Post by TinyTimPig on Jun 17, 2021 12:22:04 GMT -5
Teams in the best shape for the future
1. New York Knicks - Losing Kemp for nothing really hurts, but it’s hard to argue with a tandem of Kyrie and Embiid for the foreseeable future, as well as whoever they’ll add with 1.2 in 3010 (Amare?). They also have some sneaky talented and young supporting players to accompany their superstars in guys like Gminski, Chandler, Stoudamire, and Fazekas. After the 1.2 next year, they’ll have to wait a few more seasons but then they come up on a nice spot in the wheel where they have 1.8 and 1.5 back to back. Kyrie, Embiid, and their 1.2 will all still be very young at that point, so adding additional talent with those picks won’t be difficult.
2. Los Angeles Lakers - The crown jewel of Pete’s assets is 1.1 in 3012, and while it’s not a great draft for depth, it has Dominique Wilkins and James Worthy at the top who seem like the clear first two picks. Aside from that, 1.3 in 3010 and 1.2 in 3013 should both yield some very solid players, and then the Lakers also have a 1.8 and two 1.11s to add to the mix for good measure. Wes Matthews is still pretty young, so whether he stays in Los Angeles or gets dealt for another pick, he should be an asset for a team who has the means to be a contender in 4-5 seasons.
3. Orlando Magic - Between Michael Beasley and Yao Ming, the Magic should be able to feature a talented inside scoring roster. Those two ought to shoot and shoot often, so Skrouse can spend the rest of his time combing free agency and other rosters to try and find the supplementary defensive and rebounding pieces to accompany those two. I’d normally feel less strongly about a team that only has one really solid upcoming draft asset, but that Yao profile is very enticing.
4. Pittsburgh Pipers - It feels a little bit crazy to list the Pipers this high, but flipping Webster for a 1.1 and 1.3 could pay huge dividends for the franchise. After signing Shawn Kemp Jr. this offseason from a division rival, it probably makes the most sense to trade him and stack assets around the Patrick Ewing/Karl Malone 1.1. Aside from those assets, he has 1.3 in 3012, 1.10 in 3013, and 1.3 in 3014. Tons of opportunities for the boys from Pipetown to build a really strong roster around a couple of potential superstars.
5. Chicago Stags - I guess this is an homage to the dearly departed, but in case Troy has second thoughts or a replacement GM rolls around, the frac champion Stags are in pretty great shape for the near future, with their biggest contributors - Joe Barry Carroll, Serge Ibaka, Rodney McCray, Darrell Griffith, and Isaiah Rider - all still relatively young. Staten at point guard is declining and will need to be replaced, but the Stags have the depth and three top 13 picks to do that.
Teams in the worst shape for the future
1. Charlotte Hornets - The Hornets finished 33-49 last year while trading two decent picks for a declining Lloyd Sharrar and Luther Head, who is good but not 1.8-level good IMO. They have one pick in the top half of the first round for the next five years, and that comes in 3011. I like that class a lot, so there may be some hope, but I’m not sure the guy you’re getting at 1.5 will get you very far unless you’re seeing massive improvement from Rose, Baker, and Williams.
2. Toronto Raptors - Luther Wright has played three seasons - one was pretty darn good and the other two left a lot to be desired. Adam Haluska is a good shooting guard who is on the trade block, but the asking price doesn’t seem to be reasonable to most. I believe the Cougars had been trying to move him for a top-15ish pick and had trouble doing so until the Raptors offered a 1.10, so the likelihood of Delap getting a 1.10 back seems low. I haven’t seen enough from the Morris twins to give me hope for their future, and they only have two top ten draft picks in the next five years. One is a 1.3 in this draft (which I’m not a fan of) after Dump knocked Delap down a spot, and the other is 1.9 in 3013 which may end up yielding a better player.
3. Dallas Mavericks - There isn’t much on the Mavs’ roster as it currently stands, and based on the inability to move any of his pieces for a couple of seasons now, I’m not sure Soup will be getting much of a return for anyone. That means he has a 1.1 to look forward to, but that’s not until 3013. It’s a promising 1.1 to have, but lots of pieces will need to be added in the years before and after to get this team back to contention.
4. Charlotte Bobcats - I liked the Nurkic pick this past draft, but the Lavine and Parker picks were headscratchers, though I’ll admit I saw neither build. I like Darwin Cook as a solid but unspectacular point guard, but the rest of the roster seems lacking. Their best upcoming pick is 1.4 in 3010, which is right on the edge of being able to grab someone who will make an impact based on my initial read of the profiles. Odin is always making moves though, so I could see him flipping all three of his draft picks and that 1.4 for more established players.
5. San Antonio Spurs - Kawhi looks very good, but that’s about all I see on the current roster. They have a couple of top 10 picks coming up with a 1.8 in 3011, which I expect to produce a better talent than their 1.5 in 3012 (more on upcoming draft classes later). Pointy has started asking a few more questions about the league lately, so I’m hoping his interest is returning after the Kawhi selection. The key will be holding on to him and landing a decent free agent before those other two picks roll around.
Division Rankings
1. Central - These rankings could certainly change depending on how re-alignment shakes out, but as of today, the Central is the only division I see with four legitimate contenders (assuming the 76ers don’t sell everything) - the 76ers, Nets, Pacers, and Knicks. Most of them have made decent playoff runs recently, but the Knicks missed out on a big piece with Kemp departing for division-rival Pittsburgh. Seeing Kemp leave for nothing when he could’ve been swapped for a top-10 pick is rough, even with Embiid getting added to the mix. None of these teams may end up with the best record in the league, but that’ll be because they had to survive their own bloodbath of a division.
2. Midwest - The Midwest features a few championship contenders, but with TroyBarnes’ unfortunate departure, it’ll likely be a competition between the Bucks and T-Wolves. The Chaparrals are likely to take a step back with Papaloukas and Breshers getting older and Jokic needing time to develop, and the Mavs are more focused on their 1.1 in a few years. It remains to be seen what the plans are in Houston and San Antonio.
3. Pacific - The only reason the Pacific ranks above the Atlantic is because it features last season’s champion. Past that, there are a few teams that should hover around .500, though I admittedly have no idea what the Clippers might look like tomorrow.
4. Atlantic - The Magic have been the team to beat in the Atlantic, though I must admit that I’m not entirely sure how they’ve had as much success as they have. They did start building around the same time the Bobcats, Bullets, and Hawks started to tank, and the Cougars have taken a step back as Maye and Kiki haven’t been able to keep the Carolina machine running by themselves since Sharrar began declining.
Intrigue of Upcoming Draft Classes
1. 3011 - I’m most excited for the 3011 draft because it features some elite talent with five IRL Hall of Famers - Patrick Ewing, Chris Mullin, Karl Malone, Joe Dumars, and Arvydas Sabonis, all of whom feature promising profiles. There’s also excellent depth All-Star/All-NBA talents in Xavier McDaniel, Detlef Schrempf, Charles Oakley, A.C. Green, Terry Porter, and Michael Adams. Double-digit “star” players, and that’s not even including guys like Benoit Benjamin and Wayman Tisdale.
2. 3013 - I don’t envy JHB’s job of picking some 15 guys to write profiles for out of such a large pool, especially since scouting reports were virtually non-existent. Some names that come to mind immediately - George Mikan, Dolph Schayes, Frank Selvy, Bob Pettit, Harry Gallatin - provide enough name recognition to give the class excitement. With the lack of scouting reports, I’m interested to see if a little bit more liberty is taken with draft profile writing and player builds.
3. 3010 - The excitement falls off quite a bit for me here, but the 3010 class at least has some very intriguing top talent in Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemire, who were iconic 5.0 players. I’m not sure we’ll see the Qyntel Woods’ and Jay Williams’ of the class make the same impact, but there’s plenty of interesting depth after Yao and Amare.
4. 3012 - This class supplied three good players from what I can remember in 5.0 - Dominique Wilkins, James Worthy, and Terry Cummings. After that, most of these guys were out of the league in a few seasons. Even Worthy was more of a glue guy - solid all-around but not excellent at anything. I’d really hate to have a pick outside of the top couple in this draft.
5. 3009 - Even the biggest names in the upcoming draft - Gary Payton, Derrick Coleman - don’t appeal to me much. I’m sure some talent will come out of this class, but without even a clear cut 1.1, it’s tough to get really excited about the class as a whole. There are probably only about 10 or so profile players who I recognize, though some of our more senior GMs may see more in this class than I do.
3009 Top Potential Free Agents
1. Chris Webber - The former 1.1 in this expiring rookie class, Webber had some bumps his first season, but it looks like he’s capitalized on (what I believe was) 90 potential and is now an efficient scorer, decent rebounder, and excellent defender without turnover problems. A surefire max, he’s one of few players who, in my opinion, doesn’t really have any weaknesses.
2. Anfernee Hardaway - 1.2 from the same class, some thought Mashburn should’ve gone over Penny. AndrewLuck took a risk and drafted a player who would eventually become a Playoffs MVP. He’s an excellent scorer and rebounder for the point guard position, and I’m definitely taking positional scarcity into account in these rankings. TOs are perhaps a tad high, but that feels like I’m nitpicking a bit.
3. Nick Van Exel - As I look closer at Van Exel’s stats, I could see people ranking him above Hardaway. Fewer turnovers and similar defense to Penny, but he’s a worse rebounder (which I like a lot in point guards) and I’m not entirely sold on his scoring, which has ticked up just a bit every year and was very good in 3007. Repeating what he did last season could move him into the second spot in this list.
4. Jamal Mashburn - Mashburn is a very good wing who scores and rebounds well, but doesn’t play much defense and has decent turnovers relative to his usage. I rank him a bit lower than others because his skills are a little bit easier to find than a two-way big or an elite point guard. He’s above Wrenn due to his age, but the two seem pretty similar overall.
5. Doug Wrenn - Wrenn is one of few non-rookie contract guys who will be intriguing in this class, and he may end up being the most interesting bidding war as the guys coming off of rookie contracts are easy max offers. For Wrenn, people will be forced to get more creative with their bids. Wrenn scores and rebounds well, even if his defense and turnovers are a bit lacking. His ability to play small forward or shooting guard means he’d be a fit on any team.
