Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2021 11:31:50 GMT -5
Hey guys,
Kilbins are back and better than ever. To start us out I'll post up the Kilbins for last season!
Here are the individual Kilbin rankings for the 3012season:
Figure 1) For new viewers be aware that Kilbins are related to WS/48 but not exactly derived from it. There are adjustments for injuries, trades, and depth.
As you can see the Lakers, Knicks, and Pacers were the best team last season, agreeing with fractionals. This is nice to see because the win totals for the Knicks, Cougars and Hawks are all similar but the winshare totals for their players are not. You'll always lose a few "unlucky" games and the Lakers, Knicks and Pacers all had more than 5 "unlucky" losses leading to a depreciated win total relative to their skill.
Meanwhile, the algorithm identifies the Spurs as being INCREDIBLY lucky this season, which rings true when you look at their roster. Meanwhile, the Jazz, Raptors, and Blazers win the award for "most similar" team structure.
The Grizzlies are not in the top tier of teams according to fractionals or Kilbins, and the chart shows us why, their players simply don't have as many winshares as the other teams. I don't think anyone is confusing the Grizzlies for the best team last year. However, it seems fairly obvious now as we move into year 14 of 6.0 that any team with Kilbins over .05 has a pretty good shot at winning a ring. I, and some other GMs, have been building their teams with this concept and it has tended to work out for multiple GMs so far in 6.0. Meanwhile, teams that try to go "all-in" on a small window to be "the best team" don't see much success because of the random nature of the playoffs. It's better to have a decent shot 10 times in a row than the "best" shot 2-3 times, because the best team usually doesn't win.
Moving on we will now look at wins vs total player winshares taken from columns 2 and 3 in Figure 1.
Figure 2) This is always a fun plot to include, summarizing the results from the above table.
Teams to the right of the line were "unlucky", teams to the left of the line were "lucky". However, these deviations are overall very very small, as Team Total Player Winshares accounts for 89% of Total Team Wins. This is good to note, because while merely summing up the contributions of your player's winshares won't always predict regular season success, if you want to get a certain number of wins you won't ever be too far off from your winshare total. You can see the Magic were one of the "unlucky" teams, because their Kilbin number was propped up by having high quality player's on their roster, but their win total fell short due to not getting them the minutes they deserved.
The last few figures will be each team's individual player winshares and re-sign values. These are less useful in review, but still interesting to see. Note re-sign values that are negative are still accurate, it just means that player's re-sign would never be adjusted.
Note: The images that are longer vertically seems to be shrunk for some reason. You can click on each image to see it at full resolution.
Note: The images that are longer vertically seems to be shrunk for some reason. You can click on each image to see it at full resolution.
