Post by eric on Feb 8, 2021 22:45:36 GMT -5
www.basketball-reference.com/ uses margin of victory and strength of schedule to calculate a Simple Rating System that especially in small samples is more indicative of future success. Currently, there is a sharp divide between the top teams and the rest of the NBA:
9 - Bucks
9 - Jazz
8 - Lakers
6 - Clippers
4 or lower - everyone else
Historically, the best player among those on the top two teams in each conference has been a great candidate for MVP, and giving the MVP to someone else has very rapidly turned into a retroactive embarrassment... your '17 Westbrook over Kawhis, your '11 Rose over Gasols, your '08 Bryant over Pauls, your '01 Iverson over O'Neals.
We know the Bucks are going to be a top two team in the East, the second is anyone's guess, and the two from the West will probably be of the Jazz Lakers or Clippers.
We know the best players from those teams are Giannis Antetokounmpo, TBD, Rudy Gobert, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard.
And we know what the top five MVP odds (with ties) were going into the season.
Luka Doncic +400
Giannis Antetokounmpo +450
Kevin Durant +800
Stephen Curry +1000
Joel Embiid +1000
LeBron James +1000
Embiid's team and the team Durant is on are in the barnburner of a slobberknocker for the second best team in the East, so they're certainly both in contention for that TBD slot, so let's start with them.
Joel Embiid is flirting with .300 WS/48, a feat last achieved by Steph Curry, LeBron James, LeBron James But For the 09 Cavs So It Should Probably Count Double, Michael Jordan, Michael Jordan, Michael Jeffrey Jordan, and Nobody Else Since the Merger.
He is doing this with his most productive teammate being Steph Curry's brother. (Not his last shout-out in this post.)
He is doing this with 29 points and 11 rebounds per game shooting 39% from three.
If he gets up to 30 10 40%, he would be the first player to sport those figures since James Naismith nailed up the peach baskets.
1891 - present.
Joel Embiid.
End of list.
.
Kevin Durant's most productive teammate is actually more productive than him, the 2018 MVP James Harden, acquired mid-season in trade.
Combined with his continued age- and injury- related decline from his prime, and he's probably out.
.
Stephen Curry's team is so many parsecs ahead of mere mortals that they are currently supporting him with 28% from three Kelly Oubre and 19% from three Draymond Green.
Okay but the "triple point shot" is filth flarn filth, there's more to winning basketball than that. By Win Shares his fellow starters are
.07 Andrew Wiggins
.05 James Wiseman
.04 Draymond Green
.02 Kelly Oubre
Put all that together and you almost (but not quite) get to two league average players.
Good luck finding that for $75m this year alone!!
.
Luka Doncic.
Luka "Doesn't Have a Middle Name" Doncic.
Luka "ACB MVP" Doncic.
Luka "ACB MVP One Less Time than Nikola Mirotic" Doncic.
The Mavericks are not a top two team in the West.
The Mavericks are not a playoff team in the West.
The Mavericks are, in point of fact, a bottom two team in the West.
Luka...
The Mavericks were pretty comfortably ahead of the sub-.500 Trail Blazers for the seven seed last year.
The Mavericks were only two games out of the four seed last year.
The Mavericks started Kristips Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Tim Hardaway next to Luka for 76%, 95%, and 95% of their games last year.
This year they're also starting those three, and have done so for 54% 63% and 96% of their games, or 71% vs. 89%.
That's lower but doesn't seem like it should be the difference between borderline #4 seed and borderline #1 pick (that the Knicks would make).
Last year the fifth starter was a mash-up of Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, and Steph Curry's BROTHER.
This year the fifth starter is a mash-up of Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, and Willie Cauley-Stein.
Last year they had brilliant warlock hasn't been out of the first round in a decade Rick Carlisle as head coach.
This year they have brilliant warlock still hasn't been out of the first round in a decade Rick Carlisle as head coach.
.
We can also see that Luka's stats are down across the board:
-PTS/TSA are down from 1.17 to 1.14.
--This doesn't seem that big a deal except league average is 1.14.
--Not generating much value if you're just plunking 'em in like an average Joe.
---Making matters worse, this drop is on two fronts.
---After taking 69% of his shots at the rim or from three last year (nice), he's plummeted to 55% this year.
---And even when he does get to either area, he's converting at a far lower rate (1.16 last year, 1.09 this year).
-Raising further concerns in the atha-leticism department,
--his rebounds are down from 10 per 36 last year to 9 this year, and
--his already middling 2.5 worse team defensive points per 100 possessions has crept up to 3.1 worse this year
-His passing has gotten slightly better both in volume and efficiency:
--from 9.5 to 9.8 assists per 36, and
--from 2.1 AST:TOV to 2.3, but even that isn't an unalloyed good thing because
--passing that inefficient is still a net negative.
These are all relatively small drops, but they all add up, and specifically they add up to his very respectable .21 WS/48 last year dropping to .16 this year - above average, but firmly in "good to very good, not great" territory.
.
.
Luka Doncic is further from statistical MVP contention than Paul George.
Yes, that Paul George.
This is not a "diss", it's an objective true fact that is correct.
You're still gonna hear someone talk about Luka Doncic as an MVP type player, soon.
The next time you do, I want you to close your eyes.
I want you to picture that sweet boy.
And imagine he was black.
9 - Bucks
9 - Jazz
8 - Lakers
6 - Clippers
4 or lower - everyone else
Historically, the best player among those on the top two teams in each conference has been a great candidate for MVP, and giving the MVP to someone else has very rapidly turned into a retroactive embarrassment... your '17 Westbrook over Kawhis, your '11 Rose over Gasols, your '08 Bryant over Pauls, your '01 Iverson over O'Neals.
We know the Bucks are going to be a top two team in the East, the second is anyone's guess, and the two from the West will probably be of the Jazz Lakers or Clippers.
We know the best players from those teams are Giannis Antetokounmpo, TBD, Rudy Gobert, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard.
And we know what the top five MVP odds (with ties) were going into the season.
Luka Doncic +400
Giannis Antetokounmpo +450
Kevin Durant +800
Stephen Curry +1000
Joel Embiid +1000
LeBron James +1000
Embiid's team and the team Durant is on are in the barnburner of a slobberknocker for the second best team in the East, so they're certainly both in contention for that TBD slot, so let's start with them.
Joel Embiid is flirting with .300 WS/48, a feat last achieved by Steph Curry, LeBron James, LeBron James But For the 09 Cavs So It Should Probably Count Double, Michael Jordan, Michael Jordan, Michael Jeffrey Jordan, and Nobody Else Since the Merger.
He is doing this with his most productive teammate being Steph Curry's brother. (Not his last shout-out in this post.)
He is doing this with 29 points and 11 rebounds per game shooting 39% from three.
If he gets up to 30 10 40%, he would be the first player to sport those figures since James Naismith nailed up the peach baskets.
1891 - present.
Joel Embiid.
End of list.
.
Kevin Durant's most productive teammate is actually more productive than him, the 2018 MVP James Harden, acquired mid-season in trade.
Combined with his continued age- and injury- related decline from his prime, and he's probably out.
.
Stephen Curry's team is so many parsecs ahead of mere mortals that they are currently supporting him with 28% from three Kelly Oubre and 19% from three Draymond Green.
Okay but the "triple point shot" is filth flarn filth, there's more to winning basketball than that. By Win Shares his fellow starters are
.07 Andrew Wiggins
.05 James Wiseman
.04 Draymond Green
.02 Kelly Oubre
Put all that together and you almost (but not quite) get to two league average players.
Good luck finding that for $75m this year alone!!
.
Luka Doncic.
Luka "Doesn't Have a Middle Name" Doncic.
Luka "ACB MVP" Doncic.
Luka "ACB MVP One Less Time than Nikola Mirotic" Doncic.
The Mavericks are not a top two team in the West.
The Mavericks are not a playoff team in the West.
The Mavericks are, in point of fact, a bottom two team in the West.
Luka...
The Mavericks were pretty comfortably ahead of the sub-.500 Trail Blazers for the seven seed last year.
The Mavericks were only two games out of the four seed last year.
The Mavericks started Kristips Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Tim Hardaway next to Luka for 76%, 95%, and 95% of their games last year.
This year they're also starting those three, and have done so for 54% 63% and 96% of their games, or 71% vs. 89%.
That's lower but doesn't seem like it should be the difference between borderline #4 seed and borderline #1 pick (that the Knicks would make).
Last year the fifth starter was a mash-up of Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, and Steph Curry's BROTHER.
This year the fifth starter is a mash-up of Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Jalen Brunson, and Willie Cauley-Stein.
Last year they had brilliant warlock hasn't been out of the first round in a decade Rick Carlisle as head coach.
This year they have brilliant warlock still hasn't been out of the first round in a decade Rick Carlisle as head coach.
.
We can also see that Luka's stats are down across the board:
-PTS/TSA are down from 1.17 to 1.14.
--This doesn't seem that big a deal except league average is 1.14.
--Not generating much value if you're just plunking 'em in like an average Joe.
---Making matters worse, this drop is on two fronts.
---After taking 69% of his shots at the rim or from three last year (nice), he's plummeted to 55% this year.
---And even when he does get to either area, he's converting at a far lower rate (1.16 last year, 1.09 this year).
-Raising further concerns in the atha-leticism department,
--his rebounds are down from 10 per 36 last year to 9 this year, and
--his already middling 2.5 worse team defensive points per 100 possessions has crept up to 3.1 worse this year
-His passing has gotten slightly better both in volume and efficiency:
--from 9.5 to 9.8 assists per 36, and
--from 2.1 AST:TOV to 2.3, but even that isn't an unalloyed good thing because
--passing that inefficient is still a net negative.
These are all relatively small drops, but they all add up, and specifically they add up to his very respectable .21 WS/48 last year dropping to .16 this year - above average, but firmly in "good to very good, not great" territory.
.
.
Luka Doncic is further from statistical MVP contention than Paul George.
Yes, that Paul George.
This is not a "diss", it's an objective true fact that is correct.
You're still gonna hear someone talk about Luka Doncic as an MVP type player, soon.
The next time you do, I want you to close your eyes.
I want you to picture that sweet boy.
And imagine he was black.
