Post by eric on Jan 20, 2022 22:53:11 GMT -5
I was wondering if the current state of 25 and under NBA players was as bad as it seemed, if that was unusual, and what if anything it indicated about the NBA going forward. Here's the graph of the average of the top five Win Shares among 25 and under players (prorated to 82 games for strike seasons) with a rolling five year average since the merger.
We see our first peak in 1989 when Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, and Karl Malone were #1 #2 and #5 in Win Shares at exactly 25 years old... which of course is why the graph falls off so sharply immediately after, bottoming out in the mid 90s with the likes of Vin Baker and Gheorghe Muresan as top five 25 and unders, which in turn forecasted the NBA going into such a lull after the 90s golden age when it didn't after the 80s golden age.
And the same works in the other direction, with a surge of young greatness that peaked in 2010 when Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Dwight Howard were #1 #2 and #3 in Win Shares as 25 and unders, preceding as night the day the golden age of the 10s.
Then we started falling back through the Steph Currys and James Hardens and Giannis Antetokounmpos, who hold up the top end reasonably well but there's also a lot of Kemba Walker and Andre Drummond involved, and now we've got left as the top guy... Jarrett Allen? With a crisp projected 12.3 Win Shares???
There is a great- well, a very good- well, an adequate white hope, the only 25 and under player who was on an All-NBA Team last year, #77 on your scorecards, #5 in the current Western Conference playoff seedings, Luka Doncic... on track for 5.4 Win Shares this year... so never mind about that.
We see our first peak in 1989 when Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, and Karl Malone were #1 #2 and #5 in Win Shares at exactly 25 years old... which of course is why the graph falls off so sharply immediately after, bottoming out in the mid 90s with the likes of Vin Baker and Gheorghe Muresan as top five 25 and unders, which in turn forecasted the NBA going into such a lull after the 90s golden age when it didn't after the 80s golden age.
And the same works in the other direction, with a surge of young greatness that peaked in 2010 when Lebron James, Kevin Durant, and Dwight Howard were #1 #2 and #3 in Win Shares as 25 and unders, preceding as night the day the golden age of the 10s.
Then we started falling back through the Steph Currys and James Hardens and Giannis Antetokounmpos, who hold up the top end reasonably well but there's also a lot of Kemba Walker and Andre Drummond involved, and now we've got left as the top guy... Jarrett Allen? With a crisp projected 12.3 Win Shares???
There is a great- well, a very good- well, an adequate white hope, the only 25 and under player who was on an All-NBA Team last year, #77 on your scorecards, #5 in the current Western Conference playoff seedings, Luka Doncic... on track for 5.4 Win Shares this year... so never mind about that.
