Post by bankz on Jan 9, 2021 23:05:03 GMT -5
CREATION DRAFT Q&A
Heading into the creation draft I wanted to pry the minds of some 5.0 vets. These gents skills are sharp having spent the last few years under Eric understanding how he builds players and what to look for. I figured what better way for new GMs and those who look at this creation draft and file of players with a clueless gaze. With that said the guys did the best they could without giving the goods completely away. The draft starting early also tossed a wrench into the plans. I'm looking for answer so time to hand over the mic...
Thanks for joining this Q&A and giving some insight to the upcoming creation draft. I wanted to fist ask about your thoughts on 6.0 starting off. Are you surprised to see 6.0 full?
- Odin: I'm quite excited for it to begin, although we did not cover all of the things i wanted to cover prior to the league starting, but i'm glad it's here nonetheless. and i'm glad everyone is here. full league is always better.
- Skrouse: I am surprised to see 6.0 filled to capacity with multiple GMs on the waiting list. There was a lot of pessimism in terms of GM interest at the end of 5.0, so the outlook was not looking too great. But I’m really happy to see so many familiar faces (names) and even some new ones, including a good buddy of mine ba (B. A.)
- TimPig: Extremely. I believe it was Soup who came first (recruiting you alongside him), and that really opened the floodgates for old GMs to return. I’m hopeful, but am not very confident it will last. The last iteration started with lots of new GMs who almost immediately quit (Val Venis, Sloutang), and lots of returning GMs who didn’t make it past a couple of seasons (Trofie, Shaun, Dump, MJ, RV, Taco, Pete, Duc), and then another group who didn’t make it past what became known as “The Great Contraction” around 2011 or 2012. Hopefully the guys who are returning this time have taken a long enough break that they’re energized to get back into it.
I'm very excited about 6.0 being full. As Tim mentioned a big thanks goes to Soup for opening the floodgates. I think people gravitate to Soup and when he decided to commit and he turns around to you asking to join up it's easy to say yes. Hopefully those who are GMs are active and don't ghost the majority of time. It's great to be full but having mostly active is the key.
Most new GMs and those who have taken a break from sim have some anxiety about this draft. With that said how deep do you feel this draft is?
- Odin: i don't think depth is the problem with this draft, it's just overall a level a talent that none of us are really used to seeing. it's no necessarily a bad thing, just a new thing.
- Skrouse: At first glance, I thought the draft was very lacking in talent. It is definitely less talent than we’ve seen in the creation draft from previous iterations of TMBSL. But after digging in a bit more, I now see the talent is there, it will just be more difficult to sort through, and that will definitely favor returning GMs.
- TimPig: I don’t think that it’s very deep, which will make picking 20th kind of a crapshoot. I’m trying not to overthink it. There seems to be a top tier of just a few guys, so I think for those who own top picks, there may be an opportunity to trade down and accumulate a wealth of future assets if someone is eyeing one of those top guys.
I was hoping that I was wrong and this file wasn't short on player depth. Sadly it seems that pickings might be a little slim and a bit difficult to judge off the file alone.
What position do you think has the most quality depth and what position do you think the pickings are slim?
- Odin: SG has the most depth if you include the SG eligible SFs. lot of big depth too. the pg situation, however, is very messy and i'm not looking forward to figuring out what to do there.
- Skrouse: It looks like there are a lot of big men that are playable, more at the C than the PF. There is a good mix of scorers and traditional D/R bigs. The PG looks really thin, especially for teams looking to build for the future. Some of the best PGs look like they’re already on the back 9 and I even see a few MVP candidates that will probably be out of the league within two to three seasons.
- TimPig: Without getting too deep into strategy, I probably lean towards bigs having the most overall depth, but mostly due to how the software/league is structured. Bigs are interchangeable, so being listed at C or PF makes almost no difference. They can also be good with a variety of different builds. Wings have less flexibility with the height caps for SFs playing SG, and you want wings who can score 95% of the time. You don’t necessarily need bigs who can score if they do other things well.
Guys confirming that SG/SF is the strongest aspect of the class. Going by the early selections we see that the elite talent of the class fall in those position groups as well.
Do you believe it's possible to build a championship contender if you select outside of the top 10? If yes where do you see that cutoff spot being? If lower also chime in on that.
- Odin: It would be difficult. I think there's a big gap between the top 12 or so and the rest of the guys, but here we are through 10 picks and a couple of players i wouldn't have put in that top 12 have already been drafted. you never know what's going to happen.
- Skrouse: You 100% can build a title contender outside of the top 10. Two main reason, the first obviously being the trade route. If a GM can accumulate an extra late 1st or a few 2nd or 3rd round picks you should end up with a solid starting five. Or if you can snag a good player from a weak team after creation, that could put a team over the top. And I also think the reverse order in the 2nd and 3rd rounds will create opportunities for GMs to snag solid players that may have dropped due to a short contract or advanced age.
- TimPig: Yes, though it’ll be different than what we saw in 5.0. Eric won the inaugural season after picking 9th, but Heebs, Pete, and Fason were all competitors early on if my memory serves me correctly, and they all picked outside of the top 10. There are quite a few players in the draft file with similar grades who don’t have profiles written and early success could depend a lot on how TCs shake out.
You're sitting at 1.1 in the creation draft, how big of an offer are we talking to get that off your hands? Are we talking multiple future 1st rounders?
- Odin: it probably could have only been taken by the lakers or clippers and would have required their creation first and 3003 1st.
- Skrouse: Definitely would need to be receiving a 1.1 or 1.2 in one of the upcoming drafts that have been announced. I think I would also need another top 15 first and then either a good chuck of skrouse skratch or a late first.
- TimPig: I think this is an outdated way of thinking with the wheel in place. Let’s say between now and the start of the draft, there’s tons of shuffling and someone collects multiple late first round picks. I wouldn’t trade 1.1 in the Creation Draft for five picks that are 1.25-1.29. If someone offered me 1.1 in a rookie draft for it straight up, I’d think really hard about it.
Early returns on trades clearly show people are not afraid of moving top tier picks in drafts down the road. Clippers giving up a prime pick in a really awesome class. The value of these creation picks is something those new will need to learn quickly.
Do you expect multiple GMs to trade back into the 1st round of the creation draft to get another top player?
- Odin: yes, i know i'm trading back in. skrouse is working to get more picks. dirt is trading back in. i doubt we will be the only ones but it's still very early.
- Skrouse: I think we’ll see 2 or 3 GMs trade aggressively back into the 1st or early 2nd. After a few strong teams start to appear, I think the remaining GMs will become hesitant to go all in early.
- TimPig: No. With lots of GMs needing to shake off the rust, I see people being cautious about acquiring extra firsts in Creation. I assume doing so would require said GM to move their own first round draft picks, which would be a big risk if you’re not confident in a plan.
The draft starting early threw off these answers. Tim was first in with his answers and we had yet to get a pick in. Both Skrouse and Odin sent in answers after the draft had started and saw the moves. With that now in play how much draft capital do those who made moves have left to get back into more rounds and who else may jump in at a lower draft capital cost.
Now let's dive into the player builds. Long are the days of the hyped up players of 1.0 as a noob to this new era this file looks like a bunch of meh. Could you give a grade range that is promising for talent. (example: Draft SG’s who have Inside no lower then C- or don’t draft a PF/C if his rebound grade is lower than ___)
- Odin: really there's no rules like that. read the profiles and scout. i know that doesn't apply to creation but still. read profiles and scout. beyond that, watch reb grades on guards. the higher it is the better chance they have of being something special.
- Skrouse: There are definitely parameters that I am using to avoid pitfalls and players that will hurt more than help. For example, if a guy has B scoring and F efficiency then he’s going to shoot a lot but not be a top scorer and I think that’ll hurt you. Another one is a PG that has C or less assists and C or lower TOs. That probably means they either played out of position or they have a low passing/handling grade combo. There are more but I’m not giving away all of my strategies in this RT
- TimPig: For scorers, I always look for guys who have high inside grades first. Don’t pay attention to defense grade. Low handling grades are usually fine unless we’re talking in the F range, but A+ can be about as dangerous. Anything under C+ rebounding for a big or small forward is iffy for me. If I want the SF to play SG, I might bend the rules a little bit.
This question was one I really looked forward to seeing the response. Thanks to Tim and Skrouse for dipping in and giving some vital info. I know those answers are very helpful for a noob like me.
Do you expect to see a lot of different team builds or do you expect to see an early run on a certain position and what position do you believe that would be?
- Odin: definitely think there will be a lot of different builds but also there will be an early run on wings because thats what most people know.
- Skrouse: I think the wings will go early, as the PGs aren’t that attractive as long term prospects and there is depth at the C and PF positions.
- TimPig: Yes. Assuming we stick with 29 GMs (or even anything above 20), it’s going to require people to get creative with how they build their teams. When we had 15 GMs, there was usually enough talent to go around for most of them to go inside-focused. I don’t see that being the case with twice as many teams getting built.
Clearly we have seen a early run on wings in this draft. Center was the first pick off the board. A run on bigs will happen at one point and maybe soon. To this point looking at the picks it looks very much like SF/SG is still the gold standard position in the sim league.
What is the biggest piece of advice you can offer about this draft?
- Odin: If you aren't sure then trade out. Nothing wrong with knowing you don't know. If you can't trade out trade back. Pick older players that GMs dont want so you can trade them when those GMs DO want them halfway through the season.
- Skrouse: Form a strategy and stick to it, if you waffle your team will end up in a bad place.
- TimPig: I made a big mistake last Creation Draft focusing solely on potential. With the unweighted lotto system we had and the chance of me never getting a high pick, that essentially meant I was banking entirely on those high-potential players to pan out (they didn’t). I think it’s less risky overall this time, but still not the best strategy. I also looked for guys with longer contracts so that I could keep this high-potential young core locked up for a while. Instead, almost all of their contracts became albatrosses.
Nobody chimed in on the contract aspect of the draft in this question. I think that is something people will need to be aware of. Based of previous creation drafts i've been a part of I would echo Skrouse and say pick a lane and stay in it even if it may not unfolding to plan. Abandoning it completely will do long term damage.
Looking forward to the upcoming drafts do you expect the rookies in those draft classes to quickly out talent the creation file?
- Odin: don't have much to say on this but yes, 100%
- Skrouse: If they end up on the right team with the right GM and they have a good TC. We saw plenty of very good players in 5.0 not get the right upgrade or being played in the wrong offensive Focus and that ended up hurting them long term.
- TimPig: Quickly? No. I think each season we’ll see an elite player or two in the draft, a few more all-stars, and a chunk of above average starters. Sprinkled in there will be some guys with crazy TCs who get really good years later, but I don’t see all of these things coming together quickly. It’ll take more than three seasons, I think.
I wish Odin would've dove deeper into the why. My initial feeling about the creation file and what's to come leads me to think some of these rookies in the hands of GMs who will pump them with points could quickly outpace some of the guys in this file.
How important is the contract length a player has to where you rank him or is the talent the only thing that matters?
- Odin: depends. a 1-2 year deal on a younger guy isn't a big deal as long as you keep your cap. a 1 year deal on an older max worthy guy gives you no advantage to sign here. for example, my 1.2. he is a rookie with a contract at 12.5. since i will have 1 bird and cap space next FA i can start my offer at 15m while everyone else can only do 12.5. this doesn't apply to players with enough experience to bump that first fa contract to 15m+
- Skrouse: If you’re in Win-Now mode, contract lengths should not matter that much in my opinion. If you’re building for the future, you obviously don’t want to risk you top guys leaving in a FA with 28 other hungry GMs with cap space.
- TimPig: See above. If I had a really high pick that was almost a sure thing, I might want to keep them locked up for longer. For picks after that, it can be a big problem if you’ve got guys locked up on deals for 4 or 5 years at $12.5 / $10 / $8 million.
I think contract lengths could really backfire on GMs. Take it from a guy who screwed himself in 1.0 with Tim Hardaway. Fuck DBL.
The draft file has “stats” as a tool to help with the drafting process. How much weight do you put into that tool? What individual stat do you think is most important and least?
- Odin: that's only here for creation, not all drafts, but i have mostly been using that when looking into players. there are obviously some situations with C across the board guys have good stats but i'm just going to let someone else figure out what their deal is.
- Skrouse: The stat grades should help GMs avoid disastrous early picks, outside of that they won’t do much. Points I think is the most important stat grade, the name of the game is scoring more points than your opponent. Assists is the least important for 80% of the players, it really only matters for PGs – and even then it could be due to playing out of position. So it carries the least amount of weight for me.
- TimPig: Most important = scoring efficiency. Least important = Assists. I find the stats to be just as important as the player grades themselves.
