Post by Handsome Pete on Sept 6, 2021 16:44:17 GMT -5
Another year, another draft in which I will share my takes with you, the people! This class is a very interesting one, and looks pretty well balanced among positions. The big question is what will so many of these undersized players look like when they play against a league full of regular-sized players rather than each other.
I think there is one player who looks a cut above the rest, one player who I think might have a chance to be the best in class, and a couple others who may have all-star or all-league potential. The mix of older, ready-to-contribute players and younger players who could boom makes for an interesting balance in the class.
1. George Mikan C 6'10'' 245 23 B C C B A C DePaul
Mikan is probably the most well-known name in this class thanks to his dominance in the early NBA for the Minneapolis Lakers. His college stats indicate he's by far the most ready-made player in the class and might be one of the best prospects we've seen in the college stats era. If his stats hold, he'd be the most efficient scorer we've seen (ahead of Yao), the fourth best rebounder ever, provide more Stocks/bleals than Patrick Ewing, and be one of only 4 players to put up a college PER above 30 (behind Yao, Boozer, and Embiid). The turnovers stand out as the only real concern, although I have a suspicion he may be on the low end of the potential scale. The topper is that in a class full of questionable height and weight combos, Mikan's 6'10" 245 lb frame should be of little concern. It would be very hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't go first.
2. John Beckman PG 5'10'' 195 20 C B A C D B Hudson County League
While Mikan looks like the cream of the crop, I think Beckman could wind up being the best player in this class at the ends of their careers. Call me crazy, but I see shades of Kyrie in Beckman's stat line. He combines decent scoring with good ball handling, and the most promising factor is that Beckman is already firing from deep at a good clip. He's putting up the third best PER for a point guard in the college stats era, behind the aforementioned Kyrie and Kemba Walker, but unlike Kemba I think his success will be more sustainable in the big leagues because of his outside orientation. The B potential and age 20 also gives some assurance that he'll get some growth, likely in his 3s and some other categories that will be helpful for him. He already looks a little more polished defensively, averaging almost 2 steals per game, and his jumper won't need much love either. I think there's a chance that Beckman could be the biggest challenger to Kyrie's throne as King of the PGs we've seen.
3. William Gates SF 6'4'' 230 22 B C C B B B Buffalo
Microsoft Papi has cooled off a little in the 2nd stats update after looking like the clear-cut #2 behind Mikan in the first stats round. I think he's still looking mighty nice and would be a dream addition for most teams. The good with Gates is obvious: he's a capable and well-rounded scorer, putting up good efficiency thanks to a strong FG%, solid FT%, and a very nice level of 3pt shooting. He's also adding at least B- defense and above average rebounding to the picture, and he's got the potential to get better in a number of areas. His combination of 3PA/FGA and FTA/FGA are pretty rare compared to other draft classes and he looks like a souped-up version of Dennis Scott or maybe Mike Dunleavy Jr with better volume and efficiency. I think he's firmly top-3 in this draft class.
4. Dolph Schayes PF 6'8'' 220 21 C C C B A B NYU
Young Dolph doesn't look quite as dominant as his 5.0 counterpart, but there's a lot to like about his build. First, it's always a plus to see a big that is likely already maxed in his FT%, and Dolph's free throws look similar to Jonas Valanciunas or Nikola Jokic at this stage. His rebounding is also top notch, edging Mikan and trailing only Nene in collegiate production for that category. That's good news, because it means whoever drafts Dolph can feel free to dump most or all of his uppies into inside scoring and turn him into a top-notch scoring big and top-10 rebounder. His defensive grade is greater than C+ as well, so while he's not going to block shots with any regularity, he's likely not going to hurt the team the way some offensive bigs do. B potential means there's also an outside chance he could get some good shotblocking TCs and get to average there as well. The turnovers are higher than Mikan's and he's doing it on a bit less volume, so I'm a little more concerned here, but I still don't think they're bad enough that anyone else sneaks in above him.
5. Bob Cousy PG 6'1'' 175 22 C C A C C B Holy Cross
The Bill Simmons special as a Holy Cross alum and Celtic legend, the Cous has something that most point guards in this class lack: TMBSL size. Sure, 6'1 is on the lower end, but anything above 6'0 for a point guard in this class stands out like a young Andy Reid at a punt, pass, and kick contest. On-court production for Cousy is a little disappointing. He isn't necessarily bad, bt there's nothing that jumps out as elite. The handles are fine, the rebounding is solid, he shoots a good amount of 3s, and his jumper looks good. But he's nowhere near efficient as a scorer right now and I think is a tier below the top-flight PG prospect levels of college production. He's got decent potential as well and I think could easily get to all-star level with the right development, but I think his best case scenario is someone like Deron Williams.
6. Bob Pettit PF 6'9'' 205 22 B C C C B B LSU
Back to back Bobs! Odin must be salivating. Pettit is a solid all-around big, but despite sporting a better inside grade, he looks like a poor man's Dolph. He doesn't look like he'll kill you on the glass but it's not as much of a strength, and his jumper is worse as well. He also doesn't look like he'll be a natural shot blocker and his defense is below the B range. I think he's more likely to look like your standard scoring big once he gets his uppies, which is still very helpful but maybe a little easier to find.
7. Barney Sedran PG 5'5'' 165 22 C C A B C C City College of New York
Our first truly undersized player on my big board, and there are plenty of reasons the Mighty Mite should've maybe been left out. His jumper looks pretty busted, he doesn't shoot as many 3s, and lest we forget he's 5'5". But Sedran looks like he at the very least would be a highly competent back-up point, with the chance that he could be an above-average starter at point. His defense looks very good, his rebounding is surprisingly decent for such a wee little lad, and his assist to turnover ratio is third in the class behind only John Beckman and Nat Holman. If I was thinking of taking a swing on any of the undersized points, Sedran would be at the top of my list.
8. Bill Sharman SG 6'1'' 175 24 B B B C C C USC
Sharman checks in at one of the oldest ages in the class at 24, and with his C potential he's a safe bet that he's not going to get much natural growth beyond what he is now. That being said, I think Sharman shows a lot of promise for a wing. He looks like he's going to be a volume scorer in the league, putting up PPG similar to players like Joe Dumars, Bo Kimble, and (on the negative side) Kendall Gill. He's also on pace to take the most 3s of any shooting guard in the college stats era, and his FT% is a sterling .915%, so he's almost definitely capped in jumper and quite likely is close to the cap in inside as well. He's not a very good rebounder but he's not the worst, and his defense is not great but not terrible as well, at least as far as we can tell so far. One thing that concerns me that may surprise is the high number of assists. 5 assists per game is well over the next highest mark we've seen (4.2 from Phil Pressey), and it could limit his ability to reach top-flight scoring volume as his good distribution may eat into his usage as a scoring option. Even if it keeps him from reaching the upper echelons of scorers, Sharman looks like a better version of the non-profile SG build that has had so much success in 6.0.
9. Ed Wachter C 6'1'' 240 19 B C C B C A Jersey City High
Another munchkin on the board! Ed is a 6'1" center who brings high volatility but potentially huge payoffs. He's a 19 year old with A potential, meaning he's likely coming into the league with 90 or 100 potential and has a 50% chance of at least keeping that potential after his first TC. He could also go belly up like Tskitishvili and drop to 80 or lower, meaning he never even gets a tier 5 TC. I have no idea how a 6'2 center will fair in a league full of #tallboyz, but he rebounded will and already looks like an average shotblocker, so there's a chance he could blow up in both categories. He's also got a solid jump shot and is a willing scorer, so I think he's got a chance to be a two-way force. At the bottom of the top ten, I think it makes sense to gamble on blow-up potential, and I like his starting build a little bit more than Bobby McDermot's.
10. Ace Gruenig C 6'8'' 220 18 B C C B C A Crane Tech High
Speaking of dice rolls, I think Ace is a very intriguing gamble. He's a non-profile player so his starting potential will be lower than Wachter. But unlike Wachter, he's got regular size for a big and, more importantly, has an EXTRA teen TC. Starting with high potential as an 18 yr old means he's got two opportunities to keep or add to his potential (and two opportunities to plummet in potential). Gruenig could enter his 3rd year TC as a 20 year old with high 80s-low 90s potential after 2 tier 5 TCs, or he could be down around 60 potential with little to show for it. Gruenig can block some shots, is a slightly below average rebounder, and is pretty inefficient as a scorer. There's a lot of work to be done here. But the teenage TCs are too tantalizing and will tempt the team tasked with taking someone tenth.
I think there is one player who looks a cut above the rest, one player who I think might have a chance to be the best in class, and a couple others who may have all-star or all-league potential. The mix of older, ready-to-contribute players and younger players who could boom makes for an interesting balance in the class.
Handsome Pete's 3013 Big Board
All grades and stats are as of the sim 5 update.
All grades and stats are as of the sim 5 update.
1. George Mikan C 6'10'' 245 23 B C C B A C DePaul
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
55 1877 27.1 13 2.4 1.1 1.7 2.6 496 908 420 526 0 0 0.546 0.798 0 1.239 30.1Mikan is probably the most well-known name in this class thanks to his dominance in the early NBA for the Minneapolis Lakers. His college stats indicate he's by far the most ready-made player in the class and might be one of the best prospects we've seen in the college stats era. If his stats hold, he'd be the most efficient scorer we've seen (ahead of Yao), the fourth best rebounder ever, provide more Stocks/bleals than Patrick Ewing, and be one of only 4 players to put up a college PER above 30 (behind Yao, Boozer, and Embiid). The turnovers stand out as the only real concern, although I have a suspicion he may be on the low end of the potential scale. The topper is that in a class full of questionable height and weight combos, Mikan's 6'10" 245 lb frame should be of little concern. It would be very hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't go first.
2. John Beckman PG 5'10'' 195 20 C B A C D B Hudson County League
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
59 2077 16 4.1 9 1.8 0.2 1.8 356 768 155 181 57 160 0.464 0.856 0.356 1.09 20.7While Mikan looks like the cream of the crop, I think Beckman could wind up being the best player in this class at the ends of their careers. Call me crazy, but I see shades of Kyrie in Beckman's stat line. He combines decent scoring with good ball handling, and the most promising factor is that Beckman is already firing from deep at a good clip. He's putting up the third best PER for a point guard in the college stats era, behind the aforementioned Kyrie and Kemba Walker, but unlike Kemba I think his success will be more sustainable in the big leagues because of his outside orientation. The B potential and age 20 also gives some assurance that he'll get some growth, likely in his 3s and some other categories that will be helpful for him. He already looks a little more polished defensively, averaging almost 2 steals per game, and his jumper won't need much love either. I think there's a chance that Beckman could be the biggest challenger to Kyrie's throne as King of the PGs we've seen.
3. William Gates SF 6'4'' 230 22 B C C B B B Buffalo
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
53 1933 19.1 8.4 2.7 1.2 0.3 1.8 397 794 175 224 56 134 0.5 0.781 0.418 1.148 20Microsoft Papi has cooled off a little in the 2nd stats update after looking like the clear-cut #2 behind Mikan in the first stats round. I think he's still looking mighty nice and would be a dream addition for most teams. The good with Gates is obvious: he's a capable and well-rounded scorer, putting up good efficiency thanks to a strong FG%, solid FT%, and a very nice level of 3pt shooting. He's also adding at least B- defense and above average rebounding to the picture, and he's got the potential to get better in a number of areas. His combination of 3PA/FGA and FTA/FGA are pretty rare compared to other draft classes and he looks like a souped-up version of Dennis Scott or maybe Mike Dunleavy Jr with better volume and efficiency. I think he's firmly top-3 in this draft class.
4. Dolph Schayes PF 6'8'' 220 21 C C C B A B NYU
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
53 1852 18.1 13.4 3.1 1 0.2 2.8 349 726 231 276 0 0 0.481 0.837 0 1.096 20.3Young Dolph doesn't look quite as dominant as his 5.0 counterpart, but there's a lot to like about his build. First, it's always a plus to see a big that is likely already maxed in his FT%, and Dolph's free throws look similar to Jonas Valanciunas or Nikola Jokic at this stage. His rebounding is also top notch, edging Mikan and trailing only Nene in collegiate production for that category. That's good news, because it means whoever drafts Dolph can feel free to dump most or all of his uppies into inside scoring and turn him into a top-notch scoring big and top-10 rebounder. His defensive grade is greater than C+ as well, so while he's not going to block shots with any regularity, he's likely not going to hurt the team the way some offensive bigs do. B potential means there's also an outside chance he could get some good shotblocking TCs and get to average there as well. The turnovers are higher than Mikan's and he's doing it on a bit less volume, so I'm a little more concerned here, but I still don't think they're bad enough that anyone else sneaks in above him.
5. Bob Cousy PG 6'1'' 175 22 C C A C C B Holy Cross
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
54 1887 14.7 4.6 8.6 1 0.1 2.3 328 733 99 120 16 79 0.447 0.825 0.203 0.981 17The Bill Simmons special as a Holy Cross alum and Celtic legend, the Cous has something that most point guards in this class lack: TMBSL size. Sure, 6'1 is on the lower end, but anything above 6'0 for a point guard in this class stands out like a young Andy Reid at a punt, pass, and kick contest. On-court production for Cousy is a little disappointing. He isn't necessarily bad, bt there's nothing that jumps out as elite. The handles are fine, the rebounding is solid, he shoots a good amount of 3s, and his jumper looks good. But he's nowhere near efficient as a scorer right now and I think is a tier below the top-flight PG prospect levels of college production. He's got decent potential as well and I think could easily get to all-star level with the right development, but I think his best case scenario is someone like Deron Williams.
6. Bob Pettit PF 6'9'' 205 22 B C C C B B LSU
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
57 1837 15.8 10.8 2.6 1.3 0.2 2.3 292 642 213 272 11 35 0.455 0.783 0.314 1.061 17.5Back to back Bobs! Odin must be salivating. Pettit is a solid all-around big, but despite sporting a better inside grade, he looks like a poor man's Dolph. He doesn't look like he'll kill you on the glass but it's not as much of a strength, and his jumper is worse as well. He also doesn't look like he'll be a natural shot blocker and his defense is below the B range. I think he's more likely to look like your standard scoring big once he gets his uppies, which is still very helpful but maybe a little easier to find.
7. Barney Sedran PG 5'5'' 165 22 C C A B C C City College of New York
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
50 1744 14.1 4.2 9.6 1.8 0.2 2.2 296 610 78 114 13 57 0.485 0.684 0.228 1.035 19Our first truly undersized player on my big board, and there are plenty of reasons the Mighty Mite should've maybe been left out. His jumper looks pretty busted, he doesn't shoot as many 3s, and lest we forget he's 5'5". But Sedran looks like he at the very least would be a highly competent back-up point, with the chance that he could be an above-average starter at point. His defense looks very good, his rebounding is surprisingly decent for such a wee little lad, and his assist to turnover ratio is third in the class behind only John Beckman and Nat Holman. If I was thinking of taking a swing on any of the undersized points, Sedran would be at the top of my list.
8. Bill Sharman SG 6'1'' 175 24 B B B C C C USC
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
57 2017 18 5.1 5 1.2 0.2 2.1 394 859 173 189 50 150 0.459 0.915 0.333 1.073 18.2Sharman checks in at one of the oldest ages in the class at 24, and with his C potential he's a safe bet that he's not going to get much natural growth beyond what he is now. That being said, I think Sharman shows a lot of promise for a wing. He looks like he's going to be a volume scorer in the league, putting up PPG similar to players like Joe Dumars, Bo Kimble, and (on the negative side) Kendall Gill. He's also on pace to take the most 3s of any shooting guard in the college stats era, and his FT% is a sterling .915%, so he's almost definitely capped in jumper and quite likely is close to the cap in inside as well. He's not a very good rebounder but he's not the worst, and his defense is not great but not terrible as well, at least as far as we can tell so far. One thing that concerns me that may surprise is the high number of assists. 5 assists per game is well over the next highest mark we've seen (4.2 from Phil Pressey), and it could limit his ability to reach top-flight scoring volume as his good distribution may eat into his usage as a scoring option. Even if it keeps him from reaching the upper echelons of scorers, Sharman looks like a better version of the non-profile SG build that has had so much success in 6.0.
9. Ed Wachter C 6'1'' 240 19 B C C B C A Jersey City High
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
63 2048 20.5 11 4 1 0.8 2.4 435 962 282 368 14 38 0.452 0.766 0.368 1.037 21.5Another munchkin on the board! Ed is a 6'1" center who brings high volatility but potentially huge payoffs. He's a 19 year old with A potential, meaning he's likely coming into the league with 90 or 100 potential and has a 50% chance of at least keeping that potential after his first TC. He could also go belly up like Tskitishvili and drop to 80 or lower, meaning he never even gets a tier 5 TC. I have no idea how a 6'2 center will fair in a league full of #tallboyz, but he rebounded will and already looks like an average shotblocker, so there's a chance he could blow up in both categories. He's also got a solid jump shot and is a willing scorer, so I think he's got a chance to be a two-way force. At the bottom of the top ten, I think it makes sense to gamble on blow-up potential, and I like his starting build a little bit more than Bobby McDermot's.
10. Ace Gruenig C 6'8'' 220 18 B C C B C A Crane Tech High
G M P R A S B T FG FGA FT FTA 3P 3PA FG% FT% 3P% P/TSA PER
53 1593 13.2 9.7 2.6 1.3 1 2.2 236 512 111 185 0 3 0.461 0.6 0 0.982 15.1Speaking of dice rolls, I think Ace is a very intriguing gamble. He's a non-profile player so his starting potential will be lower than Wachter. But unlike Wachter, he's got regular size for a big and, more importantly, has an EXTRA teen TC. Starting with high potential as an 18 yr old means he's got two opportunities to keep or add to his potential (and two opportunities to plummet in potential). Gruenig could enter his 3rd year TC as a 20 year old with high 80s-low 90s potential after 2 tier 5 TCs, or he could be down around 60 potential with little to show for it. Gruenig can block some shots, is a slightly below average rebounder, and is pretty inefficient as a scorer. There's a lot of work to be done here. But the teenage TCs are too tantalizing and will tempt the team tasked with taking someone tenth.
