3004: Sim 3 (273 views)

[eric]

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Win Shares

expanded standings

ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS team
132.8 121.2 11.6 2.8 16.1 76ers
120.0 112.6 6.5 -1.6 4.6 Bobcats
129.6 124.9 4.3 3.8 11.2 Bucks
111.2 121.1 .8 -9.4 -7.8 Bullets
121.4 118.4 3.7 -.5 8.6 Bulls
118.8 119.0 -9.0 5.4 -1.8 Cavaliers
136.3 121.5 15.5 5.0 16.5 Chaparrals
123.2 121.7 .2 4.1 7.2 Clippers
130.4 120.5 9.0 -3.9 8.9 Cougars
111.4 117.9 -4.4 3.3 -3.9 Grizzlies
109.9 121.2 -10.0 -.9 -8.1 Hawks
114.7 115.7 -1.4 -6.8 -9.2 Heat
101.7 122.4 -18.9 1.1 -15.5 Hornets
119.2 124.3 -5.6 1.6 -5.8 Kings
112.8 123.6 -9.5 -2.3 -8.8 Knicks
124.6 118.8 5.3 .8 8.0 Lakers
120.0 121.6 -1.8 .1 -.6 Magic
122.2 122.2 .6 -.4 5.0 Mavericks
129.3 116.8 11.8 1.2 13.7 Nets
122.5 111.5 10.4 2.8 12.1 Pacers
117.9 120.1 -2.9 -4.1 -6.2 Pipers
111.7 119.0 -6.0 8.4 -1.6 Raptors
113.6 125.5 -11.8 1.7 -5.1 Spurs
118.6 120.9 -.7 .5 -3.5 Stags
115.1 118.8 -1.9 -.8 -3.6 Suns
118.4 127.8 -9.7 1.9 -2.2 SuperSonics
125.4 116.0 7.8 -6.0 -.5 Timberwolves
124.6 124.3 -.2 1.8 10.7 Trail_Blazers
127.9 120.2 5.5 -2.9 5.9 Warriors

ORank DRank ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS Luck xWins xSeed P'offs Odds team
1 19 136.3 121.5 15.5 5.0 16.5 0 70 1 100% .460 Chaparrals
2 17 132.8 121.2 11.6 2.8 16.1 -5 65 1 100% .303 76ers
5 5 129.3 116.8 11.8 1.2 13.7 -4 61 4 100% .080 Nets
11 1 122.5 111.5 10.4 2.8 12.1 0 62 3 100% .068 Pacers
4 27 129.6 124.9 4.3 3.8 11.2 -5 55 3 100% .038 Bucks
8 26 124.6 124.3 -0.2 1.8 10.7 -5 54 2 100% .031 Trail_Blazers
3 14 130.4 120.5 9.0 -3.9 8.9 2 57 2 100% .012 Cougars
13 7 121.4 118.4 3.7 -.5 8.6 -3 52 5 100% .002 Bulls
9 9 124.6 118.8 5.3 .8 8.0 0 53 4 99% .003 Lakers
10 21 123.2 121.7 0.2 4.1 7.2 -2 50 5 98% .002 Clippers
6 13 127.9 120.2 5.5 -2.9 5.9 0 50 6 96% .001 Warriors
12 22 122.2 122.2 0.6 -.4 5.0 -2 46 7 91% .000 Mavericks
15 2 120.0 112.6 6.5 -1.6 4.6 3 50 6 99% .000 Bobcats
7 4 125.4 116.0 7.8 -6.0 -0.5 2 39 8 59% .000 Timberwolves
14 20 120.0 121.6 -1.8 .1 -0.6 1 38 7 79% .000 Magic
25 10 111.7 119.0 -6.0 8.4 -1.6 -1 34 8 51% .000 Raptors
17 11 118.8 119.0 -9.0 5.4 -1.8 -3 32 9 42% .000 Cavaliers
19 29 118.4 127.8 -9.7 1.9 -2.2 -2 32 11 13% .000 SuperSonics
18 15 118.6 120.9 -0.7 .5 -3.5 1 32 10 12% .000 Stags
21 8 115.1 118.8 -1.9 -.8 -3.6 4 35 9 22% .000 Suns
26 6 111.4 117.9 -4.4 3.3 -3.9 0 30 12 7% .000 Grizzlies
23 28 113.6 125.5 -11.8 1.7 -5.1 -1 27 13 3% .000 Spurs
16 25 119.2 124.3 -5.6 1.6 -5.8 0 27 14 2% .000 Kings
20 12 117.9 120.1 -2.9 -4.1 -6.2 1 27 11 8% .000 Pipers
27 16 111.2 121.1 0.8 -9.4 -7.8 7 29 10 14% .000 Bullets
28 18 109.9 121.2 -10.0 -.9 -8.1 1 22 13 1% .000 Hawks
24 24 112.8 123.6 -9.5 -2.3 -8.8 1 21 14 1% .000 Knicks
22 3 114.7 115.7 -1.4 -6.8 -9.2 7 27 12 5% .000 Heat
29 23 101.7 122.4 -18.9 1.1 -15.5 1 8 15 0% .000 Hornets

league Rtg: 120.3
ORtg - Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions)
DRtg - Defense Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
MOV  - Margin Of Victory (net points per game)
SOS  - Strength of Schedule
SRS  - Simple Rating System = MOV + SOS + correction for home court %
Luck - difference between actual wins and MOV predicted wins, positive means lucky, negative unlucky
P'offs - chance of reaching playoffs
Odds - projected fractional title odds

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Regular Season Champion

CAROLINA COUGARS


... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.1. .2. .3. .4. .5. .6. .7. .8. .9. .10 .11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .16 .17 .18 .19 .20 .21 .22 .23 .24
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.25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .32 .33 .34 .35 .36 .37 .38 .39 .40 .41 .42 .43 .44 .45 .46 .47 .48
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.49 .50 .51 .52 .53 .54 .55 .56 .57 .58 .59 .60 .61 .62 .63 .64 .65 .66 .67 .68 .69 .70 .71 .72
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.73 .74 .75 .76 .77 .78 .79 .80 .81 .82 .83 .84 .85 .86 .87 .88 .89 .90 .91 .92 .93 .94 .95 .96
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
.97 .98 .99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120

Upcoming Schedule
No Game
No Game
Suns @ Cougars
Pipers @ Cougars
SuperSonics @ Cougars
Nets @ Cougars
Kings @ Cougars
Cougars @ Nets
Trail Blazers @ Cougars
Cougars @ Knicks

[eric]

we have also added a smoothing element to the win shares projections like the xWins one: in sim 3 the system only gives 70% of the projected value and the remaining 30% is league average, in sim 6 the values are 85% and 15%, and in sims 9 and 12 the projected value is given full 100% weight

[skrouse]

Good week in basketball for Mr. Villanueva

Charlie Villanueva 1 PF 4 36.0 33.3 12.3 1.5 1.8 0.3 1.3 .568 .558 1.000 1.167 27.5

[TinyTimPig]

[Handsome Pete]

Lake show leading the division at the quarter pole. Slokar continues to score well with Gasol

[Herby New Year!]

Beat the 76ers. Lose to the Heat. Guess we went 1-1 vs. bankz this sim.