Post by 20s on Feb 17, 2021 0:10:42 GMT -5
Well, we've seen 30 days of basketball and with one quarter of the regular season in the books, let's take a look at how the league's bets on season win totals are looking. Who is over? Who is under? Who is winning big and who is going broke?
Our two models agree on the fate of 22 of the 29 teams at this point in the season.
The 7 that they disagree on:
What is happening here is that WinPct is simply assuming a team continues winning games all season at the same rate it has through the first 30 days. This is obviously flawed because it ignores things like injuries, schedule, etc which are important factors in how many games a team has won to this point. xWins takes into account more factors, but right now, it is still weighing in somewhat heavily preseason performance/past seasons performances. This can cause the xWins formula to stick to its preseason notions even if it seems like a team may not be as good as it was thought before the season. The best example this season is the Orlando Magic. As they have gotten off to a rough start at 11-11, WinPct is assuming they will finish at 41-41. I think most of us think they will improve their play some and finish above .500. xWins is still projecting them at 65-17 which would imply a finish of 54-6 over their last 60 games. That is also quite unlikely. So I think most of us assume they will finish somewhere in between the 41 and 65 marks projected by the two separate systems at this time.
Let's take a look at the bets the league made and check in on how they are doing.
Bettors are still projected to net 139,000 in winnings from their 211,000 in total bets at this point. 175,000 of the 211,000 wagered project to win their bets, while the remaining 36,000 would fall into the casino's hands.
The bets currently projected to lose are the Kings over bet by odin, the Magic over bets by ba and skrouse, the Pipers over bet placed by ba, and the Chaparrals over bet by odin.
Projected to win are the Wolves under bet by numerous users, the Sonics over bet by numerous users, the 76ers over by multiple users, the Pacers over bet by heebs, and the Pipers under by 20s.
A recent development in the gambling world is that due to some unclear terms of the bet when originally placed, bettors are being given the option to either hand over the cash they bet now for safe holding during the remainder of the regular season, or withdraw their bets completely. This decision must be made before Sim 4 so we will have to see what everyone decides. You would think at least the Kings and Magic over bettors would think twice about making those bets and take advantage of the free out they have been given.
Our two models agree on the fate of 22 of the 29 teams at this point in the season.
The 7 that they disagree on:
- Hawks - WinPct says UNDER by 5, xWins says OVER by 7.5
- Mavericks - WinPct says UNDER by 3.1, xWins says OVER by 7.5
- Clippers - WinPct says UNDER by 1.6, xWins says OVER by 9.5
- Bucks - WinPct says OVER by 1.3, xWins says UNDER by 7.5
- Magic - WinPct says UNDER by 17.5, xWins says OVER by 6.5
- SuperSonics - WinPct says OVER by 1.7, xWins says UNDER by 4.5
- Chaparrals - WinPct says UNDER by 2.6, xWins says OVER by 3.5
What is happening here is that WinPct is simply assuming a team continues winning games all season at the same rate it has through the first 30 days. This is obviously flawed because it ignores things like injuries, schedule, etc which are important factors in how many games a team has won to this point. xWins takes into account more factors, but right now, it is still weighing in somewhat heavily preseason performance/past seasons performances. This can cause the xWins formula to stick to its preseason notions even if it seems like a team may not be as good as it was thought before the season. The best example this season is the Orlando Magic. As they have gotten off to a rough start at 11-11, WinPct is assuming they will finish at 41-41. I think most of us think they will improve their play some and finish above .500. xWins is still projecting them at 65-17 which would imply a finish of 54-6 over their last 60 games. That is also quite unlikely. So I think most of us assume they will finish somewhere in between the 41 and 65 marks projected by the two separate systems at this time.
Let's take a look at the bets the league made and check in on how they are doing.
Bettors are still projected to net 139,000 in winnings from their 211,000 in total bets at this point. 175,000 of the 211,000 wagered project to win their bets, while the remaining 36,000 would fall into the casino's hands.
The bets currently projected to lose are the Kings over bet by odin, the Magic over bets by ba and skrouse, the Pipers over bet placed by ba, and the Chaparrals over bet by odin.
Projected to win are the Wolves under bet by numerous users, the Sonics over bet by numerous users, the 76ers over by multiple users, the Pacers over bet by heebs, and the Pipers under by 20s.
A recent development in the gambling world is that due to some unclear terms of the bet when originally placed, bettors are being given the option to either hand over the cash they bet now for safe holding during the remainder of the regular season, or withdraw their bets completely. This decision must be made before Sim 4 so we will have to see what everyone decides. You would think at least the Kings and Magic over bettors would think twice about making those bets and take advantage of the free out they have been given.