Post by bankz on May 24, 2021 21:22:09 GMT -5
Welcome everyone to the 3007 TMBSL Free Agency Preview article. Below you will find my take on the best of the best possible free agents. I've decided to put them in tiers. Below this intro you will see how I breakdown the tiers and as you read the individual breakdowns you will see my prediction on what I can see happening in free agency. It feels like forever since we had a deep class with movement. Recent seasons have resulted in mass re-signings and not much left for those with tons of cap space. Obviously that will push up the value on some of these guys. At the bottom of the article I ranked the best of the rest at each individual position. Just in case we get slim pickings and the market forces us to dig deep on targets. Finally special shoutout to 20s for hooking me up with the sweet photo shop above. skrouse please deposit 1K from my bank into his for services rendered.
Tier 1: Elite Players at the position, Max them without hesitation
Tier 2: Great Players at the position, Deal could be in the 10m per to full max range
Tier 3: Good Players at the position, Deals could be in the 5-10m per year range
Tier 4: Average Players at the position, MLE's
Tier 5: Roster Filler, LLE's Point Guards
Tier 2:
Mike Conley PG 23 6'1'' 185 B- B- B+ C D- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
35.8 14.9 2.7 9.7 1.2 0.2 2.1 0.504 0.929 0.333 1.146 15.7 0.158
Mike is right on the cusp of elite for his position. A career .158 win share per 48 has him close to the Staten's of the world. He's a efficient point but his scoring volume is what keeps him from being a sure fire max player. Prediction: Full Max
Tier 3:
Kelvin Ransey PG 26 6'1'' 170 C B A- C+ C- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
25.7 10.8 4.6 11 1.5 0.1 3.2 0.45 0.817 0.394 1.093 13.6 0.147
Kelvin is a solid point that you want running your team for those with an inside offense. His turnovers are a smidge high but he's been a productive player over his career and an above average efficiency point. Prediction: 6 years - 7.5m per
Ed Cota PG 27 6'2'' 197 C C A+ C D C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
23.1 11.2 3.8 10.2 0.7 0.2 1.5 0.45 0.661 0.289 0.98 13.2 0.157Cota is another solid but not special point. He doesn't shoot much and that's a good thing because when he does it's not pretty. Prediction: 3 years - 6m per
Aaron Brooks PG 25 6'0'' 161 C- B- A- C D+ C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
12.8 17.5 4.7 11 1.3 0.3 2.4 0.471 0.808 0.394 1.086 17.9 0.092Brooks has often found his role coming off the bench in the league. Diving deeper into the numbers it does suggest that he could be a pretty solid starter. One of the better per/36 for a point guard this season along with decent shooting efficiency puts him right around league average. The assists are good and turnovers low. He might have some scoring upside as well. Prediction: 5 years - 6m per
Shooting Guards
Tier 2:
Adam Haluska SG 26 6'5'' 210 B A- C C C C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
34.8 24.9 6.2 4.3 0.7 0.1 1.5 0.493 0.892 0.443 1.183 19.4 0.153
By my definition Adam is a tier one player. As one of the key figures to the Raptors he's shined. He's efficient and he has volume. A strong per for a shooting guard you really can't ask more of Adam. Why tier 2? Because of caps you wont get the same level of production generally from SG's as you SF's. Looking at the current win share rankings and you see the top 10 wings 9 are small forwards. Prediction: Full Max
Tier 3:
Luther Head SG 24 6'3'' 185 B B+ C- C C C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
32.5 22.3 6.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 1.8 0.498 0.847 0.339 1.144 16.8 0.14
The rate of return for Head has been outstanding for the Lakers. One of the last picks of his class he's turned into a top shooting guard. Good career win share numbers with good shooting. Again volume for a shooting guard looks good. Prediction: 6 year deal - 10m per
Arron Afflalo SG 25 6'5'' 215 B A- C- B C B
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
30.7 24.9 5.8 2.4 1.3 0.2 2.1 0.47 0.821 0.458 1.148 17.5 0.089Arron has struggled to make his mark on the league. Till this season he's been a workout warrior, teasing and tempting Tim in thinking he may finally take the steps as a top shooting guard. Traded away and back home again it looks like Afflalo may be finally living up to his potential. Question will be where you value that in the grand scheme of things. Also are we banking on him continuing to develop via tc? Those will be questions needed to be asked as bids are entered. Prediction: 6 Year - 11m per
Small Forward
Tier 1:
Wayne Estes SF 28 6'6'' 215 A- C D+ C A- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
36 24.1 11 2.5 1 0.4 2.8 0.567 0.704 0.344 1.211 19.7 0.223Despite Odin's best efforts to ruin Wayne he's come out on the other end and still looks like a fantastic player. One of the best players at his position you can look but you can't touch. Unless some crazy shit happens the Clippers hold a vast re-signing advantage even if Mr. Estes decides to test the market I don't see him ending anywhere but LA. Prediction: 7 years - 17m per
Jared Dudley SF 25 6'6'' 242 B C C C B- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
31.1 16.3 7.7 1.9 1 0.3 1.2 0.541 0.747 0.241 1.168 14.3 0.183
Dudley has taken a back seat in Brooklyn but make no mistake Jared is a max worthy wing and the league will be lining up to pay this man. Dudley career win share suggests he's worth every penny and could further blossom in a featured role. In a league starved for top tier wings this guy fits the mold. Prediction: Full Max
Tier 2:
Wilson Chandler SF 23 6'8'' 235 A- C+ C- C C+ C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
33.1 17.7 8.4 2.2 1.2 0.2 1.3 0.49 0.705 0.298 1.099 14.8 0.115Wilson Chandler is so underrated. I don't believe I every hear his name spoken about in Sim conversations and rarely see his name typed in shout. I'm here to say this man is the glue that kept the Lakers a contender recently. Low turnovers, good rebounds and solid efficiency. Can he take the next step as the main man? The jury is out on that. But I could see someone rolling the dice and giving him that shot. Prediction: Full Max
Kevin Durant SF 22 6'10'' 230 B+ B C D C D
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
31.6 21.1 7.2 2.8 1.2 0.1 2.9 0.501 0.816 0.434 1.158 15.5 0.104
As I touched on with Afflalo, Kevin Durant also has been shipped off and come back home. We have waited to see if KD would finally turn that corner and earlier in the season it seemed like it may have finally happened. At worst he's a very strong third wing. I don't think he can be a premier starter but can he hit the level of a Dudley? Fair value for KD is a deal starting around 10m per, but someone shall overpay on the hope of this development continuing on given his young age. Prediction: Full Max
Tier 3:
Mickael Gelabale SF 24 6'7'' 215 A C- C- C C C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
27.8 15 6.9 1 1.1 0.3 1.3 0.571 0.643 0 1.182 12.6 0.097Mickael is a inside scoring monster. Shootings a sweet 57% this year with good rebounding Mickael is going to be a interesting target in free agency. Low turnovers are a plus but he really doesn't give you much on defense. Still he's someone to keep an eye out and his value could skyrocket if he's one of the lone wings to hit the market. Prediction: 6 years - 10m per
Bigs
Tier 1:
Al Horford PF 24 6'10'' 265 A- C C C+ B- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
31.9 33.7 10.1 3.9 0.9 0.5 2.6 0.576 0.798 0.125 1.271 27.5 0.246
Al is about all you can ask for when it comes to a big man, franchise player in 6.0. He's my top free agent to be for 3007 and every single person with money should be punching in that full max. Elite offense, good rebounding and amazing efficiency the perfect centerpiece for any franchise. Prediction: Full Max
Marc Gasol C 25 7'0'' 275 B+ C+ B B- C B
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
33.2 25.9 9.1 5.4 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.513 0.803 0.326 1.138 23.3 0.265Gasol has a higher ws/48 than Horford and he was select 1.1 over Horford but i'm a sucker for top tier scoring and even though Gasol is good he's not on the level of Big Al. Still Gasol is every bit the cornerstone Horford is and the league should be salivating to get a bid on this amazing player. Great scoring, solid rebounding, great passing with low turnovers. Marc also brings really strong defense to the table. Prediction: Full Max
Tyreese Breshers PF 29 6'7'' 255 A- C- D C C+ B
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
29.3 26.1 9.2 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.8 0.542 0.627 0 1.144 20.3 0.212Tyreese went a smidge under the radar his first go on the free agent market. The jury was out on if he could be an elite big man, but those returns came back in the positive. Breshers led Texas to a sim title two seasons past and is now back on the market to get paid again. One of the more well rounded bigs and still in his prime at age 29. Great scoring, solid rebounding, low turnovers with strong defense. He's going to get many max offers, this deal could get ugly year 5 or 6 but the goal is to capitalize and maybe win a title during the front end of this contract before moving on. Prediction: Full Max
Tier 2:
Spencer Hawes C 22 7'2'' 245 B+ C D C B- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
26.1 25.6 10.1 1.8 1 0.2 1.6 0.528 0.821 0.4 1.182 20.6 0.183
Spencer Hawes can get you buckets and does it at a very efficient level. He's never been able to hit that elite gear in volume and ultimately its what keeps him from me saying he's a lock to be maxed. Hawes is a solid rebounder but after that there isn't a ton he brings to the table. Turnovers are not a problem but if only we could up the volume. If our market is thin and he's one of the few to hit it I think he's easily maxed. If we have a loaded market I think he could go 6 years 11m range. Prediction: Full Max
Joakim Noah C 25 6'11'' 230 A- C- C+ B A- C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
30 19.2 12.5 4.1 1.1 0.8 2.4 0.508 0.641 0 1.094 18 0.195Noah has been hyped as a top tier big man by the Brooklyn media and even though he is a very good big man, elite he is not. A very strong career .195 ws/48 shows what a well rounded big Joakim is. If assists are your thing with little defense than Noah is a max big man. His scoring isn't elite and his efficiency is league average. He does rebound at an elite level. According to BK rebounds are very important portion of the defensive equation and maybe that drives up his value in the land of maxed out bigs. Prediction: 6 years - 10m per
Greg Oden C 22 7'1'' 260 C+ C D- B- A- B
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
33.3 15.9 13.2 2.2 1.3 1.8 1.5 0.458 0.844 0 1.113 17.3 0.175Oden probably doesn't end up this high if not for his reset. The change to his built was perfect and turned this elite defender and rebounder into a efficient scorer on lower volume. Greg is someone I could 100% see people projecting more offense into the future and getting max money. He's knocking on the door as the best d/r big in the league. Prediction: Full Max
Uros Slokar C 24 6'10'' 238 A- D+ C- C+ C+ C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
26 20 9.7 1.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 0.522 0.624 0 1.086 17 0.154
After a rookie season that came out of nowhere, maybe the most impressive 2nd round pick in 6.0 history LA's public relations office went into high gear. Amazing social media content and a youtube video that went viral turned Uros into a mega star off the court. This could be something that ultimately bites the Lakers in the butt. Slokar is so beloved in sim I could see a big man who isn't very efficient this season, solid rebounder but a great defender land a max contract when in reality he's probably in the 9-11m per year range. Prediction: 6 years - 9m per year
Lloyd Sharrar C 28 6'10'' 230 B C- D- B A C
M P R A S B T FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER ws/48
29.9 17.6 13.8 1.2 1.1 2.2 1.7 0.478 0.667 0 1.046 16.9 0.226Lloyd is no stranger to the free agent, famously leaving the Bullets franchise in the wind. A blow so deep its still haunts Yawn and the anger has never passed. Lloyd has been one of the best big men this league has seen. Amazing on the defensive end. Turnovers not a problem. Great rebounding and solid scorer. This year his shooting touch hasn't been nearly as good. Is it a sign of decline at age 28? That will be the question those putting in bids will need to judge against his amazing defense and rebounding. Prediction: 6 year - 10m per
Best of the Rest
Point Guards
1) Anderson Hunt
2) Jaysean Paige
3) Devan Downey
4) Jon Davis
Shooting Guards
1) Lenny Cooke
2) Sun Yue
3) Morris Almond
4) Dimitris Diamantidis
Small Forwards
1) William Buford
2) Jason Capel
3) Louis Orr
4) Corey Brewer
Bigs
1) Chief Kickingstallionsims
2) Chris Taft
3) Fran Vazquez
4) Tiago Splitter
5) Jarvis Lang
6) Joel Anthony
7) Granville Waiters
8) Jason Smith
9) Johan Petro
10) Kurt Nimphius
11) Yi Jianlian
