Post by eric on May 5, 2022 12:17:02 GMT -5
this came up in shout yesterday so i thought i'd do a deeper dive. all these numbers come from California because they're literally the only state that posts them
these are the number of deaths by unvaccinated, fully vaccinated but not boosted, and boosted since November 2021, which was the first month more than 10% of the population was boosted:
but they aren't that helpful since the size of the populations changed over that period, from 6m 21m 5m respectively in November to 4m 12m 15m in March
one easy way to take that into account is to use relative risk:
if we have group A and group B in a population of 20m and 10m respectively, and
group A sees 2000 deaths while group B sees 1000, then we see
(2000/20m) / (1000/10m) = 1
and neither group is at higher relative risk, group A simply sees more deaths because it is larger
if group A sees 20,000 deaths while group B sees 100, then we see
(20000/20m) / (100/10m) = 100
and group A is it dramatically higher relative risk than group B
here is how the three ratios have progressed in this period:
the unvaccinated are currently at dramatically more risk than the vaccinated and comically more risk than the boosted, and
the unboosted are at somewhat more risk than the boosted
this is still true in the present even though the protections have waned dramatically in this period
but while the virus killed more unvaccinated Californians in January 2022, and indeed more than any month since January 2021, the protection enjoyed by the vaccinated hasn't slipped that much since then, deaths for both groups are down mostly proportionally because the number of cases has declined so much. the protection enjoyed by the boosted has declined more noticeably, which makes sense since boosters are so much more recent than vaccinations and the decline is exponential rather than linear. all of this suggests the boosted population (without additional boosters) will also reach a plateau in relative risk that keeps them well ahead of the unvaccinated and some degree ahead of the vaccinated and not boosted
it is therefore a proven good idea to get up to three doses, but it bears repeating that this is in terms of relative risk to the unvaccinated, who saw more deaths in January 2022 than they had in any month in the year before then. as new variants (or even the same ones) continue to emerge and kill more, the raw risk to the boosted will continue to escalate: more and more boosted will die from COVID
these are the number of deaths by unvaccinated, fully vaccinated but not boosted, and boosted since November 2021, which was the first month more than 10% of the population was boosted:
mo u v b
nov 1607 424 14
dec 1560 369 39
jan 3545 1491 437
feb 2544 1110 476
mar 609 289 168but they aren't that helpful since the size of the populations changed over that period, from 6m 21m 5m respectively in November to 4m 12m 15m in March
one easy way to take that into account is to use relative risk:
if we have group A and group B in a population of 20m and 10m respectively, and
group A sees 2000 deaths while group B sees 1000, then we see
(2000/20m) / (1000/10m) = 1
and neither group is at higher relative risk, group A simply sees more deaths because it is larger
if group A sees 20,000 deaths while group B sees 100, then we see
(20000/20m) / (100/10m) = 100
and group A is it dramatically higher relative risk than group B
here is how the three ratios have progressed in this period:
mo u/v u/b v/b
nov 13 89 7
dec 14 66 5
jan 7 21 3
feb 7 18 3
mar 6 13 2the unvaccinated are currently at dramatically more risk than the vaccinated and comically more risk than the boosted, and
the unboosted are at somewhat more risk than the boosted
this is still true in the present even though the protections have waned dramatically in this period
but while the virus killed more unvaccinated Californians in January 2022, and indeed more than any month since January 2021, the protection enjoyed by the vaccinated hasn't slipped that much since then, deaths for both groups are down mostly proportionally because the number of cases has declined so much. the protection enjoyed by the boosted has declined more noticeably, which makes sense since boosters are so much more recent than vaccinations and the decline is exponential rather than linear. all of this suggests the boosted population (without additional boosters) will also reach a plateau in relative risk that keeps them well ahead of the unvaccinated and some degree ahead of the vaccinated and not boosted
it is therefore a proven good idea to get up to three doses, but it bears repeating that this is in terms of relative risk to the unvaccinated, who saw more deaths in January 2022 than they had in any month in the year before then. as new variants (or even the same ones) continue to emerge and kill more, the raw risk to the boosted will continue to escalate: more and more boosted will die from COVID