Rookie Ladder - 3018 (221 views)

[delap]

PreSeason/Initial Rankings

On the whole, this class looks pretty intriguing, given that upgrades can really change some of the holes you see in bigger players and players on the cusp/fringe. I think Big Al is in a class by himself right now, but upgrades could change the landscape. I'm not married to any of the guys 2-10 in their spots and see a lot of potential in the HM category to show up on the ladder at Day 40. Because of that, after #3 I'm doing some big groupings by similar position/style for this first time. This could really be a boom/bust class... but I don't know the fates of the teenage TCs for anyone other than my own player (Robert Swift).

1. Al Jefferson - Seattle SuperSonics

2nd in raw scoring, 2nd in P/TSA, 1st in rebounding with an astounding 14 per/36. He doesn't bring defense to the equation, but he also doesn't turn it over despite high usage. It will be interesting to see where upgrades can fix his (few) flaws... or if Tim goes all out and just ups jumpshot to make him an offensive god.

2. Trevor Ariza - Texas Chaparrals

Not knowing if he got the dreaded teen potential drop... I put Ariza here based on potential, current grades, and PS output. He's an incredibly well-rounded player who brings better-than-average stats in every way. He needs his jumpshot to be boosted, but that's about the only need I see.

3. Dwight Howard - Seattle SuperSonics

I know I know... his P/TSA is simply garbage... Dreadful even, sitting at .945. But the rest is pretty darn nice. Comes into the league as a Top 5 shot-blocker, he's the 2nd best rebounder in the class, and he also doesn't turn it over. Unlike his teammate though, he has multiple holes to fill with upgrades to fix his offensive game.

4a. Ben Gordon - Utah Jazz

4b. J.R. Smith - Milwaukee Bucks

4c. David Young - Anaheim Amigos

Some shooting guards with somewhat similar outputs land right here. Gordon leads the group in P/TSA and simply does not turn the ball over.  However, he doesn't seem to play any defense either... so that might be a wash. He's the best rebounder of the group, too, so he gets the (a) slot. J.R. looks to take a bit more volume and looks like a very solid defender with 1.5 steals/36. He doesn't turn it over much at all either. I don't know who David Young is, but his PS stats are very solid. He looks like J.R. Lite in a lot of ways, good find by Anaheim.

7a. Viktor Khryapa - Utah Jazz

7b. Rafael Araujo - Seattle SuperSonics

7c. Sergei Monia - Miami Heat

Here come the generally solid, but possibly generic (?) bigs. Khryapa is #1 in P/TSA in the class, but the volume was pretty low. His defensive chops don't look terrible and he takes care of the ball. He could be a stronger rebounder. Araujo is the unheralded 3rd big in the Emerald City, but the Big Brazilian had a very solid PS and generally looks like an above-average big prospect. Limited growth could doom him, but the foundation is strong. Sergei Monia might just be the best player on a bad team, but his stats are impressive either way. 1st in the class in scoring, putting up over 31 pts/36. He turns it over quite a bit though, and is not a defender. This may be his last appearance, as he won't get upgraded and it may just be a flash in the pan.

10. Andris Biedrins - Milwaukee Bucks

The Latvian (?? I think, I'm not looking it up) Hammer gets the D/R spot here at #10. The 2nd best shot-blocker in the group and a decent rebounder in a class that really doesn't have many of those, Biedrins has some weaknesses, but none that will doom your team.

Honorable Mentions

Points:

None

Wings:

Dorell Wright - San Antonio Spurs

Luke Jackson - New York Knicks

Justin Reed - Toronto Raptors

Royal Ivey - Pittsburgh Pipers

Bigs:

David Harrison - Los Angeles Lakers

Anderson Varejao - Chicago Stags

Ha Seung-Jin - Anaheim Amigos

Josh Smith - Texas Chaparrals

Robert Swift - Toronto Raptors

[delap]

Day 40 Update

I really like the top 10ish players in this class... and then not much else. I see 5-6 potential All-Stars, but not a lot of starters/rotation guys beyond that. Overall the class isn't hyper-efficient.

1. Al Jefferson - Seattle SuperSonics (previous: 1)
Big Al still holding down that top spot, despite a pretty big reduction in rebound share (falling to 2nd in the class, behind his teammate). 3rd in P/TSA among qualifying players and 2nd in scoring, Al still doesn't turn it over and is an offensive engine in the Emerald City.



2. Trevor Ariza - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 2)
4th in P/TSA and still an overall strong player, Ariza doesn't pop off the stat sheet in any particular area, but is solid across the board. With some more "wow" potential in the next 3 on the list, this will probably be his last update at #2 unless he shows a little more. Still big on his long-term potential, though.



3. J.R. Smith - Milwaukee Bucks (previous: 4b)
A big boost from upgrades, J.R. is filling up the bucket at an alarming rate. 3rd in overall scoring and a league-average P/TSA, Smith is built to score in an outside offense and at worst average on the boards/defense. Not a bad pickup at all.



4. Dwight Howard - Seattle SuperSonics (previous: 3)
I know I know... he looks way better and he dropped a spot. That said, he's looking pretty good and I seriously considered him for #2. I'm concerned that all of his upgrades are used and his FT% is still straight doo-doo. Everything else is elite, though, including lack of TOs. If his P/TSA can stay near league-average, I am quite sure he'll move up at the next update.



5. Delonte West - Houston Rockets (previous: NR)
A ladder debutante, Mr. West look like a quite excellent PG prospect, especially as a scorer. He's not a strong defender, but is putting up some real scoring stats. He might be maxed out as a player, with lower starting potential and all 30 used... but in a class with no other major players at his position, he is the king.



6. Dorell Wright - San Antonio Spurs (previous: HM)
2nd in P/TSA, good size for a wing, and the proud new owner of +30 in inside, I expect his stock to boom a little right now. If his rebounding or defensive numbers can inch up while his scoring surely does the same, he'll be pushing Ariza for top-SF plaudits.



7a. Peter John Ramos - Pittsburgh Pipers (previous: NR)
7b. Robert Swift - Toronto Raptors (previous: HM)
Two newbies with similar profiles, Ramos and Swift are both high potential teenage bigs who can do a little bit of everything you want to see. Ramos maybe needs a tad more rebounding, but that grows well for bigs and Swift could be a little more careful with the ball. Both have +10 waiting and could be big movers in years 2/3 of their careers.




9a. Josh Smith - Texas Chaparrals (previous: HM)
9b. Ben Gordon - Utah Jazz (previous: 4a)
Both players might be better than this... but their samples are really small and I can't justify moving them any higher, but also don't feel right leaving them off. Aside from low minutes, they are not similar players at all. Smith is blocking shots at the same rate as Dwight... but isn't the same player in any other category... and is really inefficient. That said, he hasn't been upgraded, so maybe there is some love left to give. Gordon is crazy efficient... but simply hasn't played. He's a surprisingly strong defender, while also being a terrible rebounder. He also hasn't gotten upgraded, so both of these guys have major room for upward expansion.





Honorable Mentions:

Points:
None

Wings:
Justin Reed - Toronto Raptors

Bigs:
Andris Biedrins - Milwaukee Bucks
Kris Humphries - Charlotte Hornets
Sergei Monia - Miami Heat

[TinyTimPig]

I’m surprised that Ariza or JR are above Dwight. Ariza especially considering he’s a wing who has received +30 to reach league average scoring and offers nothing else to speak of.

[20s]

Dec 21, 2021 21:45:20 GMT -5 TinyTimPig said:

I’m surprised that Ariza or JR are above Dwight. Ariza especially considering he’s a wing who has received +30 to reach league average scoring and offers nothing else to speak of.

Yeah what am I missing with Ariza?

[Dirt]

give me Dwight all day #1 his bleals alone are nuts

[delap]

Day 90 Update
Similar dudes, different order. Dwight continues his ascent as his P/TSA continues to go up and his TOs continue to go down. Without further ado, I present, the Ladder.

1. Al Jefferson - Seattle SuperSonics (previous: 1)
Close! 2nd in P/TSA, has fallen to 3rd in rebounding (behind teammate Howard and laddermate Okafor), but still one of two ++ offensive players in the class (along with JR), and simply doesn't turn it over given his very high usage and volume.



2. Dwight Howard - Seattle SuperSonics (previous: 4)
He continues to improve and the rough edges are fading away. He probably won't ever be elite offensively, but if he can be anywhere near league average in efficiency he will still be a perennial all-star candidate. His defensive prowess is still well above the rest of the class and he's already a DPOTY candidate. He is only narrowly behind Jefferson in the rankings and these two are a tier above #3.



3. J.R. Smith - Milwaukee Bucks (previous: 3)
A high volume, moderately high efficiency, scoring guard with high potential... The real question isn't "Who shot JR?" it's "Who did JR shoot?" (answer: the basketball, often). He, like Big Al at #1, is high usage without any TO issues at all... and unlike Big Al, he plays a bit of defense and has a solid steal rate already.



4a. Trevor Ariza - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 2)
4b. Dorell Wright - San Antonio Spurs (previous: 6)
Two very solid young wings who have bright futures. Dorell is a better scorer, but Ariza is better at basically everything else. Ariza is a strong rebounder and good defender for a rookie. Both take care of the ball. With a little luck Wright could be an elite scorer, so while Ariza is certainly better at the moment, in a few years I could see Wright being a MAX player and lead scorer.




6. Delonte West - Houston Rockets (previous: 5)
1st in P/TSA among players that have played enough minutes (sorry Ben Gordon and Andre Emmett) and clearly the top PG of the class. He's effectively capped as a prospect, which means his deficiencies in rebounding and defense may not ever improve. Yet alas... he's a solid offensive player and the rest of the points in this class are just awful.



7. Josh Smith - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 9a)
Along with Okafor, the 2nd best defender in the group... and he's finally over 1.00 P/TSA! He's playing a bit more, which makes me feel better about his true value. He's very unlikely to become an offensive force, but he's an excellent rebounder and defender, so he'll do just fine. As with last update, he still has a cool +30 to add so there are some real possibilities to get much better for Josh.



8. Justin Reed - Toronto Raptors (previous: HM)
Downside: A hidden gem who has gotten the full +40, so that type of growth is done. Upside: Had decent potential as a rookie and is showing strong signs of competence already. One of the best rebounding wings in the class (#2, just behind Drejer and just ahead of Ariza), he's also decently efficient and doesn't have any glaring weaknesses. He scores a little, doesn't turn it over, and plays a little defense.



9a. Emeka Okafor - Houston Rockets (previous: NR)
9b. Andris Biedrins - Milwaukee Bucks (previous: HM)
The joint-D/R spot! Okafor makes his ladder debut! Okafor has taken the lead as the top rebounder in the class and is no worse than the 3rd best big defender. But... he doesn't score at all. He doesn't really want to score either, but even at that his P/TSA is real poor. He doesn't turn it over a lot, but given how low his usage is, it's actual not great. Biedrins lands here by default because I can't really justify Ben Gordon with 120 minutes played or any of the other meh guys in the HM section right now. Maybe Ramos or Swift have a beef. Oh well. Biedrins is more D than R, but is at least good at that.




Honorable Mentions:

Points:
Blake Stepp - Charlotte Bobcats

Wings:
Andre Emmett - Charlotte Bobcats
Ben Gordon - Utah Jazz
Vassilis Spanoulis - Vancouver Grizzlies

Bigs:
Peter John Ramos - Pittsburgh Pipers
Robert Swift - Toronto Raptors
Kris Humphries - Charlotte Hornets

[delap]

Final Update
So here's the deal... we are finishing the year with a tie because I can't decide between the two... and they are on the same team, so the whole 1k reward goes to TinyTimPig anyway. Overall this is a win for the Western Conference, where the Top 7 players (and 8 of the 10 ladder spots) are home out on the frontier. Not a lot of great depth in this class, but I see some guys that could move up tiers (rotation to starter, starter to solid starter, etc.) with a bit of TC love/luck. There are still a bevy of teenagers here that could have wild swings in their future depending on the roll of the dice in TC on their potential, including the 4 of the Top 5. Any of them that keep or increase their current potential for their final teen TC could be in for incredible careers.

1(tie). Al Jefferson - Seattle SuperSonics (previous: 1)
1(tie). Dwight Howard - Seattle SuperSonics (previous: 2)
Dwight's efficiency dipped a bit, his TOs went up a tick, while his rebounding and defense each looked slightly stronger in the few games he played since the last update before his injury. Big Al, like Dwight, has battled injuries all year, but still looks phenomenal. It does make you question the medical staff up in the Emerald City, though, that didn't work harder to prevent these developmental delays. Still the best scoring big, though his P/TSA has moved down, Jefferson is still incredibly careful with the ball despite incredibly high usage. These two may diverge in output/talent in the future, but for now, they share the crown.




3. J.R. Smith - Milwaukee Bucks (previous: 3)
Same as last update, he's a true two-way player who cab impact both sides in a substantial way. He's in a tier by himself below the Seattle-ites and above the rest of the group. He's the last guy I see as a future All-Star here.



4. Trevor Ariza - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 4a)
The first of the next tier, which I call the "Texas Tetrad", is Mr. Trevor Ariza. Putting my foot down, I like him more than Dorell Wright. He's a strong two-way player with a solid steal rate, low TOs, and high rebounds. He won't ever be a huge huge volume scorer, but he's an all-around positive for the team. If his jumpshot improves 6-9% he'll be set for a long productive career.



5. Dorell Wright - San Antonio Spurs (previous: 4b)
He's a strong scorer, but not elite at anything else. He's OK on the boards, above-average on TOs, and below-average on defensive metrics. He needs to lean into that scoring punch and he can really be valued by cap space teams looking for scoring to put them over the top.



6. Delonte West - Houston Rockets (previous: 6)
A great scoring guard in an outside outfit, West is clearly the top of the PG class, where there is a big Stepp down the the next group of players. I love his shooting splits, I'm OK with his TO rate, I don't love his defense or rebounding.



7. Josh Smith - Texas Chaparrals (previous: 7)
Bringing up the caboose of the Texas Tier, Josh Smith didn't get a lot of run this year, but really worked hard in the moments he got. His TOs need to go down and his FT% needs to go up, but the rest of the package is pretty strong already.



8. Justin Reed - Toronto Raptors (previous: 8)
I, for personal reasons, really want him to grow as a defender, but the rest of the package is pretty decent. He's a strong rebounder and is at least a somewhat average offender. His upgrades are all entered, so he's relying on his somewhat good starting potential now.



9. Emeka Okafor - Houston Rockets (previous: 9)
Pure D/R big who will never ever be a decent scorer. Probably better to lean in hard and upgrade rebounding/blocking/stealing/post D and just loving him for what he is.



10. Peter John Ramos - Pittsburgh Pipers (previous: HM)
Not stellar, but improved since the last update, PJR is an above-average big who probably profiles long-term as a 3rd big for a middling team. Is that worthwhile? Yeah, I guess. He narrowly edges out Swift for the last spot... even though Swift has more potential upside going forward. His efficiency is worthwhile and he's a biiiig boy.



Honorable Mentions:

Points:
Blake Stepp - Charlotte Bobcats

Wings:
Tony Allen - Chicago Bulls
Ben Gordon - Utah Jazz
Andre Emmett - Charlotte Bobcats

Bigs:
Robert Swift - Toronto Raptors
Rafael Araujo - Seattle SuperSonics
Kris Humprhies - Charlotte Hornets

[TinyTimPig]

80,000

[delap]

bump for votes

[Druce]

Dec 30, 2021 12:59:03 GMT -5 TinyTimPig said:

80,000

[20s]

80,000

[Trofie]

85k

[Herby New Year!]

80k