Post by Handsome Pete on Mar 16, 2022 16:57:26 GMT -5
Dallas MavericksLast year's record: 37-45, missed playoffs
Key Additions: LeBron James, Ike Anigbogu, Ndudi Ebi
Key Losses: Peter John Ramos
Major Offseason moves: Hung onto 1.1 through 5 seasons to draft LeBron James, traded 1.5 in 3028 for Ike Anigbogu
Current Outlook: Away we grow
The King is here, and no one is happier than the GM who waited so patiently to draft him. Dirt managed to keep himself from dealing one of the most sought-after draft picks in league history and now gets the privilege of at least 4 seasons to build around LeBron. He's been working the past few seasons in the usual flurry of trades to construct a solid team around James, and at the very least the Mavs should be among the best defensive teams in the league this season. The 5th pick in 3028 is a reasonable price tag for Anigbogu, a former DPOY who can also provide some juice on the offensive end. Paired with the veteran Motley and Montross, the Mavs will have three bigs capable of protecting the paint who won't kill their offensive flow. Montross had a very strong rookie campaign but needs to become a better rebounder if he hopes to eventually find starter minutes. On the wings, James is as ready-made as they come on defense and could absolutely explode with some TC luck, while Justise Winslow is neck and neck with Giannis and Kawhi for the best wing defender in the league. Both wings can rebound well enough to cover for Montross and the other wings' deficiencies.
Outside of the two big names on the outside, Dirt is hoping his high potential young trio of Ndudi Ebi, Eddie Jones and Michael Ray Richardson can get some strong growth and be able to contribute at a high level. If not, Dirt will be quick to make some deals and bring in players who can. The biggest weakness for this team will likely be efficiency on the offensive end. James is going to be raw even with a full complement of upgrades and Winslow is a career 1.10 Pts/TSA scorer. Dirt has amassed a lot of uppies for this season so expect some good improvement on that end from some of the young Mavs, but I think they might still be a year or two away from being a complete team.
The big X factor is what Dirt does with the 1.1 he netted in the Markelle Fultz swaps last season. He's made no secret that he's looking to move it and seems eager to bring in Dwight Howard. That would be a massive upgrade for his already elite defensive team, but might end up hurting his offensive efficiency even more. That pick will almost certainly get dealt this season, so his team outlook could change drastically depending on the caliber of return he gets.
Future Outlook: Fireworks ahead
Let's be honest, all of what I wrote above is likely to be irrelevant by sim 6 of this year. Dirt is not one to sit idly by, and he's got some youth and draft capital to swing a league-altering move. Projecting where he'll be over the next few seasons is a fool's errand. But Dirt knows what he has in LeBron and he's going to do whatever he can over the next 4 seasons to build a championship-level team around him. The rest of the roster will be turned over, likely multiple times, within the next few seasons, but I expect Dirt to get the Mavs to a place as perennial favorites in the Midwest as LeBron grows into the all-league talent we expect him to be.
Cap-wise the Mavs are in good shape, only carrying a few big money deals that all expire within the next 3 seasons. My guess is we see only one of the perimeter trio of Jones, Ebi and MRR pan out for the Mavs, but Dirt looks like he's building an inside-oriented team to play to LeBron's strengths so that's all he would need. There is also a possibility that LeBron gets killed in TC, in which case his floor is a Justise Winslow-like career and the Mavs top out as a middle of the pack playoff team. I don't think that happens, and I like the Mavs to ascend to the top tier of the league by year 3 of LeBron's career.
Projection: After dealing 1.1 for an all-league talent, Mavs win 50+ games this season. They are a 60 win team and make the conference finals at some point in Lebron's first four seasons
Houston RocketsLast year's record: 53-29, division champion, lost to Jazz in 7 games in Conference Semifinals
Key Additions: Terrence Ferguson, Lamar Green
Key Losses: Josh Hart, Al Cooper
Major Offseason moves: Resigned Harry Hough to a 6 yr $131M deal, traded the 3027 1.2 and players for Terrence Ferguson
Current Outlook: Hoping for a Shot
The Rockets emerged from a middling pack of Midwest teams last season to win over 50 games for the second consecutive year and take the division. They had a busy offseason, first resigning two-time MVP Harry Hough to a max deal and then trading for Terrance Ferguson shortly after TC. The Rockets are all-in for this season, and there's a lot to like here. Hough had a difficult season last year, missing a chunk of time with injury and scoring much less efficiently than we're used to. He's still just 28, so the hope is that last year was an aberration and he'll be back to top form this season, but there's a chance his play continues to decline.
I love the trade for Ferguson, who is a perfect fit in the 3 point-heavy Rockets lineup and gives more scoring punch and a better all-around game than long-time starter Josh Hart. Juan Pablo Vaulet should be the other wing starter, and he will slot better into a role as a 3rd or 4th option. He's got a very high Q score as a name most in the league know, but his production has largely not matched his reputation and earning power, but he's turned it around in Houston the past two seasons with highly efficient scoring. Maybe being counted on less for offense will help reduce his turnover rate and we'll see his WS/48 climb above replacement-level. Richard Jefferson was a marquee addition a couple seasons ago but isn't the most natural fit due to his fatal allergy to shooting threes. Seriously, he carries an EpiPen with him in case he ever drifts outside of the paint on offense. Jefferson puts up a great FG% and is a perfectly capable back-up wing, but KC was probably hoping for a little more when making that trade.
While the perimeter should be the engine of this team, the bigs rotation has some serious question marks. Luther Rackley is a very good big man, doing everything from scoring well, blocking shots, grabbing rebounds, and taking care of the basketball. He's not a stud by any means, but he's a perfectly capable starting big for any team. The rest of the rotation will need to sort itself out. Tiny Ed Wachter is gone, and KC will need to hope that two guys out of Anthony Randolph, Stromile Swift, Kenyon Martin and Lamar Green can be counted on for big minutes. All of them can rebound and block some shots, so that may be all the Rockets are looking for anyway.
This should be a very strong team and are likely the favorites to win the division again this season. They've got a good shot to make a run this season, but their success in the postseason hinges on whether or not Hough can get back to MVP form.
Future Outlook: A closing window
The immediate future looks good for the Rockets, but it's clear they are in win-now mode and their situation is less rosy projecting over the next few seasons. The majority of their team is in their prime heading towards the decline phase, and they've got big money committed to their four core players. Vaulet has been a much more efficient scorer the past couple seasons and could keep it up for a few more years, but if his scoring efficiency edges closer to his career mark then this contract will be an albatross. Hough has been a star for years, and I think KC made the right decision to retain him and hope for a bounce-back year. I would be very nervous about that contract, and if last year proves to be a trend rather than an aberration, this team is toast.
The cap situation is really ugly next season, as they'll have 5 players under contract for a total of over $75m, so this year might be their one and only shot with the team as it's constructed. The development pipeline is rough as well. Jefferson looks like the only member of their core under 25, but he was a low potential prospect so he is not likely to get much better. KC dealt his 1.2 to maximize his chances, and now the cupboard is bare. He'll have to get creative in managing things the next couple seasons or he'll find himself with a long wait until his next premium pick and minimal trade pieces to add young talent.
I commend the decision to go for broke, but unfortunately that means there are going to be some lean years ahead.
Projection: The Ferguson deal launches him into the 60 win territory this year, but the Rockets fall into the bottom half of playoff teams the next season
Milwaukee BucksLast year's record: 44-38, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Joel Embiid, Kendrick Perkins, Ron Dunlap, Kyle Korver, Dahntay Jones
Key Losses: Viktor Sanikidze
Major Offseason moves: signed Ron Dunlap to a max, drafted Kendrick Perkins with the 5th pick
Current Outlook: Shuffling pieces
Milwaukee took a step back last season after winning the division in 3020 and 3021, finishing outside of the playoffs by 1 game after dealing budding stars like Elvin Hayes and Bingo Smith and losing JR Smith in free agency. Last year and this year are likely to be transition years for this franchise, although the roster this season looks a lot more like a playoff roster than last year.
The biggest story last season was the performance of Glenn Robinson. Robinson was a question mark of a prospect thanks to his poor handling and defense, and he will probably need some luck to get 30 minutes per game from the compucoach. Even the biggest hater can't knock the scoring efficiency from Big Dawg, who put up a sterling 1.23 Pts/TSA. Another big move from last season was the deal with the Mavericks to swap Johnathan Motley for Shaun Livingston. Motley has served the franchise well, but Livingston is a young point guard who continues to improve and is a better fit for the Bucks timetable. The wing rotation is filled out by more youth with Charlie Bell, Kyle Korver and Dahntay Jones. Bell was a top 10 selection a couple seasons ago and could take a leap this season, especially after a good TC. He's a strong defender but his offensive game needs some polish and if he shoots like he did last year he'll be on the outside looking in. Korver is a Trofie and will be given every chance to succeed, while Jones looks like he could become a solid back-up wing despite a subpar TC.
The front court has been remade this offseason, starting with the max deal for Ron Dunlap. Dunlap has spent his first four seasons in the Anaheim Amigos spin machine, where he provided efficient scoring and good defense. There have been a lot of question marks around whether Dunlap is worth the deal, but I don't mind it. He's not a volume scorer but he takes care of the ball, rebounds fairly well, and provides enough defense to get an all-defensive 2nd team nod last season. He's probably a bit overpaid but there's no doubt he's a good player, and the Bucks have healthy enough cap to take a swing. The -2 in TC is not a great omen though. Joel Embiid was brought in on the MLE to fill out the other starting spot. He's getting up there and isn't the player he was with the Knicks, but he is a great value on an MLE. Kendrick Perkins was the #5 overall pick this season and looked good in the college stats. He could be a factor this season or get a redshirt for a season or two until he's ready. Fotsis and Dalembert are unlikely to get as many minutes this season but will be counted on for depth, while Tony Mitchell might get some burn as Trof experiments with an outside lineup.
Overall, this team is unlikely to challenge for the division and may still struggle to make the playoffs, but their success this season is secondary to finding pieces for the future.
Future Outlook: Waiting on a GOAT
Trofie has deliberately weakened his team from a 60-game winner a couple seasons ago to out of the playoffs last year. The reason: building a war chest of assets and resetting the timeline of his team to be ready for the #1 overall pick in what projects to be a LOADED 3025 draft class. Moving Motley for Livingston and trading Bingo for Glenn Robinson (and maybe trading Glenn Robinson for someone else) are clearly aimed at getting younger, and they've got a ton of youth and a bevy of other picks to either develop or deal for complementary stars.
There is an outside chance they could get there ahead of schedule if a guy like Livingston or Dunlap takes a big leap, but in all likelihood the Bucks will be making deals with 3025 in mind as the season to take a step back towards the top. Now that LeBron has entered the league, the top pick in the 86 draft might be the most valuable draft position remaining. As far as the future of what is currently on the roster, there is plenty of development to come. Livingston has been in the league for so long it's easy to forget that he's only 23, and Trofie's expressed interest in moving to an outside oriented offense may suggest that he's going to try to put more of the scoring burden on the PG, who has A outside and was highly efficient last season but has never topped 15 PPG. Glenn Robinson is most likely a finished product, but Charlie Bell still has A potential and could conceivably grow into a solid starter with a little more points in his offensive grades. The frontcourt is also hoping for some good growth from young players Samuel Dalembert and Kendrick Perkins.
Overall, it's too early to say how many of these players will be a part of the team in a few years but if any of these young players can grow into an all-star contributor, Trofie will have a stew going when MJ/Hakeem/Barkley join the team.
Projection: Misses playoffs this season, low seed next season, but a top 4 seed in 3025
San Antonio SpursLast year's record: 45-37, swept by the Grizzlies in round 1
Key Additions: Jason Kapono, James Jones
Key Losses: none
Major Offseason moves: Drafted a trio of wings w/ Kapono, Jones and Becirovic
Current Outlook: Where do we go from here?
The Spurs continue to chug along in 6.0, always hovering somewhere between playoff darkhorse and also-ran. They've done a pretty good job of drafting over 6.0, typically gambling on high potential picks. This season's Spurs team looks very similar to last season's team, with the only major changes being the addition of three outside-oriented rookies in James Jones, Jason Kapono and Sani Becirovic.
The team continues to position itself towards an outside oriented gameplan, headed by CJ McCollum. McCollum is a borderline all-league player who can fill it up from deep. He's 29 and not far from the decline phase of his career, but he's all but guaranteed to lead the Spurs in scoring again. The other wing spot is less clear. Dorrell Wright started last season and was OK, but looks like a SG who's position locked as a SF. The jury is out on the rest of the wings, all of whom look like 3 pt shooters who won't add much in defense or rebounding.
The point guard pairing is very interesting. Hanlan came out of nowhere to be a very productive player on the Cougars, but he's not the same player and should be relegated to the back-up spot. Dean Oliver looks like a player on the rise, averaging 1.21 Pts/TSA last season. His turnovers are a little higher than pointy would like and he's not gonna give you anything on the glass either, but he should be an easy choice to start.
The bigs are an eclectic group. You have veterans Nerlens Noel and Andrew Bynum who are fantastic rebounders and defenders but will not do much to help the offense, and then young players in Bob Miller and Pau Gasol who are more capable on offense but offer nothing in rim protection. Miller burst onto the scene last season by increasing to A+ inside, and will likely garner max contract offers this offseason if he hits free agency. Pau was a gamble on potential and still has +20 left, so it's too early to write him off, but he was not great in back-up minutes last season.
With only McCollum and Miller looking like reliable offensive weapons, and a lack of defense on the roster besides Noel and an aging Bynum, there are too many holes to expect any improvement from last year. This team will again be scrapping on the periphery of the playoffs and first round cannon fodder if they do make it.
Future Outlook: Building around the future
Pointy has some light on the horizon in the form of the first overall pick in 3027. There is no LeBron or MJ waiting for him (the 2006 NBA draft lacks a clear star), but Pointy would be wise to try to reset his team and accumulate assets that make sense with that window.
McCollum isn't going to get the return he might have a few seasons ago but should still command a good price from a team looking to compete, and Bob Miller would be highly sought after by anyone running an inside offense. He's expiring this year so Pointy might be better served trying to resign him this offseason and then dealing him. Noel is on a big money deal for a one-dimensional player, but he's been highly sought after by teams like the Knicks and Bobcats and should be able to fetch decent compensation as well.
I don't see any chance of this team taking a big step forward as currently constructed.
Projection: Misses the playoffs this season, then sells off a player or two but stops short of a full tear-down
Texas ChaparralsLast year's record: 44-38, missed playoffs
Key Additions: Carmelo Anthony, D'Angelo Russell
Key Losses: none
Major Offseason moves: Drafted Melo
Current Outlook: A return to the playoffs?
Chap is a loyal guy through and through, choosing to bring back nearly the same roster as last season's squad which finished just outside of the playoffs. The only major change is the selection of Carmelo Anthony at 1.3.
The strength of this team for the present and future is on the wings, where Anthony joins with Trevor Ariza and Jason Richardson to form a promising young rotation. Melo had a disappointing TC, however, dropping in inside scoring (yikes) and handles (meh). We would need to see under the hood to know whether this is as bad an omen as it looks, but he should still be a rock solid scorer after upgrades. Ariza's grades look great and he's already earned all-star and all-league honors, but the hopes of him becoming an efficient scoring option are dwindling. He's getting paid a max and will be counted on to produce on both ends, but his best role might be as a non-scoring option who can provide great defense and rebounding ala Kawhi. Richardson looks like the inverse of Ariza, an efficient scorer but less of a factor everywhere else. Najera will be a factor as well, and it's likely Chap moves one of these wings just to free up some minutes for the others (I hear Anaheim is looking for a wing...).
Will Solomon will likely get first crack at the starting point guard spot and can build on a nice debut season if he can cut down on his turnovers. The other options would be veterans D'Angelo Russell and Delon Wright.
The bigs are a concern for the Chaps hopes of improvement. Capela bounced back last season with his best shotblocking numbers ever and a better offensive season compared to the trainwreck that came before it. On the downside, he's 35 and who knows if last season was a dead cat bounce or a return to form. Przybilla is good offensively but weak on the glass, and Steve Neff is solid but probably not worth getting excited about, especially since he's fully upgraded. If any of those 3 get injured or fall off, the Chaps are in big troubgle, as the only other big on their roster is 35 year old Jerami Grant, who went a league-worst -4 in TC.
The strength and depth of talent on the wings gives Chap some ability to shore up some of the questions at big, but they're going to have a hard time challenging teams like Houston, Dallas and Utah for the division and may find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture again.
Future Outlook: Will the real Wing duo please stand up?
The future of this team is directly correlated with the ceiling for these wings. Ariza looks like the best hope for a two-way player but he was at 1.08 Pts/TSA last season and 1.12 for his career so it's fair to suggest he might have hit his ceiling as a player already. I'd like to see Richardson get the scoring volume Ariza has been given, but he might ultimately be an ideal backup SG/SF. Melo has the highest ceiling if his first TC didn't kill his potential, and with his inside maxed and non-existent passing, he could be the best volume scorer of the bunch, but there's a whole lot of unknowns.
The goal for Chap this season and moving forward needs to be sorting out what the best pairing is and committing to build around them. There isn't much upside beyond those wings, but Chap does have a 1.1 coming up in 5 seasons.
This team is more than one trade away, so I think the most likely course of action is Chap sees what he has, sells off some tertiary pieces, and looks to that pick as his best chance to level up into the contenders in the west.
Projection: Chap deals one of Ariza or Richardson to the Amigos for 3028 1.7, but remains a pretender for a few more seasons at least.
Utah JazzLast year's record: 49-33, swept by SuperSonics in Western Conference Finals
Key Additions: Reggie Bullock, Josh Powell
Key Losses: Rod Griffin, Mateen Cleaves
Major Offseason moves: resigned Elvin Hayes to a 7 year max worth $120M
Current Outlook: Locked In
After an extremely active season last year that saw the Jazz select 3 of the top 4 picks in the draft and trade for Robert Swift, Joe Dumars and Elvin Hayes, and make a deep run to the Conference Finals, Fason had a very quiet offseason. Virtually everyone is back, and he's banking on a full season with this new core to show that the Jazz are a much stronger team than their record last season indicates.
Let's start with the trio of top picks. Grant Hill was the clear #1 pick in the draft and won rookie of the year honors, but still fell short of lofty expectations. He's got a strong all-around game as well as a turnover problem (what else is new), but the most disappointing part of his game is the lackluster scoring numbers. Fason needs him to take a step forward and be more of a 25 PPG guy to maximize his chances of winning a title. Juwan Howard was a huge disappointment in TC and needs to improve as a rebounder, but he at least got a bump to his inside grade. The other bigs make his development less critical, but it will still be a disappointment if he can't ascend beyond career back-up. Kidd looks like he is a glue guy in the same vein as Fat Lever. That's not what you're hoping for in a 1.2, but he should still bring a lot of value to the table.
While the draft picks were a disappointment, the players received in trades were not. Swift is finally free of Kareem's shadow and should be in line for a breakout season with his first full complement of starter's minutes. Hayes was a tremendous scorer last season, topping 26 PPG on 1.24 Pts/TSA, 2nd best in the league. Both players will be relied on to carry the offensive burden this season while the young talent continues to develop. Dumars is the elder statesman and had a solid season last year, although his rebounding numbers took a big hit. He had a terrible -3 TC and would be a prime candidate for a trip to Germany, but sadly his passport has already been stamped. Fason will hope those grade drops are only cosmetic. If not, Dumars is a prime amnesty candidate.
Fason has committed a great deal of assets to this core, and they should be the biggest threat to the Rockets for the division. A couple seasons ago, I would've told you that this was a good bet to be a championship caliber roster in 3023. I'm more bearish now, and I have some doubts that this team is ready outside of Swift and Hayes.
Future Outlook: Don't Be Cruel
As the above suggests, the Jazz have a ton riding on Hill and Kidd (and a little riding on Juwan). They need Hill to be an offensive force, particularly as Dumars looks to be decaying rapidly. Hill still has 5 uppies and it will be interesting to see how Fason uses them, but mostly he's at the mercy of TC. If Hill can get some additional offensive growth and become a reliably efficient #1 option, then the trio of Hayes, Hill and Swift is looking good. If not, the Jazz may rethink their current roster and start looking for trades.
Kidd is never going to be a reliable offensive weapon, so for that pick to pan out he needs to become the greatest defender/rebounder we've seen at the point guard spot. He went +2 in defense this year so maybe he's on his way, but last season he wasn't as special there as I would've guessed.
I feel for Fason, who I think did everything right with his rebuild but got saddled with an underwhelming draft class and poor TC luck. This team is strong but their ceiling is not as high as it should be over the next few seasons. Maybe the lesson to take from this is it's safer to stagger high-level draft picks across two or three drafts rather than concentrating them all in one class.
Projection: 2nd in the division this season, but Fason pulls the rip cord on this core early to try and recoup maximum value
