Handsome Pete
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Post by Handsome Pete on Mar 30, 2021 16:36:23 GMT -5
110k
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Post by 20s on Mar 30, 2021 16:57:00 GMT -5
Another spin on the original chart: This uses O Rank and D Rank relative to the rest of the league instead of the raw values (we have seen O Rtg rise across the league since creation and D Rtg raw values have also gone up). For example, the 3000 Mavs have the best D Rtg to win the championship at 108 points per 100 possessions, but that actually ranked 11th among teams in 3000, which is the worst D Rank of any champion thus far.  Previous Champs:| Team | O Rank | D Rank | | 3000 Mavs | 1 | 11 | | 3001 Grizzlies | 6 | 5 | | 3002 76ers | 1 | 4 |
So we can see no one with worse than the 6th offense has won the title yet, and 2 of the 3 champs were the best offense in the league. No one with a defense worse than 11th has won a title, and the other two were both in the top 5. This year:| Team | O Rank | D Rank | | 76ers | 2 | 3 | | Cougars | 1 | 6 | | Chaparrals | 4 | 8 | | Bucks | 3 | 5 | | Nets | 8 | 2 | | Trail Blazers | 9 | 1 | | Grizzlies | 5 | 13 | | Hawks | 7 | 4 | | Bulls | 6 | 11 |
One final metric I am going to look at is the sum of O Rank and D Rank. The previous champs O Rank + D Rank was 12, 11, and 5. So the highest combined total we have seen win it all is 12. If we look at teams this year currently with O Rank + D Rank of 12 or under, we get: - 76ers - 5
- Cougars - 7
- Bucks - 8
- Nets - 10
- Trail Blazers - 10
- Hawks 11
- Chaparrals - 12
As the only teams meeting the criteria of previous champs. Food for thought.
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Handsome Pete
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Post by Handsome Pete on Mar 30, 2021 17:00:25 GMT -5
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Post by eric on Mar 31, 2021 8:50:53 GMT -5
great stuff 20s
one thing i sometimes use is ORtg/lgORtg (and inverse for DRtg), that way you can avoid issues from teams not being distributed homogenously by rank
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Post by Trofie on Mar 31, 2021 9:22:00 GMT -5
140k. This is probably the best content er get and its updated constantly
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Post by skrouse on Mar 31, 2021 9:45:42 GMT -5
100K
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Soup
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Post by Soup on Mar 31, 2021 9:49:48 GMT -5
100K
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bankz
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Post by bankz on Mar 31, 2021 14:33:02 GMT -5
100K
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Post by 20s on Mar 31, 2021 14:40:42 GMT -5
great stuff 20s one thing i sometimes use is ORtg/lgORtg (and inverse for DRtg), that way you can avoid issues from teams not being distributed homogenously by rank Do you publish lgORtg and lgDRtg anywhere? |
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Post by eric on Mar 31, 2021 15:18:27 GMT -5
great stuff 20s one thing i sometimes use is ORtg/lgORtg (and inverse for DRtg), that way you can avoid issues from teams not being distributed homogenously by rank Do you publish lgORtg and lgDRtg anywhere? i do not, but i will going forwards in the sim posts also i found out just now i was still using the 4.0 .555 modifier for fta, which isn't right anymore, so here are the sim 12 numbers from previous years. it doesn't change anything about srs or fracs but comparing rtg to rtg going forward it would 3002 avg 117.2 ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS team
131.4 113.3 17.7 -.2 17.5 76ers
122.8 118.0 3.7 -.1 3.7 Bobcats
123.5 111.8 11.3 -.3 11.1 Bucks
114.6 119.0 -3.2 .6 -2.6 Bullets
113.8 119.7 -5.6 .6 -5.0 Bulls
108.4 119.8 -9.6 -.3 -9.8 Cavaliers
127.6 115.2 12.5 -.4 12.0 Chaparrals
111.6 118.7 -6.7 .1 -6.7 Clippers
126.7 115.8 10.0 -.1 9.9 Cougars
127.0 115.2 12.0 -.3 11.8 Grizzlies
127.0 113.1 13.2 -.5 12.7 Hawks
104.0 121.8 -16.0 .2 -15.7 Heat
109.3 121.1 -10.7 .6 -10.0 Hornets
109.0 121.9 -12.1 .1 -12.0 Kings
128.0 116.6 9.5 -.1 9.4 Knicks
109.0 119.6 -8.8 .1 -8.7 Lakers
114.5 118.6 -4.1 -.3 -4.5 Magic
130.1 115.1 14.9 -.3 14.6 Mavericks
125.4 112.6 11.8 -.1 11.6 Nets
125.2 117.1 7.2 -.5 6.7 Pacers
110.5 119.6 -8.0 .4 -7.6 Pipers
105.1 119.0 -12.0 .8 -11.2 Raptors
113.8 115.3 -.9 -.1 -1.0 Spurs
108.1 120.5 -11.7 .1 -11.6 Stags
105.3 119.3 -11.9 .1 -11.8 Suns
116.2 119.0 -2.0 .1 -1.9 SuperSonics
112.3 118.2 -5.0 .0 -5.0 Timberwolves
121.7 115.1 7.3 -.2 7.1 Trail_Blazers
117.1 119.0 -2.9 .0 -2.9 Warriors
3001 avg 115.3 ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS team
125.0 109.0 15.0 -.1 14.9 76ers
124.1 112.7 9.7 .4 10.0 Bobcats
118.8 113.7 5.6 -.3 5.3 Bucks
118.0 113.7 4.0 .1 4.1 Bullets
109.6 118.6 -7.5 .5 -7.0 Bulls
100.4 119.2 -16.4 -.1 -16.5 Cavaliers
117.9 115.0 3.6 -.2 3.4 Chaparrals
124.6 114.3 10.5 -.4 10.2 Clippers
126.0 113.2 11.6 .1 11.7 Cougars
124.3 113.6 11.1 -.5 10.6 Grizzlies
122.4 111.9 9.6 -.1 9.6 Hawks
105.8 119.0 -11.9 -.2 -12.1 Heat
109.3 116.7 -5.4 .8 -4.6 Hornets
110.2 119.3 -7.1 -.1 -7.2 Kings
115.2 115.7 -1.1 -.2 -1.3 Knicks
111.0 116.3 -5.3 -.1 -5.4 Lakers
118.2 114.0 4.5 .5 4.9 Magic
127.5 114.1 12.7 -.4 12.3 Mavericks
101.9 117.5 -13.2 .3 -13.0 Nets
122.3 114.6 5.4 .2 5.6 Pacers
108.0 118.4 -9.6 .3 -9.3 Pipers
122.8 114.0 7.3 .3 7.5 Raptors
110.1 116.7 -5.6 -.1 -5.7 Spurs
108.6 117.0 -7.3 -.1 -7.4 Stags
116.9 116.8 -.3 -.1 -.4 Suns
113.5 116.5 -2.1 -.2 -2.3 SuperSonics
102.5 116.0 -11.4 .0 -11.4 Timberwolves
118.1 115.3 2.9 -.3 2.6 Trail_Blazers
109.8 119.5 -9.1 -.1 -9.3 Warriors
3000 avg 112.0 ORtg DRtg MOV SOS SRS team
103.8 113.0 -6.6 1.0 -5.6 76ers
123.8 109.3 13.1 .5 13.7 Bobcats
106.6 114.0 -7.1 -1.0 -8.0 Bucks
117.2 110.7 6.5 .5 7.0 Bullets
107.9 114.4 -6.1 1.6 -4.5 Bulls
106.4 115.2 -7.3 1.1 -6.2 Pelicans
113.7 110.6 2.7 -1.2 1.5 Chaparrals
123.9 109.0 14.6 -1.5 13.1 Clippers
110.9 111.8 -1.0 1.2 .2 Cougars
122.7 107.6 14.5 -1.4 13.1 Grizzlies
116.5 107.8 7.3 .9 8.3 Hawks
110.7 114.4 -3.1 1.1 -1.9 Heat
107.4 114.7 -6.7 1.6 -5.1 Hornets
102.1 113.8 -9.1 -.9 -10.0 Kings
115.8 111.3 4.0 .5 4.5 Knicks
105.8 111.0 -4.7 -1.1 -5.8 Lakers
121.8 109.9 11.4 1.1 12.5 Magic
128.2 111.4 15.4 -1.5 13.8 Mavericks
103.4 112.5 -7.0 .9 -6.1 Nets
117.7 113.2 2.9 1.3 4.2 Pacers
108.1 115.6 -6.0 1.4 -4.6 Pipers
122.5 108.7 10.9 1.2 12.1 Raptors
102.6 115.5 -9.9 -.9 -10.8 Spurs
104.2 114.2 -9.4 -1.1 -10.5 Stags
117.4 111.7 4.8 -1.4 3.4 Suns
108.9 113.3 -3.2 -1.1 -4.4 SuperSonics
105.5 112.1 -5.5 -1.1 -6.6 Timberwolves
110.1 115.5 -4.6 -1.0 -5.6 Trail_Blazers
101.8 114.5 -10.7 -.9 -11.6 Warriors
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Post by 20s on Apr 2, 2021 11:20:46 GMT -5
Updated through Sim 11:
 This chart was adjusted after eric was able to provide corrected numbers for the previous seasons. This really made it apparent how much the scoring has increased throughout the history of the league. The Mavs were the "worst" defensive team to win the title in their season (at barely above average), but they were the "best" defensive team to win it all in terms of how many points they allowed per 100 possessions. That isn't surprising, we all know the league has been improved since that creation season. Another crazy thing is the best defensive teams this year still allow more points per 100 possessions than any of the previous champions. To illustrate further how much the league average points per possession have increased throughout the seasons, I am including this chart:  We can see that the average has increased each season from the previous with the largest increase coming between Year 1 and Year 2. In year 4, the league is now scoring 7.4 points more per 100 possessions than we did in the creation season. So what does this mean? The standards have changed for what is a good defense and what is a good offense over the years. Therefore, it isn't the most accurate to use the raw O Rtg and D Rtg numbers from the first chart if we are trying to compare teams from the current season to previous champions. I will still include the original chart as it is useful to show comparison between all of the teams from this season as well as to give us indication on how the league has changed over the years. I am going to include two other numbers to compare this season's teams to previous champs: the O Rank and D Rank chart that I included last update as well as what I am calling O Rtg+ and D Rtg+. The Rtg+ stats are what eric suggested: O Rtg / leagueAvgRtg and D Rtg / leagueAvgRtg. What these numbers show is how good your offense is relative to the league that season and how good your defense is relative to the league that season. The numbers will be a percentage (over 100% is above average for ORtg+, below 100% is above average for DRtg+).  This chart tells us that the 76ers, Bucks, Cougars, and Chaps really fit the profiles of the previous champions the best. They each have an O Rank and D Rank better than the "worst" previous champion in that category. The Nets with their #1 ranked defense would become the highest ranked defense to ever win the title, but we haven't yet seen an offense ranked 7th or worse win a championship in 6.0.  I love this metric and this chart so h/t to eric for the suggestion. It puts all seasons on an even playing field. The craziest thing about this chart is that it shows that the 3000 Mavericks championship offense (which scored less points per 100 possessions than four of the contenders this year and the champion 76ers from 3003 was actually the most dominant offense the league has seen in 4 seasons. They scored 114.5% more points per 100 than the league average that season. The closest this year is the 76ers at 111.7% more than league average. So even though the Mavs only scored 128.2 pts per 100 that season and the 76ers and Cougars are scoring 133.4 and 133.2 respectively this year, offense is up leaguewide so they aren't as dominant compared to their competition as the Mavs were in 3000. This chart really seems to highlight the 76ers, Cougars, Bucks and Chaps as the teams that best fit the profiles of the previous champions, but I wouldn't count out the Nets with their elite defense, and as we are going to see in the h2h updates, I think you have to consider the Grizzlies a threat despite where they are on the chart.  - I removed the Mavs and Bobcats from the ranks charts as they are not really in the contender status any longer. I am sure doing this likely ensures that the Bobcats upset my Cougars in round 1 of the playoffs.
- The 76ers and Cougars both rank 1st in 3 categories and 2nd in another category.
- The Bucks, despite their strong O Rtg and D Rtg, aren't particularly high in any other categories. But with a healthy Al Horford, you have to imagine that would have given them a big boost in many categories.
- The Pacers are near the bottom in many of the categories so it may be safe to remove them from the list as well, but they did upgrade at PG late in the season when they traded Staten and moved Ramon Sessions into their starting lineup.
Head to Head W-L:
 The 76ers and Bucks have performed the best against the other top teams which is no surprise. The Cougars are just above .500 which may be a red flag. The Grizzlies with the 3rd best overall record is somewhat surprising, but that becomes even more interesting when we break down the records by East and West...  Most teams have performed better against the West's contenders than the East's but it is extreme for the Grizzlies. They are only 5-8 vs the East, but an amazing 13-2 vs their West peers. A record that strong really caught my eye and makes me think the Grizzlies are someone to watch out for in the West playoffs.    
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2021 11:34:59 GMT -5
amend previous vote from 80k to 120k
if you do this every year and for every sim like this 120k everytime imo
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Post by Sapular on Apr 2, 2021 13:37:31 GMT -5
Sweet lord this is deep and thurough. Amazing work here sir.
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Post by 20s on Apr 2, 2021 13:41:41 GMT -5
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