Post by TinyTimPig on Mar 19, 2021 12:13:02 GMT -5
State of the West
Midwest Division
Chicago StagsSynopsis: The Stags have yet to add a bonafide star or foundational piece through three full seasons, but that was intentional. They have four top 10 picks coming in the 3004 and 3005 drafts as well as four firsts in the bottom half of the first round over the next five years. The present roster, however, isn't much to look at. The brightest spots are Rod Foster, a former second round pick who has emerged as a point guard who can put up 20+ points per 36 on 1.08 pts/tsa - comparable to the second tier of point guards. Joe Barry Carroll was a low-floor, high-ceiling third overall pick whose rookie season left a lot to be desired. He was selected so high based on potential, so there's still hope he develops, but he's going to need a lot of help to meet the lofty expectations associated with being the third overall pick. This roster looks a lot more promising if it has a Kiki Vandeweghe, Michael Brooks, or Mike Gminski in Carroll's place.
3003 Record Prediction: 24-58
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 5.5/10
Dallas MavericksSynopsis: The Mavericks have yet to need to rebuild, but they've been able to reload each offseason. They suffered a big loss this season with the retirement of Bob Kurland, a 20/10/3 bleal big without any major holes in his game. He and Moala have been a dynamic duo down low for Dallas for each of the first three seasons and while Moala received most of the recognition, Bob was the defensive stalwart of those teams. To offset that loss, the Mavs traded up-and-coming wing John Pinone to the Clippers in exchange for Winfred King, who should be able to replace Kurland's offensive production but will struggle at the other end. Of the teams that most would have considered "contenders" last season, only the Pacers allowed a worse opponent's pts/tsa than Dallas and that should only get worse with Kurland departing. A full season of Shaun Witherspoon on the wing may offset some of that loss, but he was there in the playoffs and not quite enough to get the Mavs over the hump, even with Kurland around. Offensively, the Mavs can score as well as anyone with Moala, Noah Dickerson, King, Drazen Dalipagic, Witherspoon, and Jon Diebler. Dallas also has the 3008 1.4 which could surely be flipped for a major return in case the loss of Kurland hurts more than expected.
3003 Record Prediction: 62-20
Key Additions: Winfred King, Jon Diebler
Key Losses: Bob Kurland, John Pinone
Outlook: 8/10
Milwaukee BucksSynopsis: The Bucks are set up well after they made the second round of the playoffs last year, adding future star big man Al Horford to the mix. Accompanying him are Antonio Gates and some combination of Cletrell Pope, Kyle Hines, Wayne Robinson, Marques Haynes, and Kelvin Sampson. I expect at least a couple of those names to be moved, so this roster could look very different before sim 1. If Horford, Hines, Gates, and Haynes are around, there's no reason this team shouldn't at least replicate last year's success. Morris Almond could be a sneaky addition as well, as I know the Bucks are high on him after extensive scouting. If he does work out, that's two rookies taken in the same year who will have very manageable contracts for the next few years and offer the Bucks the opportunity to add even more. Horford should contend for Rookie of the Year and allow either Pope or Robinson to slide from average to below average starter to solid third big. My only real concern is that Hines is a bit long in the tooth and likely on the decline very soon, which may not align very well with the development of Horford and Almond. They also have no real desirable picks for the next five seasons.
3003 Record Prediction: 60-22
Key Additions: Al Horford, Morris Almond
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 7.5/10
Minnesota TimberwolvesSynopsis: After watching from the sidelines for three seasons, the T-Wolves are finally ready to start making some moves. Much of their near-term success depends on the development of one Kevin Durant, who Minnesota sacrificed multiple future picks to jump up and select. Rumors out of the Gopher State indicate GM IanBoyd doesn't have much faith in his first meaningful draft pick, already floating him in trade offers for future selections. Outside of him, there are a couple of nice pieces on this roster, but they're all logjammed on the wing. Mike Gansey is fine if you don't look at the contract he's being paid. Oscar Schmidt is a one-dimensional shooting guard who will likely be used as a trade chip. Daequan Cook is a promising hidden gem and probably the most worthy of investment of anyone on the roster after Durant. Both of their bigs, Russell Cross and Isaiah Austin, are solid defensively and slightly below average on the boards. I'm not sure anyone on this roster is locked in as a future foundational piece, though Cook might be the closest. The first overall pick this coming year and the seventh pick five years from now can be maneuvered alongside their excess of wings to create a competitive roster.
3003 Record Prediction: 36-46
Key Additions: Kevin Durant, Daequan Cook, Oscar Schmidt
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 6/10
Phoenix SunsSynopsis: With the addition of Kenny Natt in yesterday's blockbuster deal, the Suns are ready to make their run to the Finals. I kid, I kid. I actually loved Phoenix's draft this year. They took A potential big man Tiago Splitter in round one and he can be a very good player in an inside offense if he experiences any natural growth at all. And then late in round one they took Jared Jordan, whose scout is arguably the second best among point guards in the class after Mike Conley. Of course, both players are "nice to have" as they look forward to the fourth and sixth overall picks in 3004 and the second pick in 3005. I think they've added two capable starters this year and if they're able to pick two all-star caliber players with these three early picks, they'll be in great shape moving forward. Aside from the rookies, Micah Downs looks like the best player on the roster as he took a major step last year following the departure of known ball hog Luke Maye.
3003 Record Prediction: 24-58
Key Additions: Tiago Splitter, Jared Jordan
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 6.5/10
San Antonio SpursSynopsis: The Spurs have a nice little stew going with the combination of Mike Gminski and Rodney McCray as two real building blocks and Kurt Nimphius and Julius Thomas as nice complementary pieces. McCray is particularly interesting as he managed to cut out nearly an entire turnover per 36 while improving his rebounding. His pts/tsa dropped by a worrisome amount but hopefully that's a fluke and nothing significant. San Antonio had numerous draft picks this year who are likely to get significant playing time - Petteri Koponen, Mustafa Shakur, and Aaron Gray - and if one pans out I think they're set up decently well. Whichever players they decide to invest in should be in their prime by the time their next high draft pick (1.2 in 3007) rolls around. Last season they weren't great offensively or defensively but I see multiple players here who have shown flashes and whose development is worth paying attention to.
3003 Record Prediction: 40-42
Key Additions: Petteri Koponen, Aaron Gray, Mustafa Shakur
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 6.5/10
Texas ChaparralsSynopsis: The Chaparrals probably boast the second best roster in the division after the Mavericks, especially if Darrell Griffith takes another big leap forward. I'll be curious to see how this team sets their depth chart since Corey Brewer, who they traded two future picks to move back into the first round and select, doesn't have shooting guard eligibility. Does O'Koren back up both wing spots? Or does he start, leaving Brewer as the backup small forward and...Leo Rautins as the backup shooting guard? Regardless, Texas features one of the best frontcourt duos in the league in Kennedy Meeks and Tyreese Breshers and arguably the best point guard in the league in Papaloukas. Griffith is surprisingly good and likely to get better. No matter what this team does with their depth chart, they're a definite contender and have 1.8 in 3004 and 1.2 in 3008 as valuable trade assets if they do decide to swing for the fences. James Ray should get another +20 this season which will give the Chaps a very good third big as well.
3003 Record Prediction: 64-18
Key Additions: Corey Brewer
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 9/10
Pacific Division
Golden State WarriorsSynopsis: It's now clear that Ward and Golden State are working off of the old 4.0 model, giving up a king's ransom to move up in the 3003 draft and select Greg Oden, giving up the same pick next year and an additional 1.12 to the Pipers to give themselves the opportunity to draft the big man out of Ohio State. On top of that, they sent another mid-first to the rebuilding Knicks for Jawann Oldham, a player who fits the D/R mold alongside Oden nicely. Golden State hit big in the draft last year, grabbing two 10+ year starters to fill their backcourt in Andrew Toney and Kelvin Ransey. Both are extremely valuable but Ransey may get the edge due to positional scarcity. Additionally, both still have B shown potential and may have opportunities for additional growth. Jon Davis was brought back and may now receive the +30 handling/-10 passing that many of us had in mind when bidding on his services the past couple of years. If his turnovers can even get down into the 3ish range, he'll be an excellent trade asset for the Dubs. He'll be a serviceable backup for them, but with his tendency towards inside scoring, I'm not sure he fits in long term. Two top ten picks and three top eleven picks in the 06 and 07 drafts give the Warriors some ammo to add a small forward, either via the draft if they're patient or via trade if Toney, Ransey, and Oden come out of the gates hot. The loss of Voyoukas doesn't hurt all that much and may actually be beneficial as he was a high-volume big on a team who wants more shots filtered to their outside studs.
3003 Record Prediction: 41-41
Key Additions: Greg Oden, Jawann Oldham
Key Losses: Ian Voyoukas
Outlook: 7.5/10
Los Angeles ClippersSynopsis: I'm impressed with Dirt for following a long-term plan through for at least one season, though I still have a hard time believing he makes his four top five picks over the next five years. If he does, I like where this team stands a lot, but I'm extremely biased when it comes to the value of high draft picks. I see two pieces on the current roster who have some good value in Lenny Cooke and John Pinone and one more in Wes Matthews whose value probably isn't great right now but the type of player you hold on to and flip if they put together a really good season or half-season. If he gets +20 handles, I'm not sure if his turnover problem isn't still very bad, so if he doesn't see natural handling growth, I'm wondering if he might be better suited to play shooting guard. Dirt is high on Chris Richard as well, but I'm not sure I feel great about him after hearing about a bad TC in Discord last night. Regardless, he's a hidden gem and if he has a better TC in the real sim, he could end up being a fourth asset in the Winfred King, who was traded to Dallas, mold. I think the mostly outcome for this team is that he ends up combining his current assets - Cooke, Pinone, Richard - with those top 5 picks to try and move up a spot or two wherever he can.
3003 Record Prediction: 38-44
Key Additions: John Pinone, Chris Richard
Key Losses: Winfred King
Outlook: 8/10
Los Angeles LakersSynopsis: Pete (we think) comes into a situation that looks a lot better than what we usually see when it comes to GMs taking over teams as Tyler didn't really go through a multi-season period of ignoring his team, though it's still not totally ideal. From a roster perspective, Marc Gasol was, at worst, a top-2 pick in the most recent draft (with his only competition being Horford). He has a high ceiling with 90 potential and a pretty solid build all-around otherwise. Next to him, they have hyper-efficient wing Randy Wittman, who could put up 25+ on this team with Gasol being the only other long-term piece IMO. The controversial Thurl Bailey, who has received 28 (?) of his 30 upgrade points is also here, but he shoots too much with poor efficiency to be viewed as a foundational piece. Wilson Chandler was a sneaky good pick as a wing with A potential and positional flexibility. Pete will have two top-10 picks - one in 06 and one in 08 - and six later firsts to play around with as well.
3003 Record Prediction: 31-51
Key Additions: Marc Gasol, Randy Wittman, Wilson Chandler
Key Losses: Derek Raivio
Outlook: 6.5/10
Portland Trail BlazersSynopsis: I struggle a lot with this team as they won 53 games last year and have one of the league's best young big men in Ralph Sampson. William Buford and Josh Peppers are both fine players, but not sure either is the second piece on a championship team. Tyrone Davis is probably better suited as a third big due to his atrocious rebounding at the position, and maybe if Tom Piotrowski continues to develop Majic will be able to slide Davis down and count on him a bit less. Point guard is the most glaring weakness and second big is underwhelming as this team currently stands. Former "lottery" pick Mike Woodson didn't see the court as a rookie and is the most valuable and arguably the only real trade chip this team has. They've traded out of the first for the next four years and their 3008 pick is 21st overall. If Woodson gets traded for, say, a starting point guard, that opens a hole at backup wing (unless Raymond Lewis returns) and leaves questions in the frontcourt. This team will make the playoffs, but I just don't see them having the firepower to give themselves a really good shot outside of RNG luck.
Record Prediction: 51-31
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 4/10
Sacramento KingsSynopsis: No one is entirely sure what's going on with the ownership situation in Sacramento, and we could see GBG (I think?) at the reins in the next few days unless irush decides to pop on and send a bid for some reason. No matter who ends up running things moving forward, I don't see this as a bad situation by any means. It's not great, but it's workable. I'm not as high on Sidney Green as some others, but my opinion doesn't matter if other GMs are willing to trade multiple good picks for him. Derek Harper, on the other hand, I'm a pretty big fan of and he still has +10 and a camp to perhaps fix his turnover issues. No matter who is GMing the Kings, the right move might be to strip the roster and try and stack some picks around the 3007 1.3 they currently own. Obviously taking a vacation this offseason will throw a wrench into their overall long-term plan, but fortunately they won't be caught in a position where Green or Harper are left to hit the free agent market with no return.
3003 Record Prediction: 20-62
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: None
Outlook: 4/10
Seattle SuperSonicsSynopsis: The Sonics finally made some top-10 picks this season after pushing out for the first couple of years. It was pretty bleak in the Emerald City for a while with Noah Dickerson being the only real bright spot for the first year, and then Randy Wittman and Ken Austin proving to be, at the very least, reliable players. Dickerson and Wittman are both out, and in are Spencer Hawes and Arron Afflalo, who both figure into the team's long-term plans assuming GM TimPig assessed their draft builds correctly. Austin is still around and Bruce Collins was a pleasant surprise as a rookie taken in the late first round. Insider info indicates that TimPig is high on all four of those players and looking forward to seeing how they perform as a unit this season. A couple others are currently question marks in Roosevelt Bouie (is his ceiling as a third big?) and Javaris Crittenton (can his nice defensive attributes overcome awful rebounding and scoring numbers?). If just a couple of these pieces can pan out, the SuperSonics have five top 10 picks in the next five years to continue to add high-caliber pieces, including 1.5 in 3006 and 1.3 in 3008.
3003 Record Prediction: 42-40
Key Additions: Spencer Hawes, Arron Afflalo, Javaris Crittenton
Key Losses: Randy Wittman
Outlook: 8/10
Vancouver GrizzliesSynopsis: The Grizzlies have been at the top of the Western Conference (and league) after a fantastic creation draft that saw them select a number of impact players who were relatively young. They have one of the league's top trios in Joshua Smith, Jarvis Lang, and Doug Wrenn while Jason Capel and Demetrius Mitchell are both very good in their own right. They don't appear to have any holes in their starting lineup and have some decent depth with players like Retin Obasohan and Shawn James. The biggest problem right now is probably backup wing, where Carlos Clark (who is now gone) played a lot of minutes last year but was a significant downgrade from any of Druce's starters. With only two late selections in the next five years, that could be a difficult hole to plug and could be the difference between winning a championship or falling just short again. In my opinion, entering the playoffs with even one significant hole means you're relying a lot on RNG and with a roster that almost seems guaranteed to make at least the Conference Finals, I'd be doing what I could to add wing insurance. With a relatively young core outside of Mitchell, the Grizz appear ready to run it back at least one more time and could probably do it for the next few years if Obasohan or Lowe develop and can replace him.
3003 Record Prediction: 61-21
Key Additions: None
Key Losses: Carlos Clark
Outlook: 8/10
