his play. |
|
|
|
Post by Ankly on Jan 26, 2021 11:30:04 GMT -5
What percentage chance do you guys think Bankz was framed on day 1? I think Tim probably underestimated the framing possibility, but I'm kind of amazed that Skrouse wants to remove Bankz from consideration entirely. That's very suspicious. If it was me in the mafia, that's probably who I would've chosen since he was a heavy day 1 flipper and broke the OT tie. I think it's more likely he was just mafia based on the totality of his play. It's possible, but even if it's a 50% chance of being framed (which is a very high percentage imo) that leaves a 50% chance he wasn't framed and is actually mafia. I don't think we have a 40%+ hit rate on a non-Bankz execution. |
|
Deleted
Posts: 0
Likes:
Joined: January 1970
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2021 11:31:08 GMT -5
I don't think we have a 40%+ hit rate on a non-Bankz execution.
ank ignoring the 50% mafia hit rate we would have if we voted off ank or jhb
|
|
jhb
New Member
Posts: 1,349
Likes: 396
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by jhb on Jan 26, 2021 11:32:24 GMT -5
This game is hilariously mafia-slanted with this many mafia power roles including a janitor with a uncertain town scenario
Not to mention the cherry on top of our bodyguard going MIA
Druce certainly paid back all that angst and consternation he had about Bankz being a shitty townsmember last game twofold
|
|
Deleted
Posts: 0
Likes:
Joined: January 1970
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2021 11:34:44 GMT -5
This game is hilariously mafia-slanted with this many mafia power roles including a janitor with a uncertain town scenario Not to mention the cherry on top of our bodyguard going MIA Druce certainly paid back all that angst and consternation he had about Bankz being a shitty townsmember last game twofold i told 20s this in shout as he was creating the game. 2 possible mafia power roles with only 3 possible town power roles AND the town protective roles being nerfed (people dont know if they are protected)
it's been over since before it started and is frankly why i only halfway care at this point
|
|
|
|
Post by TinyTimPig on Jan 26, 2021 11:35:07 GMT -5
The framer possibility was always in play, but after Bankz's actions day one I thought the most value was going to be attained by investigating him. His alignment was going to be helpful moving forward when trying to understand the tie and his OT vote flip.
Bankz
|
|
gbgalla24
New Member
Posts: 283
Likes: 37
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by gbgalla24 on Jan 26, 2021 11:36:33 GMT -5
Bankz I guess
|
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:36:48 GMT -5
Here's the final Day 1 vote count below with known alignments highlighted:
Final Day 1 Vote Count:
(4) trofie - skrouse, timpig, soup, bankz
(3) bankz - dachap, jhb, BK
(2) druce - gbg, ank
(2) No execution - dirt, delap
(1) BK - trofie
Did not vote: druce
Final Vote Count:
(4) no execution - ank, timpig, soup, dirt
(2) druce - bankz, skrouse
(2) bankz - dachap, jhb
(1) ank - BK
(1) jhb - gbg
Did not vote: druce
Taking Ank's post and moving it a step forward....
Added day 2 final vote. Highlighted pairings that matched both days. I also highlighted the fact Dirt voted No Execution both days because it stood out.
I'm going to toss my cards out because at this point I feel we got no other choice as town. I'm a simple vanilla civ.
My thoughts:
The town was so very off day 1. Not a single mafia member was in danger of being voted off. The fact we then wasted an entire day 2 on druce also played perfectly into the hands of the mafia. Its why we saw a lack of action and pressing on votes.
BK- I think his early vote on me x 2 was more personal vs game action. Since he's circled two posters and gone hard after them. My only issue is if your pressing JHB about detailed reasoning behind voting for me twice why are you not pressing Chap since he and JHB have mirror votes.
Chap- Early returns from Chap lead me to believe he generally has fun as a power role. He seems to be giving up very little detail and not participating in the game. He did have a reason for some of his lack of action but since he's still been mia and his only explanation is I'm sus and i voted off Trofie. But clearly I was going to vote a town person regardless. Think to yourself would the Mafia allow themselves day one to put a member in the spotlight by being the deciding vote to kill a town member off and turn around and lead the charge to kill a power role town the next day? Seems extreme and very ballsy and imho very unlikely.
JHB- He's generally a very strong mafia player. Rarely does he hold onto a target with little info or reasoning behind it for multiple days. He's doing that now. Just not in his normal town realm of action.
Tim- No feel on Tim. He could be honest as his role. I would like to know why he voted for me day 1 as it seemed like an obvious move for the mafia to frame me given what I laid out above.
Ank- He's living in the shadows again. Just like the last game when he was mafia. Maybe its his style idk. Not a good read on him.
Dirt- Seems to be the most pro town moves of anyone. Going the safe route day 1 and day 2.
GBG- Again he seems to be pro town. He seems to actually want to think things out logically and also not rush to make a move because he's told to. I point to Mafia wanting to force the timer as we waste the day away on a dummy mission
Skrouse - Not a great feel. I lean on him being town.
If I had to rank who I think is Mafia
1) JHB
2) Chap
3) Ank
4) BK
5) GBG
6) Skrouse
7) Dirt
8) Tim
|
|
|
|
Post by skrouse on Jan 26, 2021 11:37:11 GMT -5
What percentage chance do you guys think Bankz was framed on day 1?I think Tim probably underestimated the framing possibility, but I'm kind of amazed that Skrouse wants to remove Bankz from consideration entirely. That's very suspicious. Pretty good change IMO
And Tim just cleared me, so for me to be sus, he'd have to be lying. Not sure why he'd do that, like literally what would be the reason?
|
|
|
|
Post by skrouse on Jan 26, 2021 11:38:29 GMT -5
Chance*
|
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:38:35 GMT -5
Tim why did you investigate me day 1? Four vote flips, an OT kill, and you're Bankz. Is that enough? What i'm trying to get at is did the thought of me being framed not enter the mind? I seem to be an excellent candidate for that given how the three games so far in 3.0 have played out. Also with me being the deciding vote. |
|
|
|
Post by Ankly on Jan 26, 2021 11:43:52 GMT -5
What percentage chance do you guys think Bankz was framed on day 1?I think Tim probably underestimated the framing possibility, but I'm kind of amazed that Skrouse wants to remove Bankz from consideration entirely. That's very suspicious. Pretty good change IMO
And Tim just cleared me, so for me to be sus, he'd have to be lying. Not sure why he'd do that, like literally what would be the reason?
I missed Tim clearing you. So I don't think you're sus in the mafia sense. I do think your analysis was off though. Unless you're ready to say that Bankz was like 70% likely or more to have been framed, I feel like he's the choice here. |
|
|
|
Post by Ankly on Jan 26, 2021 11:44:13 GMT -5
Bankz is my vote.
|
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:44:50 GMT -5
The framer possibility was always in play, but after Bankz's actions day one I thought the most value was going to be attained by investigating him. His alignment was going to be helpful moving forward when trying to understand the tie and his OT vote flip. BankzSure it's in play. I'm not saying you don't investigate me at some point. Even night 2. Doing it night one given all the changes of votes and me being the deciding factor was a very poor choice. |
|
|
|
Post by skrouse on Jan 26, 2021 11:45:22 GMT -5
Pretty good change IMO
And Tim just cleared me, so for me to be sus, he'd have to be lying. Not sure why he'd do that, like literally what would be the reason?
I missed Tim clearing you. So I don't think you're sus in the mafia sense. I do think your analysis was off though. Unless you're ready to say that Bankz was like 70% likely or more to have been framed, I feel like he's the choice here. Who else took an action that would lead them to be a top investigative target for Tim? |
|
|
|
Post by TinyTimPig on Jan 26, 2021 11:46:55 GMT -5
Sure it's in play. I'm not saying you don't investigate me at some point. Even night 2. Doing it night one given all the changes of votes and me being the deciding factor was a very poor choice. Who else took an action that would lead them to be a top investigative target for Tim? Skrouse is mostly correct here. It came down to you and BK due to the pissing match the two of you were having. The numerous vote changes and OT kill are indicators for me and I wasn't going to overthink it like the town did last game. |
|
jhb
New Member
Posts: 1,349
Likes: 396
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by jhb on Jan 26, 2021 11:49:21 GMT -5
I think we have a majority on Bankz
|
|
|
|
Post by TinyTimPig on Jan 26, 2021 11:51:49 GMT -5
Doing it night one given all the changes of votes and me being the deciding factor was a very poor choice. And you might think it was a really poor choice, but frankly I didn't see the mafia framing you. I was expecting them to go after Ank most likely or maybe Delap. |
|
jhb
New Member
Posts: 1,349
Likes: 396
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by jhb on Jan 26, 2021 11:52:24 GMT -5
Vote Count:
(3) ank - bk, skrouse, dirt
(5) bankz - dachap, jhb, timpig, gbg, ank
(1) jhb - bankz
Yet to vote:
I think this is right unless I missed another skrouse vote change
|
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:52:24 GMT -5
Sure it's in play. I'm not saying you don't investigate me at some point. Even night 2. Doing it night one given all the changes of votes and me being the deciding factor was a very poor choice. Who else took an action that would lead them to be a top investigative target for Tim? Skrouse is mostly correct here. It came down to you and BK due to the pissing match the two of you were having. The numerous vote changes and OT kill are indicators for me and I wasn't going to overthink it like the town did last game. You nailed day 1 last game to utterly fuck up day 1 this game... idk man seems like either Delap was our investigator and you may be Mafia or you don't want to actually admit it was a bad move and are fine with doubling down. I'm a vanilla civ. This miss puts the nail in the coffin. 6-3 to 4-3 is ball game.... And its gonna happen with me being voted off. Good luck town. If Tim is not faking the role I hope he hits on mafia tonight to give you some shot if he's alive it's proof he played you guys |
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:53:24 GMT -5
Doing it night one given all the changes of votes and me being the deciding factor was a very poor choice. And you might think it was a really poor choice, but frankly I didn't see the mafia framing you. I was expecting them to go after Ank most likely or maybe Delap. Wait you didn't think the guy who was the deciding vote on a town kill would be framed? come the fuck on... its like 80% chance of happening. |
|
|
|
Post by Ankly on Jan 26, 2021 11:54:48 GMT -5
I missed Tim clearing you. So I don't think you're sus in the mafia sense. I do think your analysis was off though. Unless you're ready to say that Bankz was like 70% likely or more to have been framed, I feel like he's the choice here. Who else took an action that would lead them to be a top investigative target for Tim? Investigations aren't necessarily done because of actions. There are different ways to pick out an investigation target. And for that same reason, there would be different ways to use the framing power. I don't think Bankz was the best choice for an investigation night 1 given what you are saying. But even still, I think executing Bankz give us the best odds here. |
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:54:52 GMT -5
Ank
|
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:56:23 GMT -5
Who else took an action that would lead them to be a top investigative target for Tim? Investigations aren't necessarily done because of actions. There are different ways to pick out an investigation target. And for that same reason, there would be different ways to use the framing power. I don't think Bankz was the best choice for an investigation night 1 given what you are saying. But even still, I think executing Bankz give us the best odds here. Look at this logic... Tim fucked up but I'm going to pile on Tim's double down of his bad play.... geez |
|
bankz
New Member
GM of the Year: 3001
Posts: 2,347
Likes: 490
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by bankz on Jan 26, 2021 11:57:55 GMT -5
Hopefully the town reads my post above breaking down my thoughts...
1) JHB
2) Ank
Then its between if Chap is just an idiot or Tim being mafia faking the role of cop
good luck ya'll
|
|
|
|
Post by Ankly on Jan 26, 2021 11:58:10 GMT -5
Investigations aren't necessarily done because of actions. There are different ways to pick out an investigation target. And for that same reason, there would be different ways to use the framing power. I don't think Bankz was the best choice for an investigation night 1 given what you are saying. But even still, I think executing Bankz give us the best odds here. Look at this logic... Tim fucked up but I'm going to pile on Tim's double down of his bad play.... geez I'm not going to apologize for understanding how probabilities work. |
|
jhb
New Member
Posts: 1,349
Likes: 396
Joined: January 2021
|
Post by jhb on Jan 26, 2021 11:59:37 GMT -5
Well this might get interesting at the end of the day here
|
|
|
|
Post by skrouse on Jan 26, 2021 12:01:26 GMT -5
Who else took an action that would lead them to be a top investigative target for Tim? Investigations aren't necessarily done because of actions. There are different ways to pick out an investigation target. And for that same reason, there would be different ways to use the framing power. I don't think Bankz was the best choice for an investigation night 1 given what you are saying. But even still, I think executing Bankz give us the best odds here. Without knowledge of the ID of said investigator the framing power should be used on the most likely Non-Maf player to be investigated given the events of day 1.
If the maf wants to act based on who they think is the PI and who they may investigate, that's a bold strategy with little chance of success. If I was the PI, I would NOT have investigated who I thought was most likely to be framed, I would go almost completely RNG so that the chances of investigating the framed player were at their lowest.
|
|
