Post by TinyTimPig on Mar 25, 2022 12:29:13 GMT -5
Biggest Offseasons Ahead
1. Charlotte Hornets - The reckoning is coming for the Hornets, who have spent 100% of Fecta’s invested time in 6.0 on building this team and dreading this offseason. Expiring are four of his five starters and every backup. In fact, the entire roster is expiring with the exception of Dajuan Wagner. KCP’s sweetheart deal expires and he’ll be in line for a deal that should hit $8m+ per year while Butch, Tinsley, and Whitehead will all see their rookie deals expire. After three of those four get substantial raises (surely Fecta won’t keep both PGs), you have the KAT and KCP situations to deal with. The Hornets have no real picks to speak of for the next five years and losing any major contributor from this squad could spell armageddon.
2. Pittsburgh Pipers - The first big decision in Pittsburgh surrounds the first overall pick. Len Bias is *probably* the guy but BA has made it known he’s very open to trading the pick and has received a couple of solid offers. That decision likely impacts the rest of what he does this offseason. The core that was supposed to bring glory to Pittsburgh alongside Patrick Ewing - Jahlil Okafor, Jaron Blossomgame, and John Beckman - are all aging and due to be re-signed. BA will probably try to hold on to as many of those players as he can on reasonable contracts with the hope he can flip them to a contender for some form of compensation, but it’s a tough game to play when you have to get creative with contracts and can’t just hit the MAX button.
3. Dallas Mavericks - One of the teams in the running to snag this year’s 1.1 #pigbomb. The Mavericks’ offseason could go in a few different directions depending on what happens with that pick. I’d say LeBron is as entrenched as anyone can be on a Dirt-GM’d team, but after that, who knows where the roster will end up? We saw a couple of big moves today that sent Justise Winslow and Jonathan Motley packing and brought Desmond Mason to town. With those trades they were able to clear up some salary and add picks which likely reduced the drama for the offseason ahead, but the question now becomes whether or not Dirt, after adding a SG in Desmond Mason, would still want to snag this year’s 1.1 that seems earmarked for Len Bias, or if that trade has been pulled off the table.
4. Seattle SuperSonics - After getting abused last year, the Sonics once again appear ready to be hurt again with Jayson Tatum, Michael Cooper, and Clemon Johnson all ready to hit free agency. The Sonics spent a top 10 pick on Tatum to replace Dominique Wilkins which meant they could hang on to Al and Dwight, but don’t really have the firepower to go out and add a wing to replace Tatum if it comes to that. Cooper has been a fixture and the definition of a glue guy, but determining what sort of contract a player like him is worth is tough and his value is likely perceived very differently depending on who you ask. Finally, you have Clemon Johnson - another non-max player, but one who still plays an important role on the Sonics this season.
5. Toronto Raptors - Outside of Kareem, there isn’t much on the Raptors roster that makes your jaw drop, but they’ve done a good job of building depth and adding solid contributors to surround their star big man. That depth could take a hit this offseason with three major contributors hitting free agency in Joe Lapchick, Purvis Short, and Terry Rozier. Purvis’ pay raise will likely come in the form of pay cuts for Lapchick and Rozier, but Delap could be in trouble if anyone tries to throw a longer-term deal at one of those two. It seems unlikely for Rozier, but I could see someone ponying up for Lapchick, who will be 30 this offseason and still have a few good years left in the tank.
Mock Draft
*These picks were made before the final college sim was posted and before 1.1s were swapped*
1.1 Pittsburgh Pipers - Brad Daugherty
I actually think this pick gets traded to Dallas or elsewhere, but if it stays in Pittsburgh, I think BA ignores the analysts and grabs Brad Daugherty. Like Len Bias, he’s an excellent scorer who has major turnover issues, but he has A potential that Bias can’t match. Bias is a big time scorer and rebounder who doesn’t play defense and gets extremely low minutes similar to former Pipers draft pick Martell Webster, but unlike Webster, his potential is in the dumps. BA might also be scarred by the last ready-made low-potential guy he took at 1.1 in Patrick Ewing. If Daugherty doesn’t need upgrades to jumper and only a few to inside, perhaps you can devote the majority to solving his turnovers and hope the high potential improves his defense and rebounding.
1.2 Cleveland Cavaliers - Len Bias
Sap doesn’t hesitate to pick Bias, who seems like the 1.1 based on name recognition. The Cavs appear to have their PG of the future in Mo Williams and then a smattering of veterans who don’t appear to fit in their long-term plans. As a result, they go best player available and grab Bias, who will fit up the stat sheet for the next decade but will need to be placed in the right situation to compensate for his defensive shortcomings.
1.3 Chicago Stags - Dennis Rodman
Troy takes one look at the names in the draft and the grades and sees a couple of Bs and a couple of As attached to Rodman. He should be perhaps the best rebounder the league has ever seen but will offer little else if his potential doesn’t cause something crazy to happen. Fortunately for the rest of the league, we’ll see how the potential works out over the next four seasons before needing to commit to Rodman long term. The bigger question - with both AndrewLuck and Odin gone, does Troy bother logging on to submit the pick?
1.4 Atlanta Hawks - John Salley
This is a really ugly draft and I have no idea how Kingb4yah thinks, but I do recall that he seems to know the value of blocked shots, so he drafts John Salley, a fantastic defender who doesn’t turn it over but also doesn’t rebound or score. I was tempted to pick Mark Price here to add to the Hawks’ army of point guards, but Salley could be a valuable big in an outside offense. Pump upgrades into his rebounding, let the defense continue to thrive, and then add scorers at the guard positions.
1.5 Indiana Pacers - Kenny Gattison
The Pacers are set at the wing after adding Justise Winslow, but the bigs and point guard are lacking. Mark Price doesn’t strike me as a Heebs type player so they go with Kenny Gattison, a solid defender with some scoring punch. He’s not a ready-made player by any means with turnover and efficiency issues, but I’m not sure there’s a player like that in this entire draft. Gattison at least has B potential and the possibility of some growth.
Position Rankings
Point Guards
1. Markelle Fultz - The total package, Fultz is one of few PGs who can thrive in an inside or outside offense. In addition to his scoring efficiency, he’s an elite rebounder for the position near the top of the league in steals. His turnover issues from earlier in his career have also largely disappeared.
2. Harry Hough - After a bit of a down year last season, Hough is back to doing his thing and hoping to lead the Rockets to the promised land. It appears that adding another weapon in the backcourt in Terrance Ferguson has taken some pressure off of the little man and while he isn’t scoring with the volume he used to (because he doesn’t need to), his efficiency has jumped back up.
3. Shaun Livingston - Livingston became a real three-point threat this year which has bumped him up into the conversation for best PGs in the league. He doesn’t have the defensive counting numbers of Fultz, but the A- grade would seem to indicate that he is capable of holding his own on that end of the floor.
Shooting Guards
1. Victor Oladipo - It’s been easy to lose sight of him this year, but Oladipo 38 points per 36 in addition to excellent rebounding and defense. The only flaw comes in the form of turnovers, but when you’re in possession of the ball as much as he is, it’s hard not to give it away a couple of times per game.
2. Terrance Ferguson - A huge addition for the Rockets, Ferguson has been everything KC hoped for when he traded 1.2 for him. He’s been racking up the win shares and been the perfect complement to Hough in Houston’s backcourt.
3. Dajuan Wagner - Despite being 32 years old, Wagner still ranks up there with the elite. He scores at volume incredibly efficiently and never turns it over while playing solid defense. He doesn’t rebound as well as the two above him but that’s more of a nice-to-have attribute for a shooting guard than a requirement.
Small Forwards
1. Dominique Wilkins - Wilkins holds on to the top spot for now, but this is likely his last year as the best small forward in the league. This will be his ninth consecutive season averaging 30+ points and 8.6+ rebounds per game - amazing consistency even into his older years. He still has a Germany pick in his back pocket so he could maintain this spot if LeBron doesn’t see decent TC improvement.
2. LeBron James - The scoring is slightly above average, but that will surely become elite soon enough as he’s already an exceptional outside scorer and still has +5 that appears destined to go to his inside. What sets LeBron apart is the defense, where he averages a block per 36 from the wing. Many assumed TOs would be his achilles heel, but those aren’t an issue at all with just 2.1 per 36.
3. Larry Bird - I like Bird, but perhaps not quite as much as some other GMs in the league. He’s a great scorer and rebounder but doesn’t offer much defense to speak of. I see him as a poor man’s Dominique, which is to say that he’s still very good, but a notch below the best.
Power Forwards
1. Juwan Howard - Power forward is a tough position as it seems most elite prospects come into the league as centers, so picking from just the listed PFs means this position becomes semi-bare while there are too many good centers to count. That said, Howard takes the top spot as an efficient scorer who doesn’t turn it over and has shown life as a defender, nearly reaching 1 steal and 1 block per 36. If he can see just a slight uptick in rebounding and defense, he’s special.
2. Carlos Boozer - Old as hell but still doing his thing, Boozer continues to score and rebound at an impressive rate. As I recall, his athletic attributes weren’t remarkably high coming into the league, so he may continue to perform at this level for a few more years.
3. Elvin Hayes - He’s kind of like Boozer but turns it over a bit more and is significantly younger. I don’t see Hayes changing much over the next few years, but he seems best paired with another big who plays more capable defense than Juwan Howard.
Centers
1. Myles Turner - Turner and Kareem look a lot alike when it comes to scoring and defense, but what Turner lacks in rebounding he makes up for with miniscule turnovers. He’s been out of this world this season, averaging 4 blocks per 36 in addition to 1.19 pts/tsa and just 1.3 turnovers. His worst attribute - rebounding - isn’t even bad at 10.9 per 36 this year.
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - Kareem is everything Myles is except that he rebounds a bit more and turns it over twice as much (probably more if this season isn’t an outlier). Still, we’ve seen that Kareem is basically capable of winning a ring as the only superstar on his team, which not many players in the league can say.
3. Dwight Howard - A different type of player than the other two, Dwight turns it over like Kareem without nearly the offensive output. It’s his defense that sets him apart as he gets blocks, steals, and rebounds unlike anyone we’ve seen in 6.0. I don’t recall seeing someone in any 5.0 or 6.0 (I didn’t look super closely) who has led the league in all three categories during a single season.
