3006: Sim 3 (213 views)

[eric]

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Win Shares

expanded standings

ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS team
132.2 120.0 10.7 -4.4 9.6 76ers
123.0 120.8 3.2 -.5 5.4 Bobcats
131.6 118.4 12.4 .9 13.8 Bucks
114.6 127.3 -11.2 1.7 -8.9 Bullets
124.6 128.0 -3.8 1.3 .8 Bulls
126.1 125.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 Cavaliers
127.0 117.6 8.9 -3.9 10.6 Chaparrals
125.7 124.7 -.6 1.3 -1.5 Clippers
128.9 125.5 3.3 -4.1 6.8 Cougars
116.7 122.1 -4.9 -.5 -3.3 Grizzlies
117.9 125.8 -6.9 1.4 -4.4 Hawks
126.8 125.2 1.4 -3.3 .6 Heat
121.5 126.5 -3.8 3.1 -.3 Hornets
110.5 126.1 -13.5 -2.4 -14.8 Kings
119.7 122.5 -2.7 -3.2 -2.8 Knicks
127.2 123.9 2.7 -.9 5.9 Lakers
129.2 126.8 1.6 .4 4.4 Magic
117.5 122.7 -4.4 -2.3 -4.4 Mavericks
128.4 122.9 5.4 1.7 13.0 Nets
127.1 116.0 10.5 5.8 13.1 Pacers
122.9 121.6 1.2 -4.6 -3.3 Pipers
121.7 127.5 -6.1 3.6 .5 Raptors
107.4 127.9 -18.2 -.6 -15.9 Spurs
125.0 121.0 4.5 -2.3 5.5 Stags
123.4 120.4 3.3 -1.4 3.2 Suns
120.2 124.1 -4.4 1.2 -2.3 SuperSonics
131.0 120.5 8.6 .1 9.5 Timberwolves
119.3 123.3 -2.4 -4.7 -.3 Trail_Blazers
123.4 120.4 2.8 2.3 9.5 Warriors

ORank DRank ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS Luck xWins xSeed P'offs Odds team
2 3 131.6 118.4 12.4 .9 13.8 -4 60 1 100% .321 Bucks
8 1 127.1 116.0 10.5 5.8 13.1 -1 62 3 100% .232 Pacers
6 14 128.4 122.9 5.4 1.7 13.0 0 63 1 100% .235 Nets
9 2 127.0 117.6 8.9 -3.9 10.6 0 58 3 100% .075 Chaparrals
1 4 132.2 120.0 10.7 -4.4 9.6 0 56 4 100% .038 76ers
3 7 131.0 120.5 8.6 .1 9.5 0 56 4 100% .034 Timberwolves
16 6 123.4 120.4 2.8 2.3 9.5 -3 53 2 99% .047 Warriors
5 21 128.9 125.5 3.3 -4.1 6.8 -3 48 2 93% .010 Cougars
7 16 127.2 123.9 2.7 -.9 5.9 0 49 5 95% .002 Lakers
13 9 125.0 121.0 4.5 -2.3 5.5 0 48 6 96% .002 Stags
17 8 123.0 120.8 3.2 -.5 5.4 -4 44 6 77% .002 Bobcats
4 25 129.2 126.8 1.6 .4 4.4 0 46 5 85% .001 Magic
15 5 123.4 120.4 3.3 -1.4 3.2 0 44 7 89% .000 Suns
11 19 126.1 125.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 0 42 7 61% .000 Cavaliers
14 29 124.6 128.0 -3.8 1.3 0.8 -1 39 9 38% .000 Bulls
10 20 126.8 125.2 1.4 -3.3 0.6 2 41 8 53% .000 Heat
19 27 121.7 127.5 -6.1 3.6 0.5 -2 37 11 27% .000 Raptors
23 15 119.3 123.3 -2.4 -4.7 -0.3 -1 36 9 41% .000 Trail_Blazers
20 24 121.5 126.5 -3.8 3.1 -0.3 -1 37 12 26% .000 Hornets
12 18 125.7 124.7 -0.6 1.3 -1.5 2 37 8 43% .000 Clippers
21 17 120.2 124.1 -4.4 1.2 -2.3 -1 32 10 17% .000 SuperSonics
22 12 119.7 122.5 -2.7 -3.2 -2.8 5 37 10 24% .000 Knicks
18 10 122.9 121.6 1.2 -4.6 -3.3 4 36 13 15% .000 Pipers
26 11 116.7 122.1 -4.9 -.5 -3.3 1 32 11 13% .000 Grizzlies
24 22 117.9 125.8 -6.9 1.4 -4.4 -2 27 14 2% .000 Hawks
25 13 117.5 122.7 -4.4 -2.3 -4.4 1 30 12 7% .000 Mavericks
27 26 114.6 127.3 -11.2 1.7 -8.9 0 20 15 0% .000 Bullets
28 23 110.5 126.1 -13.5 -2.4 -14.8 2 11 13 0% .000 Kings
29 28 107.4 127.9 -18.2 -.6 -15.9 3 10 14 0% .000 Spurs

league Rtg: 123.2
ORtg - Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions)
DRtg - Defense Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
MOV  - Margin Of Victory (net points per game)
SOS  - Strength of Schedule
SRS  - Simple Rating System = MOV + SOS + correction for home court %
Luck - difference between actual wins and MOV predicted wins, positive means lucky, negative unlucky
P'offs - chance of reaching playoffs
Odds - projected fractional title odds

.

Regular Season Champion

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS


... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.1. .2. .3. .4. .5. .6. .7. .8. .9. .10 .11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .16 .17 .18 .19 .20 .21 .22 .23 .24
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .32 .33 .34 .35 .36 .37 .38 .39 .40 .41 .42 .43 .44 .45 .46 .47 .48
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.49 .50 .51 .52 .53 .54 .55 .56 .57 .58 .59 .60 .61 .62 .63 .64 .65 .66 .67 .68 .69 .70 .71 .72
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.73 .74 .75 .76 .77 .78 .79 .80 .81 .82 .83 .84 .85 .86 .87 .88 .89 .90 .91 .92 .93 .94 .95 .96
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.97 .98 .99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120

Upcoming Schedule
Warriors @ SuperSonics
Trail Blazers @ Warriors
Warriors @ Spurs
Nets @ Warriors
Warriors @ Chaparrals
No Game
No Game
Warriors @ Heat
Warriors @ Mavericks
Kings @ Warriors

[skrouse]

eric, is there a blurb somewhere about how SOS is calc'd? I'm really confused how the Pacers SOS is 14.5 times higher than the Magic.

We have a lot of common opponents.
BULLETS
Bulls
Grizzlies
Knicks
Pipers
Raptors
RAPTORS

There are 3 of which we have played on the road while the Pacers have played at home.
76ers
Hornets
Warriors

Of the uncommon opponents, the only stand out to me is the Bucks twice for the Pacers but we have the NETS, COUGARS, Cougars, STAGS and Stags which I feel should offset that a bit.

Pacers
Bobcats
Bucks
BUCKS
KNICKS
KNICKS
SUNS

vs

Magic
COUGARS
Cougars
Heat
NETS
PIPERS
Spurs
STAGS
Stags
Trail Blazers

Just curious why there is a disparity of .4 vs 5.8. Thanks

[Handsome Pete]

9-0 at home, 3-8 on the road...still room for improvement

[eric]

May 17, 2021 15:49:51 GMT -5 skrouse said:

eric, is there a blurb somewhere about how SOS is calc'd? I'm really confused how the Pacers SOS is 14.5 times higher than the Magic.

(2 * opponent's winning percentage + opponent's opponent's winning percentage) / 3

the main difference in this case is the first one and it's easier to calculate anyway so let's do that for the magic

2 cougars (1-1) leaves 8-9
1 hornets (1-0) leaves 8-10
1 heat (1-0) leaves 10-6
1 bullets (1-0) leaves 5-18
1 nets (1-0) leaves 13-2
1 bulls (1-0) leaves 9-10
1 pacers (0-1) leaves 14-5
1 knicks (1-0) leaves 14-8
1 76ers (0-1) leaves 15-7
2 pipers (0-2) leaves 9-7
2 raptors (1-1) leaves 6-11
2 stags (0-2) leaves 11-9
1 spurs (1-0) leaves 4-14
1 warriors (0-1) leaves 14-10
1 trail blazers (1-0) leaves 8-11
1 grizzlies (1-0) leaves 8-11

that adds up to 190 and 184 for .508

do the same thing for the pacers and you get 217 and 172 for .558

oow% closes it a little but that's the long and short of it

[skrouse]

Thanks

[Mike]