Post by Druce on Oct 5, 2021 10:49:22 GMT -5
Lonzo Ball
PG
6'6
190
20
UCLA
In a league that prizes playmaking above nearly anything else, Ball’s passing skills, full court vision, and command of the offense are impossible to oversell in the modern NBA. He was a dynamic threat in transition and had such a gravity on defenses that UCLA’s other weapons got a ton of open looks. At the beginning of the year, he often looked like he was just highlight seeking, looking for the homerun pass… but that faded later in the year as he got more comfortable with the scorers at his disposal.
According to Synergy, 35.7% of Ball’s possessions ended in an assist (with 8.7 assists per 40 minutes and a 3/1 assist/turnover ratio). He was better as a floor general in transition than he was in the half court, especially later in the year when teams learned to pressure him; his turnover rate jumps from 15% in transition to 20% in the half-court. This didn’t affect his own shot-creation though; against collegiate defenders wary of his passing skills, he was afforded a decent amount of space as a shooter to cork his unconventional shot.
While his shot is unconventional, he was able to convert at a well above average clip from all over in college (41% from 3, 72%! on 2p fga). His range extends well beyond the arc as well. Ball is able to finish through contact at the rim, using his length to his advantage. His mid-range game is a bit of an unknown given his propensity for either driving to the rack or pulling up from range, but he did struggle a bit from the line converting at a 67% clip.
The issue with Ball starts when that spacing he saw in college is shrunk by bigger NBA defenses. He’s certainly not a slow or an unathletic player, and his 6’6 frame will give him a height advantage in the league, but he won’t beat out the opposing guard in physical tools on most nights. You’d hope that a passer like Ball would be a pick-and-roll monster, but that was only 10% of his offense in college… and a whopping 93% of his shots were either at the rim or a three pointer.
Ball’s ceiling is tied to his shot transitioning. If he’s truly going to become the generational talent that utilizes those passing skills, he can’t just be a passer. Defenses will always have to stay mostly honest when Ball’s running the floor, or they’ll end up on the receiving end of a highlight reel when Ball threads the pass over them to their man. But how effectively his offense transitions depends on how the NBA learns to guard him one-on-one, how they can disrupt his shot in ways most collegiate players couldn’t… and how Ball learns how to recover from the tougher, more physical NBA defense.
Ball is an instinctual defender with ideal length for the position, but his length will only help so much with that skinny frame, so hopefully he can seriously bulk up.
As he’s a highlight-reel born into flesh, he’s got hawkish instincts just waiting to pounce for a steal.
Ball is a capable rebounder who snagged 6.8 per 40 minutes with a defensive rebounding rate (14.3%) that some small forwards as jealous of. He plays his most physical when he rushes to the rim; maybe this is because he wants to press the attack as quickly as possible, but the results were impressive.
Ball is a rare player that has useful high floor skills with the potential to become an All-TMBSL performer if his scoring develops.
