State of the Sim League - Rookie Classes
Apr 21, 2021 13:18:29 GMT -5
delap, jhb, and 4 more like this
Post by eric on Apr 21, 2021 13:18:29 GMT -5
20s andrewluck Ankly b. A. (good 2023) bankz delap Dirt Druce duc15 gbgalla24 Handsome Pete Herby New Year! IanBoyd jhb @jayz93j Majic mazunga Mike Odin Chaps pointyegg Sapular skrouse Soup TinyTimPig Trofie troybarnes wardunn Yawn of the Dead
We start with the overall WS/48 of each class in their respective rookie years:
3001 - .100
3002 - .095
3003 - .093
3004 - .096
One of the big issues people have had with the wheel in the past is that not all classes are created equal, and this will always be true to some extent, but the data shows we've gone a long way in reducing that variation: our standard deviation decreased from .009 in 5.0 all the way to .003 now. We have introduced tweaks to the class building and drafting process with 6.0 that I think will help us keep the year to year discrepancies low, but I'll be honest this is dramatically less variation than I could have hoped for, and at least part of it is just plain luck so I'd expect variation to increase a little from here.
.
But there's more to classes than their creation, so let's look at how the classes have grown over time, and this time let's include the creation draft:
Players grow, players decline, players are discovered, players are deleted, players retire. Through all that the rookie classes have stayed very stable both for one compared to itself and one compared to the rest. The creation class has seen a very gradual increase which is a little surprising since they are the only class that's had to deal with retiring so far, but post-creation players are still competitive with them.
We also see this at the top end, where every post-creation class has produced at least one player on an All-NBA First Team, but only one has produced two:
3001 - harper ('03) carr ('04)
3002 - carroll ('04)
3003 - gasol ('03)
3004 - paul ('04)
As is also expected, creation players' grasp on the First Team has become more tenuous as the years have gone on - when one of the inaugural First Teamers is retired and three others are 37, it should be hard to keep up a top five level of play. With players like Gates and Dubljevic still in their prime it wouldn't be surprising to see the creation draft hold onto an All-NBA First spot or two for a few more years, but we're now past the inflection point where creation has more talent than every other rookie class combined, and I think that's about on schedule when comparing ten rounds to eight combined rounds when the ten rounds necessarily has disproportionately older players - we only rostered 43 rookies in '00 compared to 73 this past season, and post creation players haven't lost a Kurland or a Kirkland or a Kurkland(?).
.
I will continue to keep an eye both on the starting point and evolution of classes going forward, but we're in a really great spot now in terms of class balance and I'm mostly trying to keep that rolling. One of the great things about 5.0 was not just delap doing a good job making draft profiles but that he did it for all of 5.0. I'm hopeful that jhb will continue on a similar trajectory, to ensure and protect the ongoing strength of our sim league.
We start with the overall WS/48 of each class in their respective rookie years:
3001 - .100
3002 - .095
3003 - .093
3004 - .096
One of the big issues people have had with the wheel in the past is that not all classes are created equal, and this will always be true to some extent, but the data shows we've gone a long way in reducing that variation: our standard deviation decreased from .009 in 5.0 all the way to .003 now. We have introduced tweaks to the class building and drafting process with 6.0 that I think will help us keep the year to year discrepancies low, but I'll be honest this is dramatically less variation than I could have hoped for, and at least part of it is just plain luck so I'd expect variation to increase a little from here.
.
But there's more to classes than their creation, so let's look at how the classes have grown over time, and this time let's include the creation draft:
3000 - .100 .100 .104 .105 .111
3001 - .100 .094 .096 .101
3002 - .095 .100 .097
3003 - .093 .093
3004 - .096Players grow, players decline, players are discovered, players are deleted, players retire. Through all that the rookie classes have stayed very stable both for one compared to itself and one compared to the rest. The creation class has seen a very gradual increase which is a little surprising since they are the only class that's had to deal with retiring so far, but post-creation players are still competitive with them.
We also see this at the top end, where every post-creation class has produced at least one player on an All-NBA First Team, but only one has produced two:
3001 - harper ('03) carr ('04)
3002 - carroll ('04)
3003 - gasol ('03)
3004 - paul ('04)
As is also expected, creation players' grasp on the First Team has become more tenuous as the years have gone on - when one of the inaugural First Teamers is retired and three others are 37, it should be hard to keep up a top five level of play. With players like Gates and Dubljevic still in their prime it wouldn't be surprising to see the creation draft hold onto an All-NBA First spot or two for a few more years, but we're now past the inflection point where creation has more talent than every other rookie class combined, and I think that's about on schedule when comparing ten rounds to eight combined rounds when the ten rounds necessarily has disproportionately older players - we only rostered 43 rookies in '00 compared to 73 this past season, and post creation players haven't lost a Kurland or a Kirkland or a Kurkland(?).
.
I will continue to keep an eye both on the starting point and evolution of classes going forward, but we're in a really great spot now in terms of class balance and I'm mostly trying to keep that rolling. One of the great things about 5.0 was not just delap doing a good job making draft profiles but that he did it for all of 5.0. I'm hopeful that jhb will continue on a similar trajectory, to ensure and protect the ongoing strength of our sim league.