Boosters (196 views)

[eric]

In the month of January 2022,
58,000 Americans died of COVID, of whom
12,000 were fully vaccinated, of whom
4,000 were vaccinated and boosted.

COVID was the leading cause of death in America,
the third leading cause of death for vaccinated Americans, and
the fourth leading cause of death for vaccinated and boosted Americans.
(This doesn't sound like much of an improvement but it is, 4th happens to be way lower than 3rd.)

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There are 38 countries in the OECD.
Of these, America ranks 37th in the % of people who got their first dose receiving their second.
And it is a distant 37th:



While every other OECD country (except Colombia!) has seen more than 90% of the people who received their first dose return for their second, in America we are just below 85%. Note that this has nothing to with people who have not been vaccinated at all: 16,000,000 Americans simply never completed the journey from partially vaccinated to fully vaccinated. We do better in the % of people who received their second dose going back for their booster, ranking all the way up at 33rd! But we still do an objectively bad job, with only 44% of our fully vaccinated getting boosted when many countries are already in the 70%s, leaving 120,000,000 Americans in that third leading cause of death bin. It is also not a question of being slow and steady, in both cases the rate of increase has slowed dramatically:

29 days it took us to get from 10% of the population fully vaccinated to 20%,
20 days from 20% to 30%,
23 days from 30% to 40%,
63 days from 40% to 50%,
135 days from 50% to 60%, and
94 days later we haven't even reached 65%.

37 days it took us to get from 10% of the population boosted to 20%, and
72 days later we still haven't reached 30%.

Pending a sudden, significant, and sustained push for the vaccinated to get boosted, we likely will never reach even half the population boosted as deadlier and deadlier variants continue to emerge.

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I keep posting the numbers about the risk the vaccinated still face because without them we cannot make informed decisions about whether things like the mild inconvenience of a booster shot or the very mild inconvenience of a mask are worth it. Breakthrough deaths for the boosted in February are not yet available, but even though total deaths were about the same at 59,000 breakthrough deaths for the fully vaccinated in total in February markedly increased to 16,000.

[delap]

[pointyegg]

If you ever feel inclined, I'd love to see some statistics on COVID and vaccines with children. How many get the shot and how many contract the virus? Of those vaccinated, what's the percentage of myocarditis or any other related deficiencies ?

[eric]

Mar 10, 2022 10:16:43 GMT -5 pointyegg said:

If you ever feel inclined, I'd love to see some statistics on COVID and vaccines with children. How many get the shot and how many contract the virus? Of those vaccinated, what's the percentage of myocarditis or any other related deficiencies ?

the first two are easy

as of today 31% of kids are fully vaccinated, which by age bracket is 58% of twelve to seventeen years old, 27% of five to eleven years old, and 0% of under fives. for boosters it's 4%, which is 13% of twelve to seventeen years old and 0% the rest. the cdc updates those numbers every day, or say they will

as of march third 661 children have died from covid in the past year. the american academy of pediatrics updates those numbers every week, and a rolling three week average shows how dramatically the situation changed with the onset of delta and omicron:



another way of looking at it is that there have been 13 weeks where twenty or more children died from covid, 0 of which took place in the first 74 weeks of the pandemic and all of which took place in the last 29. in the endless covid world we're looking at 1,000 dead american kids a year from covid, more as vaccine effectiveness continues to wane and even more if we get another even deadlier variant. for reference the flu killed 293 in 2019 and measles killed 380 in 1960 (before vaccination)

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myocarditis is complicated because a lot of things (including covid) causes it, so if a kid is vaccinated and has covid and has asthma and gets myocarditis, which caused it? we can get a bead on this by looking at the increase in myocarditis from march 2020 through january 2021 for those sixteen years old and younger, since at that point practically none of them had been vaccinated. when the cdc looked at 3.74 million such kids they found 65k had had covid of whom 86 had myocarditis (13.3 per 10,000) and 3.67m hadn't had covid of whom 132 had myocarditis (.4 per 10,000). in the first two months of 2022 there have been 51 reports of myocarditis in kids in VAERS after getting a covid vaccine and about 4m kids vaccinated. there's no breakdown of cases by vaccination status, but even if none of them had covid this would still be .1 per 10,000 and lower than the pre vaccinated non covid risk

what happens when you're looking at something that barely has an effect is sometimes you'll see evidence of it and sometimes you won't. you can find other studies and comparisons that show evidence the other way, maybe a 50% increase in risk or 100%, and it doesn't mean either is wrong, just that the effect is barely there and things that are barely there are hard to see through random noise. covid increases the risk of myocarditis in children by over 3,000% - that's the kind of effect you'll see every single time

[pointyegg]

Interesting. I was always under the impression that the vaccine was the main cause of the spike of myocarditis.

Regarding the graph, what do you think caused that major spike? The Delta variant? If I'm remembering correctly, in one of your previous articles you somewhat implied that the death numbers could be easily skewed. I'm a firm believer of that. It's common knowledge that hospitals are incentivized to report COVID deaths. I hate to be anecdotal in this situation but when the Delta variant was at its peak according to news outlets, I heard little to no mentions of anyone I know or interacted with being severely affected by Delta. All that is to say that I'm just a little weary of those numbers as well considering the CDC and other official agencies haven't had the best track record over the past couple of years.

Thanks for that btw

[killiam bing]

covid has been shown to cause myocarditis and that has been known for at least a year now.

also, my girlfriend works in healthcare and every hospital around us (north carolina) was constantly turning people away due to lack of beds. she works in a rural hospital here, and normally people with serious illnesses would get transported to a higher level of care at a real hospital. those hospitals (mostly in norfolk) would almost always be full and so the people would not get transported. those people would then die here due to lacking proper care. these are not covid patients, but people that would have strokes etc. So for every "extra reported covid death" that facebook tells you the hospitals are doing, you have an actually real effect where people are dying because of other people getting covid keeping beds fill, and those are NOT counted as covid-caused deaths, even though they definitely are.

[eric]

Mar 11, 2022 9:56:18 GMT -5 pointyegg said:

Interesting. I was always under the impression that the vaccine was the main cause of the spike of myocarditis.

Regarding the graph, what do you think caused that major spike? The Delta variant? If I'm remembering correctly, in one of your previous articles you somewhat implied that the death numbers could be easily skewed. I'm a firm believer of that. It's common knowledge that hospitals are incentivized to report COVID deaths. I hate to be anecdotal in this situation but when the Delta variant was at its peak according to news outlets, I heard little to no mentions of anyone I know or interacted with being severely affected by Delta. All that is to say that I'm just a little weary of those numbers as well considering the CDC and other official agencies haven't had the best track record over the past couple of years.

Thanks for that btw

yeah it is definitely the case that covid happened, the vaccine happened, and there's a big spike in myocarditis... but especially with kids there's a really big gap between the first two where we can see that the spike started way before the vaccine, and cause has to come before effect, dr. whom can go screw. anyone who isn't including that midpoint in what they're showing you is trying to hide something

the thing with death numbers is here is the change in total US death numbers year over year for 2001-2020



again these are total deaths, so it's not enough for people to have arbitrarily added covid to death certificates, they would've had to manufacture a half a friggin' million of them out of nowhere and never once gotten caught, or some other cause suddenly got twice or five or six times as bad out of nowhere. you probably heard about the big surge in murders we had in 2020 right? what that turns out to mean is that there were 5,000 more murders in 2020 than 2019, so we've got 499,000 more to explain... sooner or later the simplest explanation is the best, that covid actually did kill a shit ton of people who wouldn't have died anyway in 2020, and kept right on doing so in 2021, and is currently and actively keeping on doing so in 2022

now when it comes to kids specifically, pre-delta covid was actually flu-like for them, so the 2019 to 2020 numbers don't show that big jump; in fact, continuing the long term trend, child deaths dropped slightly from 2019 to 2020. 2021 numbers aren't out yet but since delta didn't take over until august there probably won't be a big yearly jump there either. with all that said, yes absolutely delta and then omicron plus sending them all back to school caused that big jump: deadlier virus + more exposure = more death, it seems to me like any other hypothesis is straining to do some 'splaining