3004: Sim 11 (227 views)

[eric]

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expanded standings

ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS team
131.4 118.8 12.5 -.3 12.1 76ers
121.1 116.0 4.7 -.9 3.7 Bobcats
130.4 122.5 6.6 1.1 7.7 Bucks
114.8 121.0 -6.2 -2.6 -8.9 Bullets
124.9 118.2 7.2 -.5 6.8 Bulls
117.8 122.3 -3.6 -.9 -4.6 Cavaliers
133.8 120.9 13.3 .1 13.2 Chaparrals
121.0 123.2 -2.6 1.0 -1.6 Clippers
132.3 118.6 12.8 -2.1 10.6 Cougars
110.1 120.4 -8.8 1.1 -7.7 Grizzlies
107.5 122.3 -12.9 -1.2 -14.1 Hawks
113.6 122.3 -8.5 -1.1 -9.5 Heat
105.2 124.3 -17.4 -.8 -18.0 Hornets
118.1 121.9 -3.9 1.1 -2.7 Kings
112.2 126.0 -12.8 -.4 -13.1 Knicks
125.1 119.5 5.1 .3 5.4 Lakers
119.1 120.0 -.5 -2.0 -2.4 Magic
122.8 121.7 1.5 1.0 2.4 Mavericks
126.3 114.2 11.6 -2.0 9.7 Nets
123.3 113.8 8.7 -1.3 7.6 Pacers
114.7 119.3 -4.6 -2.0 -6.4 Pipers
111.7 119.4 -6.6 -.3 -6.8 Raptors
115.9 119.7 -3.4 .8 -2.5 Spurs
119.2 121.5 -1.6 1.1 -.4 Stags
116.5 120.5 -2.3 1.0 -1.4 Suns
118.8 124.5 -5.6 .7 -4.9 SuperSonics
126.3 118.2 6.4 .9 7.3 Timberwolves
126.6 122.7 4.0 .4 4.4 Trail_Blazers
128.8 118.7 8.6 1.8 10.3 Warriors

ORank DRank ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS Luck xWins xSeed P'offs Odds team
1 16 133.8 120.9 13.3 .1 13.2 -3 63 1 100% .370 Chaparrals
3 8 131.4 118.8 12.5 -.3 12.1 -5 59 3 100% .185 76ers
2 6 132.3 118.6 12.8 -2.1 10.6 3 64 1 100% .146 Cougars
5 7 128.8 118.7 8.6 1.8 10.3 -2 58 2 100% .111 Warriors
7 2 126.3 114.2 11.6 -2.0 9.7 2 62 2 100% .089 Nets
4 24 130.4 122.5 6.6 1.1 7.7 -3 53 3 100% .026 Bucks
11 1 123.3 113.8 8.7 -1.3 7.6 2 58 4 100% .022 Pacers
8 4 126.3 118.2 6.4 .9 7.3 -3 52 6 100% .020 Timberwolves
10 5 124.9 118.2 7.2 -.5 6.8 -4 50 5 100% .014 Bulls
9 11 125.1 119.5 5.1 .3 5.4 1 52 4 100% .009 Lakers
6 25 126.6 122.7 4.0 .4 4.4 2 52 5 100% .004 Trail_Blazers
13 3 121.1 116.0 4.7 -.9 3.7 2 50 6 100% .002 Bobcats
12 19 122.8 121.7 1.5 1.0 2.4 0 46 7 98% .001 Mavericks
15 18 119.2 121.5 -1.6 1.1 -0.4 -7 34 11 1% .000 Stags
20 15 116.5 120.5 -2.3 1.0 -1.4 1 39 8 52% .000 Suns
14 26 121.0 123.2 -2.6 1.0 -1.6 -2 36 10 5% .000 Clippers
16 13 119.1 120.0 -0.5 -2.0 -2.4 8 45 7 100% .000 Magic
21 12 115.9 119.7 -3.4 .8 -2.5 2 39 9 44% .000 Spurs
18 20 118.1 121.9 -3.9 1.1 -2.7 -5 32 12 0% .000 Kings
19 22 117.8 122.3 -3.6 -.9 -4.6 1 34 8 63% .000 Cavaliers
17 28 118.8 124.5 -5.6 .7 -4.9 -6 27 13 0% .000 SuperSonics
23 9 114.7 119.3 -4.6 -2.0 -6.4 -3 27 12 1% .000 Pipers
26 10 111.7 119.4 -6.6 -.3 -6.8 4 33 9 22% .000 Raptors
27 14 110.1 120.4 -8.8 1.1 -7.7 -1 26 14 0% .000 Grizzlies
22 17 114.8 121.0 -6.2 -2.6 -8.9 2 27 11 0% .000 Bullets
24 21 113.6 122.3 -8.5 -1.1 -9.5 8 32 10 14% .000 Heat
25 29 112.2 126.0 -12.8 -.4 -13.1 0 17 13 0% .000 Knicks
28 23 107.5 122.3 -12.9 -1.2 -14.1 -1 14 14 0% .000 Hawks
29 27 105.2 124.3 -17.4 -.8 -18.0 4 12 15 0% .000 Hornets

league Rtg: 120.5
ORtg - Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions)
DRtg - Defense Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
MOV  - Margin Of Victory (net points per game)
SOS  - Strength of Schedule
SRS  - Simple Rating System = MOV + SOS + correction for home court %
Luck - difference between actual wins and MOV predicted wins, positive means lucky, negative unlucky
P'offs - chance of reaching playoffs
Odds - projected fractional title odds

.

Regular Season Champion

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS


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.25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .32 .33 .34 .35 .36 .37 .38 .39 .40 .41 .42 .43 .44 .45 .46 .47 .48
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.49 .50 .51 .52 .53 .54 .55 .56 .57 .58 .59 .60 .61 .62 .63 .64 .65 .66 .67 .68 .69 .70 .71 .72
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.73 .74 .75 .76 .77 .78 .79 .80 .81 .82 .83 .84 .85 .86 .87 .88 .89 .90 .91 .92 .93 .94 .95 .96
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.97 .98 .99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120

Upcoming Schedule
No Game
No Game
SuperSonics @ Warriors
Bullets @ Warriors
Chaparrals @ Warriors
Warriors @ Clippers
Warriors @ Pipers
Warriors @ Hornets
No Game
Warriors @ Suns

[skrouse]

4-1 sim, beat the Pipers, Knicks and Raptors but I'll take it

[b. A. (good 2023)]

Apr 19, 2021 13:08:01 GMT -5 skrouse said:

4-1 sim, beat the Pipers, Knicks and Raptors but I'll take it

I see my "luck" at -3, then i see yours at +8.

then I see you beat the Pipers by 1 point. This checks out. 

[skrouse]

Apr 19, 2021 14:42:01 GMT -5 b. A. (good 2023) said:

Apr 19, 2021 13:08:01 GMT -5 skrouse said:

4-1 sim, beat the Pipers, Knicks and Raptors but I'll take it

I see my "luck" at -3, then i see yours at +8.

then I see you beat the Pipers by 1 point. This checks out. 

"Luck" is a bit misleading, it's based on "predicted wins". 

"Luck - difference between actual wins and MOV predicted wins, positive means lucky, negative unlucky"

IMO - Ball sim don't lie

[Ankly]

Just no luck at all for the Knicks this year. SMH

[20s]

Apr 19, 2021 14:45:58 GMT -5 skrouse said:

Apr 19, 2021 14:42:01 GMT -5 b. A. (good 2023) said:

I see my "luck" at -3, then i see yours at +8.

then I see you beat the Pipers by 1 point. This checks out. 

"Luck" is a bit misleading, it's based on "predicted wins". 

"Luck - difference between actual wins and MOV predicted wins, positive means lucky, negative unlucky"

IMO - Ball sim don't lie

I wouldn't say it's misleading.  You've been outscored on the season but are 9 games over .500.

[skrouse]

Apr 19, 2021 14:51:37 GMT -5 20s said:

Apr 19, 2021 14:45:58 GMT -5 skrouse said:

"Luck" is a bit misleading, it's based on "predicted wins". 

"Luck - difference between actual wins and MOV predicted wins, positive means lucky, negative unlucky"

IMO - Ball sim don't lie

I wouldn't say it's misleading.  You've been outscored on the season but are 9 games over .500.

Lose big, win small, but a win's a win.

[skrouse]

And we're 4-0 vs the Pipers with the 1 pt win being the outlier

[20s]

Apr 19, 2021 15:01:31 GMT -5 skrouse said:

Apr 19, 2021 14:51:37 GMT -5 20s said:

I wouldn't say it's misleading.  You've been outscored on the season but are 9 games over .500.

Lose big, win small, but a win's a win.

No ones saying you didn’t win those games

[skrouse]

Apr 19, 2021 15:03:14 GMT -5 20s said:

Apr 19, 2021 15:01:31 GMT -5 skrouse said:

Lose big, win small, but a win's a win.

No ones saying you didn’t win those games

True, but I still think the term "Luck Rating" is misleading.

[Trofie]

Bucks are just unlucky on the defensive end