Analyzing the 3002 Contenders (334 views)

[20s]

The league is pretty top heavy this year and I think most agree there are at least a handful of teams with a real shot to win the 3002 TMBSL Championship.  So I decided to take a look inside the numbers and determine who I thought really truly has a shot.  I also wanted to look at the strengths and weaknesses of each team relative to the other contenders, not just to the middling and rebuilding teams that make up the rest of TMBSL.

So first up, I needed to determine who has a chance to win a title?  I wanted to do this objectively, not just using my opinion.  So I decided to plot every 3002 team based on their O Rtg (points per 100 possessions) and D Rtg (points per 100 posessions) on a chart.  I also included the 3000 Dallas Mavericks and 3001 Vancouver Grizzlies as the previous title winning teams.  Here is that chart:

So I made lines of demarcation at the "worst" O Rtg and "worst" D Rtg of our two champions so far.  This number happened to be the 3001 Grizzlies in both instances.  Side note: the 3000 Mavs were fucking amazing.  They are the trophy in the top right of the chart.  Dominant on both ends of the floor. I then decided I would take a deeper look at any team whose offense was at least as good as the championship Grizzlies as well as any team whose defense was at least as good as the 3001 Grizzlies.

This resulted in a list of 11 teams:

• Philadelphia 76ers
• Atlanta Hawks
• New Jersey Nets
• New York Knicks
• Indiana Pacers
• Charlotte Bobcats
• Dallas Mavericks
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Texas Chaparrals
• Vancouver Grizzlies
• Carolina Cougars

I don't think this list is surprising to anyone outside of the Bobcats.  Most of the other teams are who people would say are the top teams in the league.  There was one glaring omission: the Milwaukee Bucks.  While neither their O Rtg or D Rtg was as good as the Grizz title team, both are very close, and they are way more balanced than some of the teams that made the list, so I made the executive decision to include the Bucks in my analysis as well.

Looking at the first chart, we can see the 76ers and Knicks offenses are clearly a level above everyone else.  The Knicks defense is pretty weak, though.  The Hawks and Blazers are the cream of the crop defensively, the only teams this year with a stronger defense than last season's champs.

Next up, I plotted Pts/Tsa and Opp. Pts/Tsa just to get another look.

This chart really makes the Hawks, 76ers, and Blazers stand out as perhaps the top contenders.  It is important to remember that Pts/Tsa is only considering efficiency when you are getting a shot up and doesn't factor in things like Turnovers and Rebounding which can have a big impact on how often you score compared to your opponent.  We will see that some of those factors may allow other teams to tighten the race.

I thought it was important to compare this group of 12 'potential title winners' against each other, instead of only looking at them in comparison to the full league.  When it comes to the playoffs, it doesn't really matter how the Chaps compare to the Suns or how the Pacers look against the Raptors.  I ranked all 12 teams in stat categories that I considered important.  Here are those rankings in pretty chart form and a classic table.

There is a ton of data to take in here, and I will go through it a little more team by team below.  But high level, first impressions when looking at the logo chart:

• The 76ers, Hawks, and Blazers are truly elite at a lot of shit.  You see their logos all over the place in those 1 and 2 spots.
• The Blazers are also unfortunately near the bottom in most of the categories they aren't elite in.
• The Bobcats don't belong in this group (as most of us would have already agreed).
• I really like looking at things this way because it really starts to show who is the best among the best.  It really helped crystalize for me that some teams are definitely worse than others in this group and they probably won't win a title without catching some RNG fortune.

Next, I took a deep look into each team on the list to determine where they are strong, where they are weak, and make my ultimate determination on if the team is a Contender or Pretender for the 3002 title.  This was a very tough call in some cases, and ultimately, it is just my opinion.  Also, this is as of Sim 7, trades and injuries could definitely change the chances that teams' have.  Here are the individual teams in reverse order of my rankings.

[IanBoyd]

70k

[Trofie]

Tons of info great article. 70k.

Id like to see the records of teams v the 12

[20s]

Mar 11, 2021 12:47:12 GMT -5 Trofie said:

Tons of info great article. 70k.

Id like to see the records of teams v the 12

This is a great suggestion. I’m going to add that. 

[TinyTimPig]

70k. Great article.

I took a quick glance at depth charts for a few of the contenders and noticed that the 76ers, Knicks, Chaparrals, and Blazers all had the Very Fast assistant coach, while the Hawks went with the Always Trap assistant coach. I wonder how much that's buffing up their defensive ratings.

I also noticed that you listed one of the Knicks' weaknesses as FT Rating. They're the only contender running Outside, which probably has a pretty significant impact on FT Rating.

[Majic]

85k

great work and hope to see this in the future.

I think my PG situation is better than it looks as my TO problem is more tied to my other players. I expected that part of my team to be an issue when I brought in Peppers and Buford to pair with Sampson. Given the efficiency and defense of my team it was something I am willing to live with.

[Trofie]

Mar 11, 2021 12:49:45 GMT -5 20s said:

Mar 11, 2021 12:47:12 GMT -5 Trofie said:

Tons of info great article. 70k.

Id like to see the records of teams v the 12

This is a great suggestion. I’m going to add that. 

Like Chap is 5-6 vs the West of teams on the top 12. 2 of them being the old grizzlies. And he's 8-1 vs the east teams. Only loss the 76ers

[delap]

69k

[Deleted]

69.69k

[Sapular]

85K Great work! Solid stuff here

[Druce]

70k, this is really cool

[Dirt]

Article is bonkers..makes my head kind of hurt.
75k

[jhb]

75k

[Yawn of the Dead]

75k

awesome stuff

[bankz]

Amazing work 20s.

70K

[20s]

BONUS CONTENT: Head to Head Records vs other 'Contenders' as Trofie requested

[Soup]

make mine 80k now

[skrouse]

75K, 20s clearly the best at articles 

[Trofie]

80k after the update

[bankz]

80k with the update

[20s]

guys I already cashed it in, thanks anyway

[Druce]

$1 million after update

[Herby New Year!]

1k. Say nicer things about the Pacers, dick. Lie if you have to.

[eric]

great article and formatting, love that first graph especially

[20s]

End of Season Update:


It's interesting to look at this chart and compare it to the one from earlier in the season.  The Sixers' defense clearly improved from Sim 8 forward.  The Bobcats offense fell off enough that they would no longer be included as a team that could win the title.  The Blazers fell off completely and would no longer be included, either.  The Bucks moved from just off in both categories to the best defensive team in the league and solidly a contender.

[bankz]

Magnifico had massive impact on my defense. I was as low as 15th at one point. Think I was 10th at time of deal and finished 4th.

Thanks for the final update 20s.

Hopefully this is a yearly installment

[20s]

I’m gonna be updating some of the other stuff too it just won’t be done until the morning.

[20s]

End of Season Update:

• The 76ers went from 9th to 3rd in blocks per game.
• 7 of the 10 'contenders' remaining are #1 in the league in a category.
• The Nets are top 2 in 6 categories.
• The Grizzlies are last in turnovers per game, but first in forcing opponents turnovers per game.  Sloppy games in Vancouver.
• The 76ers are not worse than 5th in any category. 

[20s]

End of Season Update:

[20s]

BONUS CONTENT: