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Post by delap on Jun 2, 2021 7:09:14 GMT -5
PreSeason Update
The much ballyhooed class has arrived... and for the first time in forever, I don't feel there is a clear #1. Kyrie looks great, but not transcendent... and we may finally have a sim Kawhi that lives up to the hype. I also see big potential in Vucci Mane and Jimmy Butler, who strangely is defensively deficient? I do, though, see a pretty deep class of rotation players, so upgrades and PT against the best of the best will likely shake this up a bit going forward. The HM list will be long to include all the guys worthy of note (read: Raptors rookies) at this time. There aren't any hyper-efficient players in the group yet, but a strong number are in the 1.05-1.10 range.
1. Kawhi Leonard - San Antonio Spurs 4th in scoring, Top 10 in efficiency, 3rd in steals... all while posting over 9 boards/36 from a wing position and blocking almost a shot per 36... Kawhi looks fantastic and doesn't have any major holes. His TO rate isn't perfect, but it's 100% playable and is low enough that you can focus upgrades on other areas first. Not factored into this ranking, but should be considered as well... he's a no-3 wing, so his re-signs have the potential to be lower than MAX (formula dependent)... so that's nice.
2. Kyrie Irving - New York Knickerbockers The #1 overall pick was a solid playmaker in the PreSeason, but there has to be some concern that he may not score at enough volume to become the elite elite Kyrie that existed in 4.0 and 5.0. 5th in efficiency, a super-low TO rate, and decent steals all look good. His rebounding is ghastly though, 2nd lowest among all qualifying rookies in the PreSeason.
3. Nikola Vucevic - Vancouver Grizzlies Take away the TOs or increase the block rate and he'd be in discussion for #1 in the class right now... do both and he'd be a pretty easy choice. However, they are both suspect, so he lands at the 3 hole for now. Efficiency is fair, but volume and rebounding prowess are top notch. 1st in overall scoring and 1st in rebounding is hard to compete with. Druce has some choices to make with his upgrades, so it should be interesting to see how he progresses after a big TC.
4. Jimmy Butler - Vancouver Grizzlies Leads all rookies in P/TSA and is scoring at a higher clip than Kyrie, Butler looks pretty great. However, his defensive counting stats are worrying. It's hard to average less than a steal as a wing per 36 in the software, and he's doing it. Only Enes Kanter and Jan Vesely are lower than him in that metric in this cohort. Some of it may be noise, but that's a weird weakness. His rebounding is average, not elite like Kawhi. But! His TO rate is low and it doesn't look like his mpg will be hampered by his coach. Solid, but flawed, player.
5. Jordan Williams - Miami Heat A relatively low minutes player in the PreSeason, I want to see more of Williams going forward. His per36 numbers are quite good, averaging 20/10 while blocking nearly 1.5 shots and not turning it over. He's 7th in efficiency and doesn't do anything poorly. He may not have the ceiling, but he certainly appears to be a capable rotation player out of the box.
6. Nicola Mirotic - Seattle SuperSonics Very similar output to Williams, Mirotic is just slightly worse in all categories, but the sample is much bigger so I feel more confident in projecting his production going forward. I was pleasantly surprised by his defensive output, averaging more than a block and steal per 36. His rebounding is a glaring problem, though.
7. MarShon Brooks - Milwaukee Bucks Solid, mostly efficient wing scorer who doesn't turn the ball over a ton, Brooks looks capable of being an immediate impact bench player for one of the top teams this season. His rebounding is average, and defensive stats slightly below average... but again, his lack of TOs really washes that out.
8. Ater Majok - Carolina Cougars Occupying this year's "Manute Bol Memorial Ladder Rung for D/R Bigs who are really elite at the D and not really so good at the R" is Mr. Majok. 6th in efficiency, great! Only 8 pts per 36, not great! Easily the best blocker and blealer in the class, great! One of the worst rebounding bigs in the class, not great!
9. Tristan Thompson - Indiana Pacers A solid, but not elite, defensive big, Thompson rebounds very well compared to the rest of the class. His scoring is high enough that you can have hope for improvement in volume/efficiency in the future with upgrades (that don't need to be used on rebounding or blocking, necessarily). TOs are not elite, but not horrible either.
10. Tobias Harris - Vancouver Grizzlies Doing a "MarShon" lite impersonation in the PreSeason, Tobi was still strong enough to merit inclusion over the rest of the class in the HMs because of a super low TO rate and no major major holes in his game. It will be interesting to watch this Grizzlies trio as Druce has options in their upgrade array and could end up hitting on all 3 picks in succession, a strong feat.
Honorable Mentions:
Points: Shelvin Mack - Milwaukee Bucks Nolan Smith - Seattle SuperSonics Brad Wanamaker - Houston Rockets Kemba Walker - Orlando Magic
Wings: E'Twaun Moore - Los Angeles Lakers Travis Leslie - Portland Trail Blazers Iman Shumpert - Charlotte Bobcats Zoran Dragic - Indiana Pacers Marcus Morris - Toronto Raptors
Bigs: Greg Smith - Charlotte Hornets Lavoy Allen - Charlotte Bobcats Davis Bertans - Atlanta Hawks Jonas Valanciunas - Houston Rockets Derrick Williams - Charlotte Hornets Vernon Macklin - San Antonio Spurs Markieff Morris - Toronto Raptors Enes Kanter - Los Angeles Lakers
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Post by Dirt on Jun 2, 2021 7:35:39 GMT -5
Having Ater but not Jonas...weird
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Post by 20s on Jun 2, 2021 7:50:31 GMT -5
Having Ater but not Jonas...weird Ater is a boss |
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Post by delap on Jun 2, 2021 7:54:26 GMT -5
Having Ater but not Jonas...weird Jonas' TO rate is major bad. With even average TOs he'd be solidly on board.
Jonas and Lavoy Allen were 11/12 in my quick and dirty rankings.
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Post by eric on Jun 2, 2021 8:20:38 GMT -5
if you've got time i'd be interested to see how you feel the class stacked up using college stats as opposed to preseason
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2021 8:26:28 GMT -5
if you've got time i'd be interested to see how you feel the class stacked up using college stats as opposed to preseason Could you publish college stat and preseason winshares? I could do WS/48 college stats vs WS/48 preseason stats chart would be cool |
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Post by delap on Jun 2, 2021 8:38:13 GMT -5
if you've got time i'd be interested to see how you feel the class stacked up using college stats as opposed to preseason
Eyeballing it for about 3-4 minutes...
Using stats ONLY (not accounting for profiles/grades... or scouts (because I didn't see a single one of this class)) and not computing p36 exactly:
1. Vucevic 2. Kyrie 3. Butler
4. Jonas 5. Jordan Williams 6. Kawhi 7. Matok 8. Kemba 9. Tristan 10. Willie Reed
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Post by eric on Jun 2, 2021 10:38:57 GMT -5
if you've got time i'd be interested to see how you feel the class stacked up using college stats as opposed to preseason Could you publish college stat and preseason winshares? I could do WS/48 college stats vs WS/48 preseason stats chart would be cool sounds like a good article and since you've got the macro now too.......  |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2021 10:41:29 GMT -5
Could you publish college stat and preseason winshares? I could do WS/48 college stats vs WS/48 preseason stats chart would be cool sounds like a good article and since you've got the macro now too.......
Without the team information i can't do the winshares for college right?
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Post by eric on Jun 2, 2021 13:53:26 GMT -5
sounds like a good article and since you've got the macro now too....... Without the team information i can't do the winshares for college right?
the spreadsheet pulls the team information from the box scores |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2021 13:59:56 GMT -5
Without the team information i can't do the winshares for college right?
the spreadsheet pulls the team information from the box scores
awesome i didnt realize college stats came with box scores. super cool
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Post by delap on Jun 8, 2021 8:08:50 GMT -5
Day 60 UpdateSorry all, got off-track for (slightly) more important things happening in life. I'll update now and then again for Day 90, then end of Regular Season. Major, major shifting here... and some really odd players that I don't know what to do with (Klay anyone?). Lots of spots up for grabs. 1. Nikola Vucevic - Vancouver Grizzlies (previous: 3)2nd in P/TSA, 2nd in scoring, 3rd in rebounding, and careful enough with the rock... the same concerns from PreSeason linger though (low blocks, not great TO-rate)... so his spot at the top is pretty rocky.  2. Kyrie Irving - New York Knicks (previous: 2)Already a Top 3 PG in the league, Sim Kyrie doesn't take time off for personal days. He doesn't rebound or steal a ton, but everything else is exemplary. If either of those tick up, or he closes the efficiency gap on Vuc, #1 could be his pretty easily. Still has upgrades to go.  3. Jonas Valanciunas - Houston Rockets (previous: HM)Look, I don't like it either. Those TOs are ghastly. But! There isn't, in my mind, a clear answer as to the #3 in this class with a pretty big drop-off from Kawhi's production and not quite enough from the next 4 or so guys on the list. Jonas leads all rookies in scoring (bad team helps, yes) and is a strong defender, is plenty efficient, and rebounds well. The TOs are really his only weakness... but they are a MAJOR problem. He still has a +10 hanging out there and a camp, so maybe he can get an ounce of handling upgrades?  4. Kawhi Leonard - San Antonio Spurs (previous: 1)His efficiency has tanked since the PreSeason down to league-average-ish... and his steal-rate still isn't what you want... but he is absolutely killing it on the boards. I don't recall ever seeing a wing go over 10 boards per 36, but that is where Leonard is at right now. He still has a +30 hanging out there, Pointy-willing, so I may be underselling his future.  5. Donatas Motiejunas - Chicago Stags (previous: NR)After a lackluster PreSeason, Motiejunas joins his countryman Jonas in rocketing up the ranks. His rebounding is woefully low for a big, but he scores very efficiently, with so-so volume, and is a defensive asset who doesn't turn it over.  6a. MarShon Brooks - Milwaukee Bucks (previous: 7)
6b. E'Twaun Moore - Los Angeles Lakers (previous: HM)The cream of the non-Kawhi wing crop right now, Brooks/Moore slot ahead of Butler/Tobi by virtue of their much higher efficiency. We don't have a plethora of efficient wings who actually shoot enough to matter in the league, yet Brooks and More looks like two of the few that will meet that standard going forward. Neither rebounds as well as you would like, but neither of them ever turn it over, either.   8. Derrick Williams - Charlotte Hornets (previous: HM)High volume, high efficiency... and that's about it. He rebounds poorly, plays just a bit of defense, and turns it over far too often... but he scores! Could be the bad-team effect, but the efficiency is there. He's capped on upgrades, too... so what you see is probably what you'll get.  9. Ater Majok - Carolina Cougars (previous: 8)Still easily the best defender in the class, Majok is basically doubling up the closest competitor in stocks/bleals (Motiejunas/Jordan Williams).  10. Tristan Thompson - Indiana Pacers (previous: 9)Barely edging out Bertans for the last spot this update, Thompson needs more minutes, but he is showing out in his scant time. He rebounds well, is efficient, and at least plays some marginal amount of defense. He should watch-out, though, as there are 5-6 players in the HMs that could easily knock him down by Day 90.  Honorable Mentions:
Points:
Kemba Walker - Orlando Magic
Nolan Smith - Seattle SuperSonics
Brad Wanamaker - Houston Rockets
Wings:
Klay Thompson - Charlotte Hornets
Andrew Goudelock - Minnesota Timberwolves
Tanguy Ngombo - Phoenix Suns
Zoran Dragic - Indiana Pacers
Jimmy Butler - Vancouver Grizzlies
Tobias Harris - Vancouver Grizzlies
Kyle Singler - Seattle SuperSonics
Iman Shumpert - Charlotte Bobcats
Bigs:
Davis Bertans - Atlanta Hawks
Nikola Mirotic - Seattle SuperSonics
Lavoy Allen - Charlotte Bobcats
Jordan Williams - Miami Heat
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Post by Ankly on Jun 8, 2021 8:10:29 GMT -5
lmao at Vucevic over Irving
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Post by skrouse on Jun 8, 2021 8:12:54 GMT -5
lmao at Vucevic over Irving
I think position scarcity really should play a huge factor here
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Handsome Pete
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Post by Handsome Pete on Jun 8, 2021 8:14:25 GMT -5
I think it's hard to judge efficiency of PGs versus bigs because they're not apples to apples. 1.17 Pts/TSA for a PG >>>> 1.21 Pts/TSA for a big
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jhb
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Post by jhb on Jun 8, 2021 8:16:36 GMT -5
"I don't recall a wing over 10 boards per 36"
*ignores Estes, McCray, Lynch, and Webster all over 10 boards per 36 at the moment*
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Post by delap on Jun 8, 2021 8:17:33 GMT -5
Maybe I just hate Ank and resent 5.0 Kyrie for taking less money (substantially) and years to leave me. Maybe.
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Post by delap on Jun 8, 2021 8:18:34 GMT -5
"I don't recall a wing over 10 boards per 36" *ignores Estes, McCray, Lynch, and Webster all over 10 boards per 36 at the moment*
Sorry... as a rookie.
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Post by Ankly on Jun 8, 2021 8:20:00 GMT -5
*Irving spearheads a top 3 offense in sim league history*
"His steal rate needs to tick up" - Delap
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Post by Druce on Jun 8, 2021 8:20:47 GMT -5
i would reluctantly trade vuc for kyrie
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Post by 20s on Jun 8, 2021 8:20:59 GMT -5
Also Vucevic’s lack of blocks is a way bigger issue than Kyrie’s lack of blocks.
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Post by delap on Jun 8, 2021 8:22:05 GMT -5
*Irving spearheads a top 3 offense in sim league history* "His steal rate needs to tick up" - Delap
I'm gonna print this out and show it to Shawn Kemp Jr.
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bankz
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Post by bankz on Jun 8, 2021 8:30:40 GMT -5
Pointy added the +30 to Kawhi… fwiw
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IanBoyd
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Post by IanBoyd on Jun 8, 2021 8:36:46 GMT -5
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Post by delap on Jun 8, 2021 9:12:02 GMT -5
Pointy added the +30 to Kawhi… fwiw
foiled by improvements history again... my old nemesis
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Post by delap on Jun 15, 2021 6:42:25 GMT -5
End of Regular Season - Final StandingsSorry for the crappy ladder this season, punish me accordingly in your votes. Congratulations to Ankly for shepherding the Rookie Ladder winner. Please give him 1k from my bank, skrouse The rightful champ has ascended. Nik Vuc is also very very good. I'm sneaking in 11 in the final standings because I couldn't decide between the last two guys... because I'm both a homer and a jhb-lover. Sue me. Finally, I love this class for what is adding to the wing depth of the league. There are some seriously good wings in the HM section that should help ameliorate some of the imbalance in styles and could lead to a greater variety of team-building. 1. Kyrie Irving - New York Knicks (previous: 2)The only bad thing you can say is that he doesn't rebound. Everything else is pretty exemplary.  2. Nikola Vucevic - Vancouver Grizzlies (previous: 1)A fantastic scoring big, hyper-efficient. If he can increase his mpg in the future he could be in solid competition for the scoring title in a couple years.  3. Kawhi Leonard - San Antonio Spurs (previous: 4)BoardMan gets 3rd. Looks fantastic as a future wing stud that could fit on any team, in any offense. As an added bonus, he's unlikely to ask for MAX money.  4. Jonas Valanciunas - Houston Rockets (previous: 3)I can't in good conscience reward his TO-laden play with a Top 3 finish... but outside of that big black mark on his record, he looks to be great as the cornerstone of what they are building in Houston.  5. E'Twaun Moore - Los Angeles Lakers (previous: 6b)The best scoring wing the class, Moore also provides a healthy number of steals and doesn't turn it over. Rebounding is a tad weak, but not unplayable.  6. MarShon Brooks - Milwaukee Bucks (previous: 6a)An efficient wing who is willing to take enough shots for it to matter (unlike, say, Jimmer or Klay). His rebounding is palatable and he is also cautious with the rock.  7. Donatas Motiejunas - Chicago Stags (previous: 5)The newest Celtic is everything you want in a young big... except he doesn't rebound. Hopefully Coach Red Auerdump can get him some core and base strength training to fix that going forward.  8. Derrick Williams - Charlotte Hornets (previous: 8)A lot like Jonas V... but just worse at everything. Needs to really up his defensive and/or rebounding game or he'll be like so many other one-tool bigs in the league.  9. Ater Majok - Carolina Cougars (previous: 9)You know what you are getting with him, boards and blocks. Nothing fancy.  10a. Markieff Morris - Toronto Raptors (previous: HM)
10b. Davis Bertans - Atlanta Hawks (previous: HM)Finally playing enough minutes to warrant inclusion, Markieff has been the stronger Morris twin and has put up a very efficient, low-TO 20/10 per36 on the season. With a nearly identical stat-line, Bertans looks promising in the ATL, though surprisingly has not hit a 3 all season. Sometimes art doesn't imitate life.   Honorable Mentions:
Points:
Kemba Walker - Orlando Magic
Diante Garrett - Atlanta Hawks
Brad Wanamaker - Houston Rockets
Wings:
Jimmer Fredette - New York Knicks
Jordan Hamilton - Cleveland Cavaliers
Tobias Harris - Vancouver Grizzlies
Kyle Singler - Seattle SuperSonics
Tanguy Ngombo - Phoenix Suns
Marcus Morris - Toronto Raptors
Jimmy Butler - Vancouver Grizzlies
Zoran Dragic - Indiana Pacers
Iman Shumpert - Charlotte Bobcats
Bigs:
Nikola Mirotic - Seattle SuperSonics
Tristan Thompson - Indiana Pacers
Lavoy Allen - Charlotte Bobcats
Kenneth Faried - Portland Trail Blazers
Jordan Williams - Miami Heat
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Post by 20s on Jun 15, 2021 6:47:17 GMT -5
69k
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jhb
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Post by jhb on Jun 15, 2021 7:07:52 GMT -5
50k
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Post by skrouse on Jun 15, 2021 7:09:17 GMT -5
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Handsome Pete
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Post by Handsome Pete on Jun 15, 2021 8:16:38 GMT -5
70k
E'Twaun looks to be a real quality SG. He and Wes should be fun bombing it from 3 until we're ready to compete again
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