Season Win Totals as of Sim 5
Feb 19, 2021 10:55:49 GMT -5
skrouse, Yawn of the Dead, and 1 more like this
Post by 20s on Feb 19, 2021 10:55:49 GMT -5
We've now seen 50 days worth of basketball, nearly half the season. Let's check in on those season over/unders set by the TMBSL Casino.
As we are getting a larger sample size, the WinPct and xWins projections are coming more in line with one another. Teams win percentages are leveling off to closer to what we should expect for a full season and the xWins is relying more heavily on what has happened in the 3001 season vs what preseason expectations were. There are now only 4 teams where WinPct and xWins disagree on the over or under.
Those teams:
The Hawks are a clear case where xWins factoring in strength of schedule is making an impact. If they keep at their current pace, they will fall slightly under their total, but they have played a ridiculously challenging schedule early on in the season. This is a situation where I definitely side with xWins and see the Hawks going over their total.
The Mavericks are a case where both projections just have them very close to the line that was set with each one on separate sides. WinPct has them at 65.6 wins while xWins says 68, and the total was set at 66.5 This appears to just be a very well set line that could go either way. One factor to consider is that the team has been missing Bob Kurland for a while and is still on pace to be right around the total. If they see their play improve once he is back in the fold, that could be enough to boost them to the over.
The Warriors are the team where the two projections are the furthest away from each other. xWins does really not like the Warriors even though their current win percentage says they would finish around 35 wins on the season. One factor here is that ward is looking to sell so the team in the second half of the season may not be as talented as the one Golden State is currently trotting out there.
The Lakers are similar to the Mavericks in that the two models are pretty close with each just falling on one side or the other of the total. Who knows what happens here, they are looking to move their best player in Mike Gansey.
Looking at the wagers made by bettors in the casino, we do see a change for the first time this season. Bettors are now projected to rake in 159,000 in profit with the Chaparrals bet switching from a projected loss to a projected win between updates. The Kings over was actually a canceled bet due to a loophole which allowed the bettor to get out of their losing proposition. The same loophole was taken advantage of in the case of the Magic over as well. So it really looks like the casino will be taking their lumps if the current results hold as bettors seem to have found the weakest lines that were set and taken advantage of them by hammering those with max bets.
As we are getting a larger sample size, the WinPct and xWins projections are coming more in line with one another. Teams win percentages are leveling off to closer to what we should expect for a full season and the xWins is relying more heavily on what has happened in the 3001 season vs what preseason expectations were. There are now only 4 teams where WinPct and xWins disagree on the over or under.
Those teams:
- Hawks - WinPct UNDER and xWins OVER
- Mavericks - WinPct UNDER and xWins OVER
- Warriors - WinPct OVER and xWins UNDER
- Lakers - WinPct OVER and xWins UNDER
The Hawks are a clear case where xWins factoring in strength of schedule is making an impact. If they keep at their current pace, they will fall slightly under their total, but they have played a ridiculously challenging schedule early on in the season. This is a situation where I definitely side with xWins and see the Hawks going over their total.
The Mavericks are a case where both projections just have them very close to the line that was set with each one on separate sides. WinPct has them at 65.6 wins while xWins says 68, and the total was set at 66.5 This appears to just be a very well set line that could go either way. One factor to consider is that the team has been missing Bob Kurland for a while and is still on pace to be right around the total. If they see their play improve once he is back in the fold, that could be enough to boost them to the over.
The Warriors are the team where the two projections are the furthest away from each other. xWins does really not like the Warriors even though their current win percentage says they would finish around 35 wins on the season. One factor here is that ward is looking to sell so the team in the second half of the season may not be as talented as the one Golden State is currently trotting out there.
The Lakers are similar to the Mavericks in that the two models are pretty close with each just falling on one side or the other of the total. Who knows what happens here, they are looking to move their best player in Mike Gansey.
Looking at the wagers made by bettors in the casino, we do see a change for the first time this season. Bettors are now projected to rake in 159,000 in profit with the Chaparrals bet switching from a projected loss to a projected win between updates. The Kings over was actually a canceled bet due to a loophole which allowed the bettor to get out of their losing proposition. The same loophole was taken advantage of in the case of the Magic over as well. So it really looks like the casino will be taking their lumps if the current results hold as bettors seem to have found the weakest lines that were set and taken advantage of them by hammering those with max bets.
