Post by eric on Aug 10, 2021 17:46:17 GMT -5
I took the pre sim 1 save from last season and ran it three times with injuries off, and found the average standard deviation in ORtg of .8, which since literally nothing about the underlying league changed between the three runs tells us how big the noise is in a single season.
Then I took the top four offenses to test how they did with different focuses. Then since three of those were outside instead of that I took the top outside offense (Knicks) the top inside (Hawks) and the top balanced (Trail_Blazers). Here's how they did running one season of each other focus:
On average, outside was 1% better than average and inside was 1% worse. These deviations are (slightly) bigger than noise.
Now, one obvious issue is that none of the top offenses ran balanced - the Blazers were an aggregate #13(!) and they were the BEST option. I don't think this is why they're flipped o/b, I think that's more likely to be noise, but I'd still prefer to have their baseline be a littler closer. But what can you do?
Then I took the top four offenses to test how they did with different focuses. Then since three of those were outside instead of that I took the top outside offense (Knicks) the top inside (Hawks) and the top balanced (Trail_Blazers). Here's how they did running one season of each other focus:
knicks hawks blazers focus
136.3 136.4 127.0 o
135.2 135.3 127.7 b
134.6 134.2 124.2 iOn average, outside was 1% better than average and inside was 1% worse. These deviations are (slightly) bigger than noise.
Now, one obvious issue is that none of the top offenses ran balanced - the Blazers were an aggregate #13(!) and they were the BEST option. I don't think this is why they're flipped o/b, I think that's more likely to be noise, but I'd still prefer to have their baseline be a littler closer. But what can you do?
