Post by Handsome Pete on Sept 20, 2021 18:22:50 GMT -5
Another year, another redraft article. This one was a lot more fun to do for me than 3009, both because this was the first draft in which I picked in the lottery in 6.0 and because the quality of this draft at the top is much stronger. There are 4 players from this draft who would merit legitimate consideration for the #1 pick in most years. After the top 4, there are a lot of guys who have shown promise at one stage or another and are either rounding into star players or looking to recapture earlier form. This was also a pretty weird draft because so many of the early picks were concentrated with only a handful of GMs.
1. Original pick: Orlando Magic - Yao Ming C 7'6'' 310 22 B, C, C+ B- C+ B, China
Redraft pick: Carlos Boozer PF 6'9'' 258 20 B+ C, C- C- B, B, Duke
The top of this draft is ridiculous. There are three players who have put together insane careers thusfar and I waffled back and forth several times before settling on Boozer at #1. Sure, he doesn't provide the shot-blocking that Yao does, but he's been one of the best scorers in the league pretty much since day 1 and by winshares per 48 he's 2nd only to Kyrie among active players. He looks very similar to Antoine Carr and if he can have that kind of career he'll be a surefire hall of famer. At the time of the draft, Skrouse had zeroed in on Yao as the first pick and I don't think anyone else would've chosen differently. Boozer had question marks with his C- defense and his rebounding looked good but not necessarily elite. Some friendly TCs have improved both, and while he struggles at times to get the minutes of a superstar caliber player, his winshare production remains strong. I think Boozer has the best case of anyone in this draft for the top spot, but a lot can change over the next few seasons.
2. Original pick: New York Knicks - Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 228 22 B- C, B- C+ B, A, UConn
Redraft pick: Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 228 22 B- C, B- C+ B, A, UConn
While I think in a vacuum I'd take Yao over Caron, I think based on Ank's team build he'd still go with Caron as the #2 overall pick. Caron took a little more time to develop than Boozer or Yao (he had A potential compared to their B potential, so that makes sense), but he showed last season that he's in the conversation for best wing in the league. Caron was a top-flight rebounder from the start, averaging over 10 boards per 36 for his career. He started out on a stacked Knicks team as more of a glue-guy, but after some big growth in TC, he took the leap last season from star player to superstar as his volume and efficiency on offense greatly improved. Unlike a lot of other scoring wings, Caron is also a stout defender, and despite higher passing attributes he's taken good care of the ball. If Ank were picking, there's a chance he'd go with another high potential wing who looks poised to dominate, but I think Caron gives a little more across the board so I'll stick with him here.
3. Original pick: Los Angeles Lakers (from Charlotte Bobcats) - Carlos Boozer PF 6'9'' 258 20 B+ C, C- C- B, B, Duke
Redraft pick: Yao Ming C 7'6'' 310 22 B, C, C+ B- C+ B, China
I won't let Yao slip too far, although another wing is nipping at his heels. We all know the story with Yao. He had a dominant rookie season leading all centers in Win Shares, produced at nearly the same level his sophomore campaign, then spent his 3rd season getting back-up minutes while the Magic awaited contraction. Yao is back in business, and while he may not match those same win share heights on the rebuilding Bulls, he's putting up a statline that resembles those first two seasons and showing he hasn't lost a step. Yao is every bit as efficient a scorer as Boozer but at a tad less volume, and he isn't quite as good at drawing free throws. His defense is still quality but it's a little surprising his shot blocking never got appreciably better over his first four seasons. His rebounding remains a strength as well. He is the most well-rounded big we've seen come into the league and any GM would be thrilled to get him with the #3 pick.
4. Original pick: Houston Rockets (from Milwaukee Bucks) - Amar'e Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 245 19 B, C, C, C, C+ A, Cypress Creek HS
Redraft pick: Dajuan Wagner SG 6'2'' 200 19 B- C, C- D+ C, A, Memphis
The top 3, while reshuffled, were nailed in this draft, but there is one more player who has forced himself into the competition for best in the draft class. The comparison between Wagner and Amar'e is interesting considering both were 100 potential teens with solid builds and some serious red flags. Wagner had good inside scoring for a SG but his 3pt shooting was almost non-existent and he sported a D+ display grade for defense. He has made use of his massive potential, going +20 inside, +19 jump shot, and +54 threes of natural TC growth. His defense will never be his calling card but even that has improved by enough that the sim coach has no choice but to feed him a full complement of minutes. Wagner's huge growth in outside scoring might be enough to jump him up to Ank's slot as a backcourt scoring mate for Kyrie, but even in an inside offense he looks like one of the best scorers in the league and could conceivably get better thanks to a potential that remains in the mid-70s. For me, Wagner is the case study for why high potential teens are worth the risk. Sometimes they may turn out like Andrew Wiggins, but when they boom they can be very good for a very long time.
5. Original pick: Portland Trail Blazers (from Phoenix Suns) - Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 230 21 B, C, C, C, B, B, Kansas
Redraft pick: Junior Harrington PG 6'4'' 180 22 C, C+ B, C, D, C, Wingate
Unfortunately for Majic in this redraft, there is a significant talent drop from the top 4 to 1.5. I never saw Gooden or Harrington's scouts, but Gooden was apparently a high-inside scoring, great rebounding big and a hidden gem to boot. Junior, on the other hand, was a non-profile PG with an aptitude for inside scoring who slipped into round 2. After 3 full seasons, Gooden remains a talented but flawed player while Junior has made the most of his TCs, and the former 2nd rounder is a newly minted max player for the SuperSonics. He's not going to be a Kyrie-level cheat code point guard, but Junior is a good scorer and great passer whose jumper and 3pt shooting have seen big growth. He was named 2nd team all-league last season, making him the most decorated of the remaining players on the board, and his win shares per 48 are among the highest in the class despite a slow start his rookie season. It remains to be seen whether he plays up to the value of his max contract, but Junior is undoubtedly one of the better players in the class.
6. Original pick: Houston Rockets (from Miami Heat) - Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 240 22 B+ C, D+ C, C+ B, Argentina
Redraft pick: Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 240 22 B+ C, D+ C, C+ B, Argentina
Another redraft pick where the player and slot still align. Scola was the second big selected by kc, and at the time was seen as a safer option than Amar'e but one with a lower ceiling. His starting build was similar to Boozer's but a little bit worse in most of the key areas, and in their careers he's been a similarly strong scorer but slightly worse in efficiency and rebounding. In particular, his free throw shooting has held him back as a player, and if he were able to convert 77% instead of 67% he'd be among the best offensive bigs in the league. Even as he is, Scola is capable of putting together all-star caliber play.
7. Original pick: Charlotte Bobcats (from Vancouver Grizzlies) - Tayshaun Prince SF 6'9'' 212 22 C+ C+ C, B- C, C, Kentucky
Redraft pick: Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B- A- C+ C- B, Duke
A lot of GMs, myself included, were disappointed to see Jay Williams's college stats and draft scout. He looked like a really shaky option for the top of the draft, as he combined bad handles with a poor jumper and low inside scoring. It looked like there were too many holes to plug to make him a capable starter. Lo and behold, he's been one of the best value picks in the draft, producing well for a Trail Blazers squad that admittedly has very little to show for it. The major red flags have turned out to be relative non-issues, and he's been a perfectly capable starting point guard. He seems like he would be a good fit for an outside offense and may be miscast to some degree in Portland's inside offense, so I don't know that Odin's Bobcats are the best landing spot for him now. Nevertheless, he's deserving of a top ten selection and I think Odin could make it work with the talent he has.
8. Original pick: Los Angeles Lakers (from Charlotte Hornets) - Dajuan Wagner SG 6'2'' 200 19 B- C, C- D+ C, A, Memphis
Redraft pick: Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 250 20 B- D, C- C, A- A, Brazil
My Lakers lose out on our original 1.3 and 1.8 in this redraft so we might as well make sure nobody takes our other top 15 selection. Nene was a polarizing player entering the league, as he had a clearly defined skillset as a rebounder but another clearly defined weakness as a scorer and free throw shooter. His upside as a defender and rebounder were very high, but it was unclear whether his offense would be so bad he would be unplayable. The results are in after 3 seasons and the answer is a resounding maybe. He's spent most of his career as a 3rd big, where he's shown he can rebound at an elite level and block some shots, and also that no matter how many times you ask him not to, he's going to chuck some bricks up. His free throw shooting has been surprisingly decent considering he started with 45 jump shot rating, and his career mark is around the same as Luis Scola's. He also provides a lot of value in taking care of the ball. This offseason he had some big growth in his defensive grade and hit the A+ rebounding mark, but he's in an unfortunate position of being buried on the depth chart so it's tough to tell how much better he may have gotten.
9. Original pick: Milwaukee Bucks (from Indiana Pacers) - Nikoloz Tskitishvili SF 7'0'' 225 19 C, B- C- C- C, A, Georgia
Redraft pick: Amar'e Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 245 19 B, C, C, C, C+ A, Cypress Creek HS
Trofie has said he took Tskitishvili for the dice roll of a 100 potential teen, so I'm sure he would've been ecstatic to land Amar'e here as well. Unfortunately for both Amar'e and Tskitishvili, that potential hasn't led to much TC growth, at least in the external-facing grades. Even still, Amar'e is miles better than Tskitishvili, providing some scoring pop as a reserve big for the Rockets as they patiently await his TC blow-up. He finally saw some natural TC growth this offseason and is up to A inside, and early returns indicate he's been more efficient as a scorer. Also promising is that Amar'e has started to block some shots. Despite averaging the fewest minutes per game of his career, he's blocking more shots than ever. If that shotblocking is not due to small sample size and he can block around 2 per game, he'll be one of the better young two-way bigs in the league. The rebounding has yet to come around which will always be a concern, but of the players in this second tier I think Amar'e still has the best chance of taking a leap into a star. It's just that his time to do so is running low and it's looking more likely that this is who he will be as a player: an average starter or above average 3rd big.
10. Original pick: Portland Trail Blazers - Matt Barnes SF 6'7'' 226 22 B- C+ C- C+ C+ B, UCLA
Redraft pick: Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 230 21 B, C, C, C, B, B, Kansas
The Blazers get another shot to take Gooden and don't pass him up here. Gooden had all the right things you would want out of a scoring big prospect. Good inside scoring, a workable jumper, and strong rebounding. He was also a gem. But the draft scout result indicated his strength was a major area of concern, and it's been a factor in limiting his output so far in his career. Despite heavy investment in uppies, Gooden likely remains on the weaker end of what we usually see for a scoring big. His rookie season, he was able to score efficiently and looked like a potential all-star, but the past two years he took a step back, which clearly impacted Majic's decision to reset during his rebuild and trade Beasley to the Grizz. His production looks better so far this season so there's still some hope, and his career arc would look a lot better if he was drafted 10th rather than 5th.
11. Original pick: Los Angeles Lakers (from Washington Bullets) - Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 250 20 B- D, C- C, A- A, Brazil
Redraft pick: Mike Dunleavy Jr. SF 6'9'' 230 22 C+ C+ C, B- C+ B, Duke
The Lakers end up with two bigs and a wing, albeit in a little different order. Dunleavy Jr. is not a flashy player and doesn't have any one skill that stands out as particularly impressive, but he also doesn't have any noticeable weaknesses. His rookie season was pretty atrocious, while his sophomore season was his best season as a scorer and he showed flashes of scoring ability. Since then, he's regressed back to average on the offensive end. On the defensive side, he's a good defender and capable rebounder as well. His height means he's position locked at SF, but he's a quality wing who doesn't hurt you anywhere.
12. Original pick: Portland Trail Blazers (from Chicago Stags) - Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B- A- C+ C- B, Duke
Redraft pick: Matt Barnes SF 6'7'' 226 22 B- C+ C- C+ C+ B, UCLA
ANOTHER Blazers do-over (picks 3-13 of this draft were made by just 5 teams), Matt Barnes drops from 10 to 12. Barnes got a lot of love his rookie season, with Fason ranking him #2 in the class behind only Yao and Reggie Evans. Like Gooden he never took the next step as a scorer and his efficiency took a hit. He's got chops a rebounder and his jumper looks like it's gotten a little better since his rookie season, so he's another guy who may be able to resurrect his career with a bounceback season. He's got more positional flexibility than Dunleavy Jr but 2+ turnovers per game are something you can only live with if the guy is strong most everywhere else, and Barnes has not been that through his first three years. He's a bit like Jimmy Butler, in that he'll probably fetch a max but the GM who signs it might regret it in a couple seasons.
13. Original pick: Milwaukee Bucks (from Philadelphia 76ers ) - Mike Dunleavy Jr. SF 6'9'' 230 22 C+ C+ C, B- C+ B, Duke
Redraft pick: Tayshaun Prince SF 6'9'' 212 22 C+ C+ C, B- C, C, Kentucky
From one position-locked SF to another, the Bucks end up with a very similar prospect to Dunleavy, although one with a wildly different career trajectory. Odin took an unconventional strategy with Prince, opting to punt on his offense to pump all of his uppies into rebounding to make him a legitimate D/R wing. BK was asking the other day what team has ever had success with a player like that, and somehow I forgot about Tayshaun, who started all season for the 3011 champion Bobcats and averaged 8.2 boards and 0.8 blocks per game while only scoring 5.8 points per game. Prince is a great fit for the Bobs because they've got plenty of other high-volume scorers to carry the load and he can chip in around the fringes without spoiling many possessions. It's clearly a good fit because the Bobcats ranked in the top 5 in points per true shot attempt last season and sit at #2 for 3013. Would that build be as successful for Trofie's Bucks if we assume they still make moves to end up with Martell, Malone and Oakley next season? Definitely maybe.
14. Original pick: Charlotte Hornets (from Cleveland Cavaliers) - Qyntel Woods SF 6'8'' 221 21 C+ C, C- C, C, A, Northeast Mississippi CC
Redraft pick: John Salmons SG 6'7'' 210 22 C, C, B, C, C+ C, Miami
Qyntel Woods was a homerun swing from Fecta, who may have been hoping for a little bit of nostalgia bump since Woods was a 5.0 HOFer. Instead, Qyntel is just another in a long line of bad wings for the Hornets. Rather than swing and miss on upside, I've given them the perpetually-snubbed-for-6MOY-and-or-glue-guy John Salmons, who was a low upside prospect that has shown a little more growth than expected. Salmons was a strong rebounding guard who could move the ball, and despite his original gradeset looking kind of weak, he wasn't far from the cap for inside scoring or jumper as a prospect. He spent a couple seasons starting at SF for my team until Nique pushed him into a bench role, but he's proven more than capable as a backup SG and SF who can do a little scoring, take care of the ball, and hold his own on the glass. Salmons's winshares are helped by being part of a strong team but he's been an integral depth piece who would instantly be the Hornets's best wing.
15. Original pick: Utah Jazz - Rod Grizzard SF 6'8'' 205 22 B- C, C- C, C, B, Alabama
Redraft pick: Jason Jennings C 7'0'' 250 23 B, C- C- C+ C+ B, Arkansas State
I'll be honest, I had no idea who Jason Jennings was when the Jazz took him ahead of Chris Webber in the contraction waivers. But after looking at his output for the robo-Magic last season, I can see why Fason was high on him. He blocks a good deal of shots and rebounds the ball well, and his offensive efficiency is around average for a big. He's gotten some good growth over his first four seasons and looks like at the very least he'll be a good back-up big. His minutes per game numbers are a bit puzzling because cosmetically he doesn't look like the kind of player who would struggle to get minutes from the sim coach, so maybe he is as weaksauce as Drew Gooden. Either way, he would've made for a better pick than Rod Grizzard, whom the Jazz cut loose after 3 seasons.
3010 Re-Draft
1. Original pick: Orlando Magic - Yao Ming C 7'6'' 310 22 B, C, C+ B- C+ B, China
Redraft pick: Carlos Boozer PF 6'9'' 258 20 B+ C, C- C- B, B, Duke
The top of this draft is ridiculous. There are three players who have put together insane careers thusfar and I waffled back and forth several times before settling on Boozer at #1. Sure, he doesn't provide the shot-blocking that Yao does, but he's been one of the best scorers in the league pretty much since day 1 and by winshares per 48 he's 2nd only to Kyrie among active players. He looks very similar to Antoine Carr and if he can have that kind of career he'll be a surefire hall of famer. At the time of the draft, Skrouse had zeroed in on Yao as the first pick and I don't think anyone else would've chosen differently. Boozer had question marks with his C- defense and his rebounding looked good but not necessarily elite. Some friendly TCs have improved both, and while he struggles at times to get the minutes of a superstar caliber player, his winshare production remains strong. I think Boozer has the best case of anyone in this draft for the top spot, but a lot can change over the next few seasons.
2. Original pick: New York Knicks - Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 228 22 B- C, B- C+ B, A, UConn
Redraft pick: Caron Butler SF 6'7'' 228 22 B- C, B- C+ B, A, UConn
While I think in a vacuum I'd take Yao over Caron, I think based on Ank's team build he'd still go with Caron as the #2 overall pick. Caron took a little more time to develop than Boozer or Yao (he had A potential compared to their B potential, so that makes sense), but he showed last season that he's in the conversation for best wing in the league. Caron was a top-flight rebounder from the start, averaging over 10 boards per 36 for his career. He started out on a stacked Knicks team as more of a glue-guy, but after some big growth in TC, he took the leap last season from star player to superstar as his volume and efficiency on offense greatly improved. Unlike a lot of other scoring wings, Caron is also a stout defender, and despite higher passing attributes he's taken good care of the ball. If Ank were picking, there's a chance he'd go with another high potential wing who looks poised to dominate, but I think Caron gives a little more across the board so I'll stick with him here.
3. Original pick: Los Angeles Lakers (from Charlotte Bobcats) - Carlos Boozer PF 6'9'' 258 20 B+ C, C- C- B, B, Duke
Redraft pick: Yao Ming C 7'6'' 310 22 B, C, C+ B- C+ B, China
I won't let Yao slip too far, although another wing is nipping at his heels. We all know the story with Yao. He had a dominant rookie season leading all centers in Win Shares, produced at nearly the same level his sophomore campaign, then spent his 3rd season getting back-up minutes while the Magic awaited contraction. Yao is back in business, and while he may not match those same win share heights on the rebuilding Bulls, he's putting up a statline that resembles those first two seasons and showing he hasn't lost a step. Yao is every bit as efficient a scorer as Boozer but at a tad less volume, and he isn't quite as good at drawing free throws. His defense is still quality but it's a little surprising his shot blocking never got appreciably better over his first four seasons. His rebounding remains a strength as well. He is the most well-rounded big we've seen come into the league and any GM would be thrilled to get him with the #3 pick.
4. Original pick: Houston Rockets (from Milwaukee Bucks) - Amar'e Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 245 19 B, C, C, C, C+ A, Cypress Creek HS
Redraft pick: Dajuan Wagner SG 6'2'' 200 19 B- C, C- D+ C, A, Memphis
The top 3, while reshuffled, were nailed in this draft, but there is one more player who has forced himself into the competition for best in the draft class. The comparison between Wagner and Amar'e is interesting considering both were 100 potential teens with solid builds and some serious red flags. Wagner had good inside scoring for a SG but his 3pt shooting was almost non-existent and he sported a D+ display grade for defense. He has made use of his massive potential, going +20 inside, +19 jump shot, and +54 threes of natural TC growth. His defense will never be his calling card but even that has improved by enough that the sim coach has no choice but to feed him a full complement of minutes. Wagner's huge growth in outside scoring might be enough to jump him up to Ank's slot as a backcourt scoring mate for Kyrie, but even in an inside offense he looks like one of the best scorers in the league and could conceivably get better thanks to a potential that remains in the mid-70s. For me, Wagner is the case study for why high potential teens are worth the risk. Sometimes they may turn out like Andrew Wiggins, but when they boom they can be very good for a very long time.
5. Original pick: Portland Trail Blazers (from Phoenix Suns) - Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 230 21 B, C, C, C, B, B, Kansas
Redraft pick: Junior Harrington PG 6'4'' 180 22 C, C+ B, C, D, C, Wingate
Unfortunately for Majic in this redraft, there is a significant talent drop from the top 4 to 1.5. I never saw Gooden or Harrington's scouts, but Gooden was apparently a high-inside scoring, great rebounding big and a hidden gem to boot. Junior, on the other hand, was a non-profile PG with an aptitude for inside scoring who slipped into round 2. After 3 full seasons, Gooden remains a talented but flawed player while Junior has made the most of his TCs, and the former 2nd rounder is a newly minted max player for the SuperSonics. He's not going to be a Kyrie-level cheat code point guard, but Junior is a good scorer and great passer whose jumper and 3pt shooting have seen big growth. He was named 2nd team all-league last season, making him the most decorated of the remaining players on the board, and his win shares per 48 are among the highest in the class despite a slow start his rookie season. It remains to be seen whether he plays up to the value of his max contract, but Junior is undoubtedly one of the better players in the class.
6. Original pick: Houston Rockets (from Miami Heat) - Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 240 22 B+ C, D+ C, C+ B, Argentina
Redraft pick: Luis Scola PF 6'9'' 240 22 B+ C, D+ C, C+ B, Argentina
Another redraft pick where the player and slot still align. Scola was the second big selected by kc, and at the time was seen as a safer option than Amar'e but one with a lower ceiling. His starting build was similar to Boozer's but a little bit worse in most of the key areas, and in their careers he's been a similarly strong scorer but slightly worse in efficiency and rebounding. In particular, his free throw shooting has held him back as a player, and if he were able to convert 77% instead of 67% he'd be among the best offensive bigs in the league. Even as he is, Scola is capable of putting together all-star caliber play.
7. Original pick: Charlotte Bobcats (from Vancouver Grizzlies) - Tayshaun Prince SF 6'9'' 212 22 C+ C+ C, B- C, C, Kentucky
Redraft pick: Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B- A- C+ C- B, Duke
A lot of GMs, myself included, were disappointed to see Jay Williams's college stats and draft scout. He looked like a really shaky option for the top of the draft, as he combined bad handles with a poor jumper and low inside scoring. It looked like there were too many holes to plug to make him a capable starter. Lo and behold, he's been one of the best value picks in the draft, producing well for a Trail Blazers squad that admittedly has very little to show for it. The major red flags have turned out to be relative non-issues, and he's been a perfectly capable starting point guard. He seems like he would be a good fit for an outside offense and may be miscast to some degree in Portland's inside offense, so I don't know that Odin's Bobcats are the best landing spot for him now. Nevertheless, he's deserving of a top ten selection and I think Odin could make it work with the talent he has.
8. Original pick: Los Angeles Lakers (from Charlotte Hornets) - Dajuan Wagner SG 6'2'' 200 19 B- C, C- D+ C, A, Memphis
Redraft pick: Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 250 20 B- D, C- C, A- A, Brazil
My Lakers lose out on our original 1.3 and 1.8 in this redraft so we might as well make sure nobody takes our other top 15 selection. Nene was a polarizing player entering the league, as he had a clearly defined skillset as a rebounder but another clearly defined weakness as a scorer and free throw shooter. His upside as a defender and rebounder were very high, but it was unclear whether his offense would be so bad he would be unplayable. The results are in after 3 seasons and the answer is a resounding maybe. He's spent most of his career as a 3rd big, where he's shown he can rebound at an elite level and block some shots, and also that no matter how many times you ask him not to, he's going to chuck some bricks up. His free throw shooting has been surprisingly decent considering he started with 45 jump shot rating, and his career mark is around the same as Luis Scola's. He also provides a lot of value in taking care of the ball. This offseason he had some big growth in his defensive grade and hit the A+ rebounding mark, but he's in an unfortunate position of being buried on the depth chart so it's tough to tell how much better he may have gotten.
9. Original pick: Milwaukee Bucks (from Indiana Pacers) - Nikoloz Tskitishvili SF 7'0'' 225 19 C, B- C- C- C, A, Georgia
Redraft pick: Amar'e Stoudemire PF 6'10'' 245 19 B, C, C, C, C+ A, Cypress Creek HS
Trofie has said he took Tskitishvili for the dice roll of a 100 potential teen, so I'm sure he would've been ecstatic to land Amar'e here as well. Unfortunately for both Amar'e and Tskitishvili, that potential hasn't led to much TC growth, at least in the external-facing grades. Even still, Amar'e is miles better than Tskitishvili, providing some scoring pop as a reserve big for the Rockets as they patiently await his TC blow-up. He finally saw some natural TC growth this offseason and is up to A inside, and early returns indicate he's been more efficient as a scorer. Also promising is that Amar'e has started to block some shots. Despite averaging the fewest minutes per game of his career, he's blocking more shots than ever. If that shotblocking is not due to small sample size and he can block around 2 per game, he'll be one of the better young two-way bigs in the league. The rebounding has yet to come around which will always be a concern, but of the players in this second tier I think Amar'e still has the best chance of taking a leap into a star. It's just that his time to do so is running low and it's looking more likely that this is who he will be as a player: an average starter or above average 3rd big.
10. Original pick: Portland Trail Blazers - Matt Barnes SF 6'7'' 226 22 B- C+ C- C+ C+ B, UCLA
Redraft pick: Drew Gooden PF 6'10'' 230 21 B, C, C, C, B, B, Kansas
The Blazers get another shot to take Gooden and don't pass him up here. Gooden had all the right things you would want out of a scoring big prospect. Good inside scoring, a workable jumper, and strong rebounding. He was also a gem. But the draft scout result indicated his strength was a major area of concern, and it's been a factor in limiting his output so far in his career. Despite heavy investment in uppies, Gooden likely remains on the weaker end of what we usually see for a scoring big. His rookie season, he was able to score efficiently and looked like a potential all-star, but the past two years he took a step back, which clearly impacted Majic's decision to reset during his rebuild and trade Beasley to the Grizz. His production looks better so far this season so there's still some hope, and his career arc would look a lot better if he was drafted 10th rather than 5th.
11. Original pick: Los Angeles Lakers (from Washington Bullets) - Nene Hilario C 6'11'' 250 20 B- D, C- C, A- A, Brazil
Redraft pick: Mike Dunleavy Jr. SF 6'9'' 230 22 C+ C+ C, B- C+ B, Duke
The Lakers end up with two bigs and a wing, albeit in a little different order. Dunleavy Jr. is not a flashy player and doesn't have any one skill that stands out as particularly impressive, but he also doesn't have any noticeable weaknesses. His rookie season was pretty atrocious, while his sophomore season was his best season as a scorer and he showed flashes of scoring ability. Since then, he's regressed back to average on the offensive end. On the defensive side, he's a good defender and capable rebounder as well. His height means he's position locked at SF, but he's a quality wing who doesn't hurt you anywhere.
12. Original pick: Portland Trail Blazers (from Chicago Stags) - Jay Williams PG 6'2'' 195 21 C+ B- A- C+ C- B, Duke
Redraft pick: Matt Barnes SF 6'7'' 226 22 B- C+ C- C+ C+ B, UCLA
ANOTHER Blazers do-over (picks 3-13 of this draft were made by just 5 teams), Matt Barnes drops from 10 to 12. Barnes got a lot of love his rookie season, with Fason ranking him #2 in the class behind only Yao and Reggie Evans. Like Gooden he never took the next step as a scorer and his efficiency took a hit. He's got chops a rebounder and his jumper looks like it's gotten a little better since his rookie season, so he's another guy who may be able to resurrect his career with a bounceback season. He's got more positional flexibility than Dunleavy Jr but 2+ turnovers per game are something you can only live with if the guy is strong most everywhere else, and Barnes has not been that through his first three years. He's a bit like Jimmy Butler, in that he'll probably fetch a max but the GM who signs it might regret it in a couple seasons.
13. Original pick: Milwaukee Bucks (from Philadelphia 76ers ) - Mike Dunleavy Jr. SF 6'9'' 230 22 C+ C+ C, B- C+ B, Duke
Redraft pick: Tayshaun Prince SF 6'9'' 212 22 C+ C+ C, B- C, C, Kentucky
From one position-locked SF to another, the Bucks end up with a very similar prospect to Dunleavy, although one with a wildly different career trajectory. Odin took an unconventional strategy with Prince, opting to punt on his offense to pump all of his uppies into rebounding to make him a legitimate D/R wing. BK was asking the other day what team has ever had success with a player like that, and somehow I forgot about Tayshaun, who started all season for the 3011 champion Bobcats and averaged 8.2 boards and 0.8 blocks per game while only scoring 5.8 points per game. Prince is a great fit for the Bobs because they've got plenty of other high-volume scorers to carry the load and he can chip in around the fringes without spoiling many possessions. It's clearly a good fit because the Bobcats ranked in the top 5 in points per true shot attempt last season and sit at #2 for 3013. Would that build be as successful for Trofie's Bucks if we assume they still make moves to end up with Martell, Malone and Oakley next season? Definitely maybe.
14. Original pick: Charlotte Hornets (from Cleveland Cavaliers) - Qyntel Woods SF 6'8'' 221 21 C+ C, C- C, C, A, Northeast Mississippi CC
Redraft pick: John Salmons SG 6'7'' 210 22 C, C, B, C, C+ C, Miami
Qyntel Woods was a homerun swing from Fecta, who may have been hoping for a little bit of nostalgia bump since Woods was a 5.0 HOFer. Instead, Qyntel is just another in a long line of bad wings for the Hornets. Rather than swing and miss on upside, I've given them the perpetually-snubbed-for-6MOY-and-or-glue-guy John Salmons, who was a low upside prospect that has shown a little more growth than expected. Salmons was a strong rebounding guard who could move the ball, and despite his original gradeset looking kind of weak, he wasn't far from the cap for inside scoring or jumper as a prospect. He spent a couple seasons starting at SF for my team until Nique pushed him into a bench role, but he's proven more than capable as a backup SG and SF who can do a little scoring, take care of the ball, and hold his own on the glass. Salmons's winshares are helped by being part of a strong team but he's been an integral depth piece who would instantly be the Hornets's best wing.
15. Original pick: Utah Jazz - Rod Grizzard SF 6'8'' 205 22 B- C, C- C, C, B, Alabama
Redraft pick: Jason Jennings C 7'0'' 250 23 B, C- C- C+ C+ B, Arkansas State
I'll be honest, I had no idea who Jason Jennings was when the Jazz took him ahead of Chris Webber in the contraction waivers. But after looking at his output for the robo-Magic last season, I can see why Fason was high on him. He blocks a good deal of shots and rebounds the ball well, and his offensive efficiency is around average for a big. He's gotten some good growth over his first four seasons and looks like at the very least he'll be a good back-up big. His minutes per game numbers are a bit puzzling because cosmetically he doesn't look like the kind of player who would struggle to get minutes from the sim coach, so maybe he is as weaksauce as Drew Gooden. Either way, he would've made for a better pick than Rod Grizzard, whom the Jazz cut loose after 3 seasons.
