Post by 20s on Feb 23, 2021 18:10:32 GMT -5
We are through 100 days of the 3001 TMSBL season and with only 2 sims remaining, let's check in once again on those season win total over/unders set by the Casino
With only 20 days remaining in the season, our two projection models now only differ on one prediction: the Golden State Warriors. Strict win percentage likes them to win 29 or 30 games which would put them over their number of 28.5, while the xWins projection has them at 28. It looks like anyone with Golden State in their predictions will be watching down to the wire.
However, we can announce that 13 of the 29 teams have already clinched going over or under their total. Of the 13, seven teams have already won more than their total meaning that they have gone OVER, while six do not have enough games remaining to get above their win total set by the casino. Here are those teams:
Looking at the wagers placed in the casino, we are now back to $175,000 in winning bets and $36,000 in losing bets. After the Chaparrals recent trades and subsequent play on the court, they are now projected to go under their total once again. Those 76ers, SuperSonics, and Pacers over bets have already cashed while the Magic and Kings over bets are already losers. However, as we noted in an earlier update, those bets were canceled by the bettors due to a loophole which allowed them to back out after seeing the first 3 sims.
With only 20 days remaining in the season, our two projection models now only differ on one prediction: the Golden State Warriors. Strict win percentage likes them to win 29 or 30 games which would put them over their number of 28.5, while the xWins projection has them at 28. It looks like anyone with Golden State in their predictions will be watching down to the wire.
However, we can announce that 13 of the 29 teams have already clinched going over or under their total. Of the 13, seven teams have already won more than their total meaning that they have gone OVER, while six do not have enough games remaining to get above their win total set by the casino. Here are those teams:
- Carolina Cougars - OVER
- Chicago Stags - OVER
- Seattle SuperSonics - OVER
- Los Angeles Clippers - UNDER
- Indiana Pacers - OVER
- Miami Heat - UNDER
- Milwaukee Bucks - OVER
- New York Knicks - UNDER
- Orlando Magic - UNDER
- Philadelphia 76ers - OVER
- Phoenix Suns - UNDER
- Portland Trailblazers - OVER
- Sacramento Kings - UNDER
Currently, 10 teams in the league are projected to go over their season total while 19 are projected to go under. It is hard to know exactly what that means when it comes to how Vegas did setting the numbers, but it will be something to monitor going forward. The 76ers were the most underrated team in the preseason as they are projected to win nearly 30 more than the 38.5 their line was set at. From a projected losing record to the most wins in TMBSL. The Knicks were the most overrated team in preseason with their line being set by the casino at 51.5. They are currently projected to win 32 games, missing by nearly 20 wins.
The next most overrated team in preseason was the Miami Heat. This can partially be explained by them trading star player Antonio Gates, but they were struggling before making that move as well. The second most underrated team was the Indiana Pacers, whose line was set at only 36.5 after struggling in preseason without Rookie of the Year candidate Clyde Drexler. They are now on pace to win 53 games and have already sped past the 36.5 number set by the casino.
The next most overrated team in preseason was the Miami Heat. This can partially be explained by them trading star player Antonio Gates, but they were struggling before making that move as well. The second most underrated team was the Indiana Pacers, whose line was set at only 36.5 after struggling in preseason without Rookie of the Year candidate Clyde Drexler. They are now on pace to win 53 games and have already sped past the 36.5 number set by the casino.
Looking at the wagers placed in the casino, we are now back to $175,000 in winning bets and $36,000 in losing bets. After the Chaparrals recent trades and subsequent play on the court, they are now projected to go under their total once again. Those 76ers, SuperSonics, and Pacers over bets have already cashed while the Magic and Kings over bets are already losers. However, as we noted in an earlier update, those bets were canceled by the bettors due to a loophole which allowed them to back out after seeing the first 3 sims.