Post by eric on Mar 23, 2021 16:14:54 GMT -5
No.
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Not counting this season, the teams he has been on have cumulatively been 2 points better defensively than average. Two doesn't sound like a lot but it's actually quite good! In NBA history the only All-Defensive 1st Teamers whose teams were above two are:
Bill Russell is by a wide margin the best defender in NBA history.
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But since Bill's day we have a lot more granular data. Starting in 1974 the NBA started recording steals blocks turnovers and whether a rebound was offensive or defensive, and starting in 1997 they started recording plus minus. This has allowed enterprising individuals to model plus minus using box score inputs and extend that back to 1974. We can't use that to compare Draymond to Wilt or Bill but we can to the other fellows listed above. Here's how that goes:
Draymond does better here! But even in only the 1974-present period, he is not the best. Also worth noting is that Green's DPBM is liable to decrease as he ages - both Robinson and Rodman through year seven had DPBMs 0.2 higher than their eventual career number, while Duncan's was the same.
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Our cohort gets even smaller if we only use actual defensive plus minus on/off since it's just Tim, but we may as well look at that too:
Success! Except this time Tim was a 5 through the first seven years of his career (and in fact through the first ten) so Draymond is likely to see decline as he ages, and in point of fact already is: after peaking at a 7 through his first five years, he was already down to 5 last year and so far this year is actually making his team worse on defense when he plays.
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There is no evidence Draymond Green is the best defender to play in the 2000s, let alone in NBA history, and considerable evidence to the contrary.
.
Not counting this season, the teams he has been on have cumulatively been 2 points better defensively than average. Two doesn't sound like a lot but it's actually quite good! In NBA history the only All-Defensive 1st Teamers whose teams were above two are:
3 - Dennis Rodman
3 - David Robinson
3 - Wilt Chamberlain
5 - Tim Duncan
8 - Bill RussellBill Russell is by a wide margin the best defender in NBA history.
.
But since Bill's day we have a lot more granular data. Starting in 1974 the NBA started recording steals blocks turnovers and whether a rebound was offensive or defensive, and starting in 1997 they started recording plus minus. This has allowed enterprising individuals to model plus minus using box score inputs and extend that back to 1974. We can't use that to compare Draymond to Wilt or Bill but we can to the other fellows listed above. Here's how that goes:
3.1 - David Robinson
2.8 - Draymond Green
2.3 - Tim Duncan
0.5 - Dennis RodmanDraymond does better here! But even in only the 1974-present period, he is not the best. Also worth noting is that Green's DPBM is liable to decrease as he ages - both Robinson and Rodman through year seven had DPBMs 0.2 higher than their eventual career number, while Duncan's was the same.
.
Our cohort gets even smaller if we only use actual defensive plus minus on/off since it's just Tim, but we may as well look at that too:
5 - Draymond Green
4 - Tim DuncanSuccess! Except this time Tim was a 5 through the first seven years of his career (and in fact through the first ten) so Draymond is likely to see decline as he ages, and in point of fact already is: after peaking at a 7 through his first five years, he was already down to 5 last year and so far this year is actually making his team worse on defense when he plays.
.
.
There is no evidence Draymond Green is the best defender to play in the 2000s, let alone in NBA history, and considerable evidence to the contrary.
