Post by TinyTimPig on Apr 9, 2021 3:08:25 GMT -5
State of the West
Midwest Division
Chicago StagsSynopsis: The Stags have taken the patient approach of building through the draft and it looks like it's going to start coming together pretty soon. Joe Barry Carroll has improved significantly each year, moving from what appeared to be a definite bust to arguably the right pick at 1.3 in 3002. He put up solid numbers across the board in preseason and if that keeps up, the Stags have their foundational piece. They added David Lee this offseason who will slide in next to JBC and give the other team from Chicago a nice scoring frontcourt for the next decade. Rod Foster has proven to be a very solid point guard, averaging 20+ points per game in each of his first three seasons. With two top 10 picks this coming offseason and a 1.4 next year, adding three more rotational pieces (at the very worst) on the wing should give the Stags great depth to go along with at least one superstar in JBC.
Record Prediction: 38-44
Key Additions: David Lee, Monta Ellis, Rashad McCants
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 7/10
Dallas MavericksSynopsis: Last year's 45-37 record and first round playoff exit made it appear that Dallas' spot at or near the top of the Western Conference had wrapped up a year earlier than expected. Bad luck and injuries had the Mavs limp through the first three quarters of the season, though they finished much stronger. It wasn't enough to help them finish better than the 6 seed however and they ran into a Chaparrals team they really shouldn't have had to face in round one. A nice re-tooling on the fly this offseason added one of the league's most efficient wings in Le'Bryan Nash for a 1.5. He'll be an upgrade over Drazen, who retired. They'll have some of the best big depth in the league once again, adding Breuer to a rotation that already included Moala, Winfred King, and Noah Dickerson. I expect one of those bigs to get dealt early in the season for additional wing depth, which appears to be the Mavericks' biggest hole if you don't count Aaron Craft, who Dallas doesn't ask to do much. There isn't a ton of draft capital left here (just a 1.17 next year), but Soup always seems to find a way to add pieces even if his assets seem thin.
Record Prediction: 53-29
Key Additions: Randy Breuer, Le'Bryan Nash
Key Losses: Drazen Dalipagic, Jon Davis
Outlook: 6/10
Milwaukee BucksSynopsis: The Bucks lost in the Finals last year after a heartbreaking, multi-OT loss in Game 6 to the 76ers. This year they should be even better, adding a couple of rookies in Fran Vazquez and Matt Walsh who could both play significant minutes. With a full season of Horford, the Bucks have a good shot to win 70+ games (they won 69 last year) and seem like the favorite to win the West once again. The only thing that I could see potentially damaging this team is a major Kyle Hines drop-off coupled with the trade of Wayne Robinson to the Raptors. The two were both solid defenders down low and it'll be dependent on Horford to pick up some of that slack. The starting backcourt is excellent with Antonio Gates, Morris Almond, and Kelvin Sampson with Marques Haynes providing solid depth at the point. Backup wing is also a potential weakness if Walsh isn't ready to contribute right away. With three draft picks in the top 15 approaching in a few years, it won't be hard to fix any troublesome spots quickly.
Record Prediction: 71-11
Key Additions: Fran Vazquez, Matt Walsh
Key Losses: Wayne Robinson, Zam Fredrick II
Outlook: 9/10
Minnesota TimberwolvesSynopsis: The Timberwolves are in a position to be the league's most improved team after adding the best defender in the league in Kenny George to their frontcourt, where he should fit perfectly, and Chris Paul, who very well could be a top 2 or 3 point guard in the league as a rookie. The continued development of Kevin Durant and Daequan Cook is vital and I'll be interested to see how the addition of Paul impacts their usage. Up front, Jawann Oldham provides fantastic depth as a defensive stopper and Lenny Cooke is a wing who would probably start for 75% of teams in the league. The T-Wolves have now used most of their draft capital so it seems that additional major trades aren't in the cards. Every significant contributor is under 29, so Ian looks like he's hoping that this core is enough to get him into the top half of the conference this season and some additional TC development for a relatively young group will push him into contender status next year.
Record Prediction: 52-30
Key Additions: Kenny George, Chris Paul, Granville Waiters
Key Losses: Russell Cross
Outlook: 8/10
Phoenix SunsSynopsis: The Suns' rebuild began in earnest this offseason as they drafted Andrew Bogut at 1.4 and he appears to be a player with a very high floor and a decent ceiling. With +20 added to his inside, +10 to jumper, and (I would guess?) a -10 passing camp, Bogut should be solid at everything with the exception of defense for a long time. Micah Downs kind of came out of nowhere the past two seasons to give the Suns what will now be a second scoring option after Bogut. His rebounds leave a bit to be desired, but the defense is solid and turnovers are playable. Marvin Williams was a controversial pick but I hope he comes around for AndrewLuck's sake to give him another good starter, but his 35 inside build worries me. Dave Britton put up good numbers last season and went +4 in TC this year and I expect him to replace Jared Jordan as the team's starter sooner than later. I'm not entirely sure why he hasn't already been slotted in as the point guard of the future with +30 and a camp still available. The next sim decade for the Suns is likely defined by the 1.2 they have this offseason. Pairing another star with Bogut would be huge.
Record Prediction: 30-52
Key Additions: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Rickey Brown
Key Losses: Granville Waiters
Outlook: 6/10
San Antonio SpursSynopsis: The Spurs have a couple of pieces but have yet to be able to put together a cohesive roster, though part of their issue may be their reluctance to set a depth chart before sim 8 of each season. At this point, everyone knows about Rodney McCray, who is an above average scorer and excellent rebounder, much like Brooklyn's Michael Brooks. A couple of their other primary pieces - Mike Gminski, Mile Ilic, Kurt Nimphius, Gustavo Ayon, Julius Thomas, and Mustafa Shakur - appear to be rotational pieces at this point, with Gminski, Ilic, and Nimphius, showing glimpses that they could be more. If Pointy pays a bit of attention, he has the potential to add Kawhi Leonard in a few years to create a dynamite wing combo of him and McCray. Between now and then he should be focused on trying to inch his way up the draft boards to add pieces that could complement those two.
Record Prediction: 28-54
Key Additions: Mile Ilic
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 4.5/10
Texas ChaparralsSynopsis: In my opinion, the team that lost in the Western Conference Semifinals to the Grizzlies in 7 games got better this offseason in adding Danny Granger and James Blackmon Jr. Corey Brewer, who added steals and nothing else, is gone, as is Darrell Griffith, who had a tough sophomore campaign after a great rookie season. Judging by his preseason numbers, that's a trade that could end up coming back to bite the Chaps, but I think it makes them better, at least for today. Meeks and Breshers are a great frontcourt duo and James Ray provides good depth and Texas still boasts one of the league's best point guards in Papaloukas. I foresee some depth chart tinkering as he seems to want to have Blackmon sub at SF and SG, but I think Chap may find Mike O'Koren being better suited to back up both positions as it seems like we usually see small forwards make the transition to shooting guard better than the other way around. As it stands, I like Texas a lot for both their starting lineup and depth at every position. They also seem like a candidate to make a blockbuster trade for a star player if they're willing to part with their future 1.2.
Record Prediction: 60-22
Key Additions: Danny Granger, James Blackmon Jr.
Key Losses: Darrell Griffith, Corey Brewer
Outlook: 8/10
Pacific Division
Golden State WarriorsSynopsis: I think the Warriors had the potential to finish above .500 last year, but without a real shot at a championship, I don't think they were afraid to tinker and make some moves to set themselves up better a few years down the road. They added one of the league's best big men this offseason in Devin Williams during the Hawks firesale. He's good enough that we could see it change the entire dynamic for Golden State, who seemed set on running an outside 4.0-style offense, but now may shift to a balanced approach to accommodate their shiny new toy. I haven't been high on Andrew Toney to date, but if his preseason is any indication, he's very much the player Ward hoped he would be when he selected him second overall a couple of years ago. Greg Oden will lock down the middle with excellent defense, rebounding, and no turnovers to speak of. Kelvin Ransey will be a stable if not above average starter at point guard, while Ronny Turiaf, Jon Diebler, J.P. Tokoto, Luke Recker, and Byron Scott offer some of the best depth in the league. Williams came at a significant cost (1.8, 1.11, and 1.17), but the Dubs still have a future 1.5 to look forward to.
Record Prediction: 46-36
Key Additions: Devin Williams, Ronny Turiaf, J.P. Tokoto, Luke Recker
Key Losses: Jason Gardner
Outlook: 7/10
Los Angeles ClippersSynopsis: Another season, another roster turnover for the Clippers. In a move that surprised no one, Dirt flipped two of his 1.4s (as well as a couple of later picks) for Doug Wrenn and Joshua Smith. Those two, alongside Jason Capel, Demetrius Mitchell, and Jarvis Lang haven't been enough to get the Grizzlies over the hump again after their 3001 title. Will a supporting cast of Wes Matthews Sr., Jeff Ruland, Chris Richard, and Mickael Gelabale be better? Probably not immediately, but the Clippers still have a 1.4 and a 1.3 coming up who could give the Clippers a pretty mean starting 5, whether those picks are actually made by the Clippers or swapped for another star. As a fan of draft picks, I liked the idea of four top-five picks in succession coming together to form a fantastic core, but, at least for now, Dirt added two bonafide studs for half of his desirable draft capital. Joshua Smith going -2 in inside scoring and defense promptly after being acquired certainly was not ideal for a Los Angeles team that, in theory, seems like it would be focused on really making a push in 3007 or 3008 after those draft picks have been made. But as we've quickly learned, if the window appears to be closing, Dirt will make the trades necessary to put him in a position to succeed.
Record Prediction: 58-24
Key Additions: Doug Wrenn, Joshua Smith, Tyrone Davis,Mickael Gelabale
Key Losses: Mike Gansey
Outlook: 8/10
Los Angeles LakersSynopsis: Marc Gasol is the real deal and gives the Lakers an elite center for a long time. Two years ago, the Lakers went 29-53 under former GM Tyler. After adding Gasol, Randy Wittman, and John Pinone, as well as a few smaller pieces, they improved 18 games to finish last season 47-35 and fifth in the Western Conference. Now they've added a very good third wing in Jason Capel, two hidden gems in Uros Slokar and Luther Head, and maybe a new starting point guard in Nate Robinson. It's been a quick turnaround for the forgotten team in Los Angeles, who should challenge for 50+ wins and a top 4 seed this season. They have one star in Gasol and three good wings, but will need to work the phones to add a second big and point guard, as well as depth at both positions, assuming that their rookies won't be ready to assume that responsibility right away.
Record Prediction: 51-31
Key Additions: Jason Capel, Uros Slokar, Luther Head, Nate Robinson
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 7/10
Portland Trail BlazersSynopsis: The Blazers finally made the big moves they needed to make to fill their biggest holes at second big and point guard, adding still-in-his-prime big man Jarvis Lang and his career 1.17 pts/tsa and Sergei Belov, who may not be the best point guard in the league anymore but should still be top 5 at least. Portland, who I rated poorly last year due to a lack of draft capital and no clear path forward, was able to make these significant upgrades and only lose a 1.14 and 1.21 in the process. As expected, Ralph Sampson hasn't improved since his fantastic rookie year, but he's still an excellent all-around big who should pair nicely with Lang. Josh Peppers is still as efficient as ever, so the only real questions are at shooting guard where I'm not entirely convinced that William Buford or Mike Woodson are the answer. Both could probably be very good third wings, but I'd hate to see this team brought down by average wing play. Once again, they lack draft assets to make many more moves this year.
Record Prediction: 59-23
Key Additions: Jarvis Lang, Sergei Belov
Key Losses: Tyrone Davis
Outlook: 6.5/10
Sacramento KingsSynopsis: This team entered the offseason with two pieces in Sidney Green and Derek Harper and successfully added a third in Andray Blatche. I didn't see Blatche's build, but I believe he's a hidden gem which, coupled with A potential, should give him a good opportunity to become a good player. The wing situation is still dire and Blatche isn't a sure thing, so there are definitely some things to be worried about here. The only really valuable draft pick coming up is a 1.3 in 3007, so hitting in free agency or flipping Green and/or Harper for additional assets will be key for this team to turn it around. Sidney Green is on the block and, if I were GBG, I think I'd be searching for a few top 10ish picks rather than a single high pick, which likely puts you back into the same situation he's in now.
Record Prediction: 32-50
Key Additions: Andray Blatche
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 4/10
Seattle SuperSonicsSynopsis: Seattle appears to finally be starting to hang on to some of their chips rather than pushing them a few years out. Arron Afflalo, Spencer Hawes, Roosevelt Bouie, and Bruce Collins are all efficient players and the hope is that John Calipari can be one as well after he receives a few upgrades. While the Sonics finished as just the 7th seed last year, they finished 26-16 during the second half after acquiring Calipari and switching to an outside focus - a marked improvement from the first half when they went just 18-22. Can that success carry over? If so, this team could surprise a lot of people. Ike Diogu, the second of Seattle's two first round picks, should be a major improvement at third big over Kenrick Zondervan while Lou Williams, the 12th overall pick, will start as a backup at both shooting guard and point guard, though he probably needs a bit more seasoning before he's ready to be counted on. Seattle still hasn't had to trade really any of their draft capital with 5 top 10 picks over the next four seasons including a 1.5 and 1.3.
Record Prediction: 46-36
Key Additions: John Calipari, Lou Williams, Ike Diogu
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 7.5/10
Vancouver GrizzliesSynopsis: The Grizzlies competed with the Hawks for the biggest teardown and the two should compete for the largest reduction in win percentage between last season and this one. As of today, there doesn't appear to be much of anything to pay attention to this year unless you're into Sean May, Randolph Morris, or Sidney Lowe for some reason. It's unfortunate that Doug Wrenn couldn't push the team over the hump again last year as Druce had to sacrifice a 1.1 to acquire him and then essentially traded him away for a 1.4. Things will likely be bleak for a few seasons - no first round pick this year and 1.9 in 3006 - before their two 1.4s can be made in back to back years. It's probably my least favorite situation to be in as it looks like it'll be a couple of seasons before there's something worthwhile for Druce to pay attention to. He's traded every player on his team that was a contender for the first four seasons and resulted in one championship and now just plays the waiting game until those picks are ready to be made.
Record Prediction: 13-69
Key Additions: Sean May, Randolph Morris
Key Losses: Joshua Smith, Jarvis Lang, Doug Wrenn, Jason Capel, Demetrius Mitchell
Outlook: 3/10
