Rookie Ladder - 3014 (267 views)

[delap]

PreSeason - Initial Standings

Ahhhhh do you smell it? The fresh hope of a new season and a bevy of new rookies to scrutinize. At first glance this class has a bevy of intriguing players/builds that seem pretty unique. I would wager that we do NOT see a wire-to-wire winner... because I'm not overly sold on a particular player right now and upgrades and larger sample will surely make a difference.

There are a few close calls and a few total mysteries (Kristaps!) that ended up in the Honorable Mentions... mostly because I just want to mention them/note that they look intriguing. Clearly if they don't show more promise soon they'll be dropped from that secondary designation. Others, like Winslow, are just waiting for the slightest slip-up ahead of them to leap into a ladder position.

1a. Karl-Anthony Towns - Carolina Cougars

1b. Myles Turner - Anaheim Amigos

Destined to be joined at the hip, these two both had PreSeasons that show at least some fault in their stars. KAT got the dreaded -20 (allegedly), but currently appears to be the better player. He is far and away the best rebounder in the class, is efficient (3rd in P/TSA), and has great defensive stats.  However, his scoring volume is just not that high.  Turner scored in bunches and was at least around league-average in efficiency. His defensive stats were just as good as KAT. His big flaw is clearly on the boards, where 8.8/36 just won't cut it in the big leagues.

3a. Montrezl Harrell - Texas Chaparrals

3b. Jahlil Okafor - Pittsburgh Pipers

Cut from the same cloth... maybe the exact same build? Harrell and Okafor are archetypes we've seen before, with high-scoring, strong efficiency... but sub-par rebounding and little-to-no-defense. You can absolutely win with these guys, but they need a stronger D/R post-mate and the right mix around them. Trez is 5th in P/TSA, Jahlil is 2nd. Trez gets the leg-up on Jahlil though because he is ever-so-slightly ahead in rebounding and clearly ahead in defense.

5a. Cameron Payne - Seattle SuperSonics

5b. Delon Wright - Texas Chaparrals

5c. D'Angelo Russell - Anaheim Amigos

5d. Andrew Harrison - Toronto Raptors

A bevy of PGs land mid-ladder right now. Payne and Wright get the tiniest of edges because of their care of the ball, coupled with much stronger rebounding than D'Lo. Payne and Harrison look to be the most willing scorers of the group. Harrison is the least efficient though, so he falls to the back of the pack, despite his strong rebounding output for a PG.  All 4 look to have starting chops in the league, though, which is a pleasant surprise.

9. Pat Connaughton - Seattle SuperSonics

4th in P/TSA, strong volume, and no real flaws, Project Patrick looks like a 2nd round steal for Tim. His rebounding is weak, but not ghastly. He looks to be a great player in an outside offense immediately.

10. Treveon Graham - Utah Jazz

In tradition, I will award a ladder spot to someone who showed out in PreSeason that I don't think will hold on... and that's Graham. But, he could prove me wrong. 1st in P/TSA, incredible rebounding from the SG position, and virtually no TOs... Graham looks great!... until you look at his scoring volume and realize that he just really doesn't like the whole "shooting the ball" thing.

Honorable Mentions:

Points:

T.J. McConnell - Washington Bullets

Tyler Harvey - Texas Chaparrals

Jerian Grant - Atlanta Hawks

Wings:

Justise Winslow - Portland Trail Blazers

Sir'Dominic Porter - Atlanta Hawks

Josh Richardson - Philadelphia 76ers

Aaron Harrison - Toronto Raptors

Bigs:

Nikola Milutinov - Toronto Raptors

Satnam Singh - Texas Chaparrals

Willie Cauley-Stein - Atlanta Hawks

Trey Lyles - Charlotte Bobcats

Dakari Johnson - Anaheim Amigos

Youssou Ndoye - Vancouver Grizzlies

Kristaps Porzingis - New York Knicks

[delap]

Day 50 Update
I wanted to give the class a little extra room to grow before an update this season... and I was also busy all weekend so you know, no update. Here it is, you animals. There are a couple of small sample all-stars that I want to see more of before moving them to the big show (they will all be in HM), like Hernangomez and Sibert. Don't be mad at me, just play your guy more if you want that sweet endorphin kick of seeing them on the ladder.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns - Carolina Cougars (previous: 1a)
His efficiency is above league average... but this class is filled with players playing well above league-average, so he is in the mid-teens in the cohort. However, he leads the group in rebounding by a wide margin (and the gap between 2 and 3 is even larger), he's scoring at good volume (even in an outside offense and not as a scoring option), and he's pretty clearly the best defender of the bunch. Unless the rebound gap closes or the TO gap widens, I think his lead over Turner is pretty secure. That said, I really like the guys at 3/4 right now, so this isn't a lock to finish the season on top.



2. Myles Turner - Anaheim Amigos (previous: 1b)
More efficient and better at taking care of the ball than Towns, Turner trails in nearly every other relevant category. He's a solid 2nd best defender of the group (pending Porzingis ever getting more burn) and that means something because defense is pretty severely lacking in the big men in this class (meaning the rest of them are garbage). He needs natural growth in the rebounding area to really shine.



3. Justise Winslow - Portland Trail Blazers (previous: HM)
A versatile defensive wing (averaging over 1/2 block per 36), Winslow has the coding to play high minutes already. He's an efficient scorer and + rebounder for his position, too. He's a low TO player. Maxed out on uppies, but had A potential to start, Winslow could continue to blossom in years to come.



4. Norman Powell - New York Knicks (previous: NR)
Hidden from us during the PreSeason, Ank has unleashed Powell in the regular season with an astounding +55 in upgrades (thanks to mentoring, upgrades, camps, and magic... I'm not really sure how he got so many). He has a solid steal rate, he's efficient, but his rebounding is merely average. Despite that, he's a great looking prospect who is benefitting from a prodigious juicing regimen in Manhattan.



5. Aaron White - Pittsburgh Pipers (previous: NR)
Another ladder debutante, White is clearly outplaying his more heralded classmate. 2nd in rebounding, a strong defender, and a good scorer, too. His pedigree may not the same as some others, but he was at least B pot at the time of the draft, so maybe he will continue to be the real star of the Pipers class.



6. Arturas Gudaitis - Washington Bullets (previous: NR)
We're streaking through the formerly unranked! A solid scoring wing, currently 7th in P/TSA, Gudaitis isn't bringing much else to the table, but if he can continue to shoot at this clip, he's a valuable piece going forward. His towering frame should lead to more blocks/rebounds in theory... but that hasn't translated so far.



7. Andrew Harrison - Toronto Raptors (previous: HM)
Easily outplaying his higher-drafted twin, Andrew has risen to the top of the PG crop for the class. He is a strong rebounder (over 5/36), is good with the ball, scores at a decent clip, and is 5th in the class in P/TSA on a higher volume than anyone ahead of him. His defensive chops need to improve, though, for him to be considered elite.



8. Jahlil Okafor - Pittsburgh Pipers (previous: 3b)
So basically I don't know what to do with this type of big. They clearly matter, but the lack of defense really makes them a liability in many situations. Okafor is the strongest offensive big in the class, 6th in P/TSA overall, and he rebounds at least at league average for a big... but his defensive counting stats are pretty miserable.



9a. Trey Lyles - Charlotte Bobcats (previous: HM)
9b. Montrezl Harrell - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 3b)
Very similar outputs thus far, but Lyles still has upgrades to receive and gets the boost over Trez. Montrezl is basically Myles Turner without the defensive chops or the upside. He can score, he is efficient, but he doesn't rebound and defense is middling. Lyles' defense is even worse, but he's a solid rebounder and more efficient than Harrell. Neither of them have TO issues, though, which is a nice bonus.




Honorable Mentions

Points:
Cameron Payne - Seattle SuperSonics
D'Angelo Russell - Anaheim Amigos

Wings:
Jordan Sibert - Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker - Los Angeles Lakers
Pat Connaughton - Seattle SuperSonics
Stanley Johnson - San Antonio Spurs
Josh Richardson - Philadelphia 76ers

Bigs:
Willy Hernangomez - Milwaukee Bucks
Dakari Johnson - Anaheim Amigos
Christian Wood - Los Angeles Clippers

[Fason]

How did KAT fall to 1.2?

[delap]

Day 90 Update
Shake up in the 2-6 range! KAT's lead is tenuous... but no one is really stepping up to take it from him. If nothing else, this is easily the most efficient offensive class we've seen in 6.0. There are lots of other flaws (lack of rebounding, defense, and scoring volume is an issue), but the efficiency is off the charts compared to previous cohorts.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns - Carolina Cougars (previous: 1)
He's slightly above league-average P/TSA, which places him well down the list in this group. However, there are a grand total of 3 decent rebounding bigs in the class and he is clearly ahead of the other 2 in that regard. He's also clearly the best defensive player of the bunch, leading the group in blocks/36 and stocks/36.



2. Aaron White - Pittsburgh Pipers (previous: 5)
In terms of raw performance, White is having a stronger rookie season than anyone outside of KAT. His pedigree isn't what some other players may have, but he at least had shown B pot. 2nd in rebounding, 2nd in defensive stats, and scoring as much as anyone (tied for 3rd with KAT in points/36), he's putting together quite the surprise rookie campaign. Not sure this spot will hold, but I wanted to give him his kudos for now.



3. Myles Turner - Anaheim Amigos (previous: 2)
Myles continues to be very efficient, average on D, and strong enough as a scorer/ball handler to merit a Top 3 spot on the ladder. His rebounding remains poor, but looks slightly better than it did earlier in the season. I think he ultimately remains as one of the two players who could end up on top if KAT stumbles at all down the stretch.



4. Norman Powell - New York Knicks (previous: 4)
Shooters shoot and Norm is a shooter. He doesn't have any other elite skills, but his rebounding, steal-rate, and TO-rate are all very acceptable, especially for a rookie. That said, he's had +55 pumped into him to get him here and his natural growth isn't likely to do him many favors in the future, so he's effectively capped as a great, but not elite player.



5. Justise Winslow - Portland Trail Blazers (previous: 3)
Similar output to Powell thus far, but with elite rebounding instead of elite shooting. Everything else is at least average or better. The difference here is that he had A shown pot... as long as he didn't get the dreaded teen bust TC, Winslow has a higher ceiling than most players in the class.



6a. Devin Booker - Los Angeles Lakers (previous: HM)
6b. Arturas Gudaitis - Washington Bullets (previous: 6)
2nd in the class in P/TSA, Booker has been deadly from everywhere on the court with .527/.947/.446 shooting splits on fairly OK volume. If he can ever get his shot attempts up (a real concern) he could be a scary dangerous scorer. He doesn't turn it over and isn't a total bust on rebounding, but his defensive stats are pretty lacking. Gudaitis is a similar player, just slightly more willing to shoot and slightly less efficient (from all spots). His overarching height seems to finally be translating to decent rebounding, but not great.




8. Jahlil Okafor - Pittsburgh Pipers (previous: 8)
The more heralded of the Pipers Loud Pipes, Okafor is still clearly the better offensive piece of the puzzle than White, but his rebounding is merely playable and his defense is yuck. That said, he's 3rd in the class in P/TSA and absolutely holds value for the franchise.



9. Andrew Harrison - Toronto Raptors (previous: 7)
He's not being asked to be a starter, but Harrison has shown the steadiest hand of the rookie crop of PGs, with low TOs (under 2/36, 1st among high profile rookie PGs), high-ish scoring (17/36, 1st among high profile rookie PGs), and very strong board skills (5.3/36, almost double most of the rest of high profile rookie PGs).



10. Montrezl Harrell - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 9b)
Trez gets the last spot over Trey Lyles because of a much larger sample size, so we can trust his output a bit more. As I said, he's a poor man's Myles Turner. He doesn't rebound, he scores efficiently and often, and plays sub-par defense for a big (whereas Turner actually competes on that end). His ceiling is effectively capped because of his deficient skills on the boards/defense, but he can survive as a 3rd big in the league because of his efficient scoring.



Honorable Mentions:

Points:
Cameron Payne - Seattle SuperSonics
D'Angelo Russell - Anaheim Amigos

Wings:
Marcus Eriksson - Milwaukee Bucks
Pat Connaughton - Seattle SuperSonics
Jordan Sibert - Phoenix Suns
Juan Pablo Vaulet - Phoenix Suns
Josh Richardson - Philadelphia 76ers

Bigs:
Trey Lyles - Charlotte Bobcats
Willy Hernangomez - Milwaukee Bucks
Satnam Singh - Texas Chaparrals
Christian Wood - Los Angeles Clippers

[Handsome Pete]

Bookie Cookie!!!

[delap]

Final Standings

My gut is still with Towns, though the top 3 are incredibly tight and I'd accept arguments in any order. This class is pretty deep and I can see a lot of rotation players here for the next 10 seasons. For clarity, I would put Powell in his own tier after that, then the Pipers guys in their own tier, then the 7-10 spots along with a few HMs as the next tier down. Congrats to 20s , TinyTimPig please give him 5k from my bank.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns - Carolina Cougars (previous: 1)
He's still the 1, largely based on defense and absolutely stellar rebounding. White has closed the gap, but the two of them are elite on the glass as rookies. I'm not as worried about his scoring output, as he's never been the focus on the offense in the Carolina system and he could quite easily add 5-8 to his per game averages if he were a focal point.



2. Justise Winslow - Portland Trail Blazers (previous: 5)
He may never been a scoring machine, but he does everything else at a fairly strong/borderline elite level as a rookie. A little bit of FT% growth and that's all he really needs. He fits any team structure, too, which is a big bonus.



3. Myles Turner - Anaheim Amigos (previous: 3)
He does everything pretty well, except rebounding, but isn't hyper-elite at anything (save maybe efficiency... we'll see how that trend continues). He's clearly in contention for the top spot, but I would've wanted to see a little more defensive juice in the counting stats to get him there. He still has growth potential, which is tantalizing.



4. Norman Powell - New York Knicks (previous: 4)
Elite shooter, average everywhere else... but not much room to grow. He could benefit from some natural steal-rate growth, but that isn't unheard of for SGs.



5a. Aaron White - Pittsburgh Pipers
5b. Jahlil Okafor - Pittsburgh Pipers
It appears that ba has really found the perfect duo to rotate with Ewing and has the inside-rotation set in Steel-town for several seasons. White is an elite rebounder, strong defender, and very capable scorer. Okafor is a possibly elite scorer (1st in the class in P/TSA) who grabs boards, but his defense is clearly lacking. The best aspect is they play really well together and both bring something to the mix in the rotation.




7. Andrew Harrison - Toronto Raptors (previous: 9)
The top PG in the class, Harrison needs to improve defensively to reach his ceiling. His scoring, rebounding, and distribution are already just fine. Luckily he can be mentored and still has +20 to grow.



8a. Devin Booker - Los Angeles Lakers (previous: 6a)
8b. Arturas Gudaitis - Washington Bullets (previous: 6b)
8c. Jordan Sibert - Phoenix Suns (previous: HM)
After a mid-season swoon, Sibert has launched back near the top of the class in shooting efficiency (4th) to get back on the ladder. His volume is still a concern, but he's a very strong rebounder from the SG position and doesn't turn it over. Booker is 3rd in the group in P/TSA and similarly has volume concerns... but he has been on the most of elite teams and there is still only one ball. I would expect that his scoring would double if he were on a lesser team. He needs to improve defensively, but he isn't a liability on the glass and is also careful with the rock. Gudaitis towers over other SGs, and is more willing than Sibert/Booker to shoot, but just isn't quite as efficient. That said, he's careful with the rock and projects well for future growth.





Honorable Mentions:

Points:
D'Angelo Russell - Anaheim Amigos
Cameron Payne - Seattle SuperSonics
Terry Rozier - Seattle SuperSonics
Delon Wright - Texas Chaparrals

Wings:
Marcus Eriksson - Milwaukee Bucks
Pat Connaughton - Seattle SuperSonics
Juan Pablo Vaulet - Phoenix Suns
Branden Dawson - Houston Rockets
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Utah Jazz
Josh Richardson - Philadelphia 76ers

Bigs:
Trey Lyles - Charlotte Bobcats
Willy Hernangomez - Milwaukee Bucks
Montrezl Harrell - Texas Chaparrals
Christian Wood - Los Angeles Clippers

[Deleted]

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[Fason]

85k

[Druce]

85k

[20s]

85k

[andrewluck]

90k

[b. A. (good 2023)]

85k

[Herby New Year!]

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