Post by eric on Nov 27, 2021 18:21:55 GMT -5
Kobe.
.
www.basketball-reference.com has play by play data going back to 1997. These are the ten players with the most All-Defensive Team awards who played their entire career in that span except Kevin Garnett who started one year earlier, but then we'd have nine and we have ten fingers so my human hands are tied. But I untied them long enough to tally the Defensive Ratings (points allowed per hundred possessions) and minutes for each of on and off court for each season of each player's career, which allows us to calculate a career on and off DRtg. To show why minutes matter, let's consider a toy example of two players who play two seasons each.
In each case the player actually has 0 on/off, and you know why (2000*95+1000*100)/(2000+1000) = (1000*100+2000*95)/(1000+2000) because addition is commutative, right! Player 1 is on a team that gives up 96.7 whether they're on court or not, player 2 is on a team that likewise gives up 98.3 irregardless of their participation.
.
Here are the ten aforementioned players by how much better they made their team's defenses over the course of their career, along with their total All-Defensive Team awards.
Not only is Kobe Bryant the most provably overrated defender in NBA history, he wasn't even an above average defender. And it's not even because he was on such great defensive teams! Over the course of his career the NBA average was 105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. When he sat his teams gave up 104.8, which is to say slightly better than average. When he played, he made them very slightly worse than average at 105.6.
"Aha," you may cry, "but Kobe played for a hundred years and was only All-Defensive in a dozen, he was probably great in those!" Unfortunately in Kobe's case (as in most) the voters show absolutely no ability to pick the better defensive years; on average Kobe made his teams one point worse on defense whether he was awarded All-Defensive or not.
"O.K. but the methodology is flawed - if for example the Lakers were great defensively in 2014 when he played only 177 minutes, he could be heavily penalized when their performance overwhelmingly had nothing to do with him at all!" That could be! But when we minute weight his defensive on/off from each season it actually says he made his teams TWO points worse on defense for his career.
.
Now, it is notable that perimeter players in this era had a much tougher time generating defensive on/off than bigs: every one of the top four is a big, every one of the bottom six played on the perimeter. This could be due to the exceptional defenders per se just happening to be big men recently, or due to the rules of the modern era, or due to the simple rules of physics - there is only one ball, and there is also only one hoop, and guys who tend to stand around near that therefore have an outsize impact. Since All-Defensive teams have to have two guards, one of those little guys who run around had to get the award... but this falls flat since Tony Bruce and Chris alone all overlapped with Kobe's career for many years. Disirregardlessly, even if it would have been someone else if not for him,
Kobe Bryant is the most provably overrated defender in NBA history.
.
www.basketball-reference.com has play by play data going back to 1997. These are the ten players with the most All-Defensive Team awards who played their entire career in that span except Kevin Garnett who started one year earlier, but then we'd have nine and we have ten fingers so my human hands are tied. But I untied them long enough to tally the Defensive Ratings (points allowed per hundred possessions) and minutes for each of on and off court for each season of each player's career, which allows us to calculate a career on and off DRtg. To show why minutes matter, let's consider a toy example of two players who play two seasons each.
MP DRtg
On Off On Off Player Season
2000 1000 95 100 1 1
1000 2000 100 95 1 2
1000 2000 95 100 2 1
2000 1000 100 95 2 2In each case the player actually has 0 on/off, and you know why (2000*95+1000*100)/(2000+1000) = (1000*100+2000*95)/(1000+2000) because addition is commutative, right! Player 1 is on a team that gives up 96.7 whether they're on court or not, player 2 is on a team that likewise gives up 98.3 irregardless of their participation.
.
Here are the ten aforementioned players by how much better they made their team's defenses over the course of their career, along with their total All-Defensive Team awards.
all-d o/o name
6 6 Ben Wallace
12 5 Kevin Garnett
6 4 Draymond Green
15 4 Tim Duncan
6 4 Tony Allen
8 3 Bruce Bowen
6 2 LeBron James
7 2 Kawhi Leonard
9 1 Chris Paul
12 -1 Kobe BryantNot only is Kobe Bryant the most provably overrated defender in NBA history, he wasn't even an above average defender. And it's not even because he was on such great defensive teams! Over the course of his career the NBA average was 105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. When he sat his teams gave up 104.8, which is to say slightly better than average. When he played, he made them very slightly worse than average at 105.6.
"Aha," you may cry, "but Kobe played for a hundred years and was only All-Defensive in a dozen, he was probably great in those!" Unfortunately in Kobe's case (as in most) the voters show absolutely no ability to pick the better defensive years; on average Kobe made his teams one point worse on defense whether he was awarded All-Defensive or not.
"O.K. but the methodology is flawed - if for example the Lakers were great defensively in 2014 when he played only 177 minutes, he could be heavily penalized when their performance overwhelmingly had nothing to do with him at all!" That could be! But when we minute weight his defensive on/off from each season it actually says he made his teams TWO points worse on defense for his career.
.
Now, it is notable that perimeter players in this era had a much tougher time generating defensive on/off than bigs: every one of the top four is a big, every one of the bottom six played on the perimeter. This could be due to the exceptional defenders per se just happening to be big men recently, or due to the rules of the modern era, or due to the simple rules of physics - there is only one ball, and there is also only one hoop, and guys who tend to stand around near that therefore have an outsize impact. Since All-Defensive teams have to have two guards, one of those little guys who run around had to get the award... but this falls flat since Tony Bruce and Chris alone all overlapped with Kobe's career for many years. Disirregardlessly, even if it would have been someone else if not for him,
Kobe Bryant is the most provably overrated defender in NBA history.